September 16th USGCRP Seminar on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
tsocci at usgcrp.gov
Wed Sep 11 16:07:47 EDT 1996
U.S. Global Change Research Program Second Monday Seminar Series
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios: Their Content, Assumptions, and Implications
What are present levels and mix of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Which
countries are the largest GHG emitters now and which will be the largest
emitters in the future? What does it mean to stabilize emissions at a
certain level versus stabilizing emissions at a certain concentration?
What will it take to reduce emissions?. What options are available for
reducing emissions on a scale that would be effective?
Monday, September 16, 1996, 3:15-4:45 PM
Rayburn House Office Bldg., Room B369
Jane Leggett Emil, Director of the Climate, Policy, and Programs Division,
Office of Economy and Environment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Gregg Marland, Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
William J. Pepper, Senior Vice President, ICF Kaiser International, Inc.,
The atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas CO2 is increasing, and
it is increasing now largely because of the combustion of fossil fuels.
Since the beginning of the fossil fuel era, we have released over 250
billion metric tons of carbon (C) from fossil fuels to the atmosphere as
CO2, and the rate of release now exceeds 6 billion tons of C per year.
Prior to the fossil fuel era the atmosphere contained about 600 billion
tons of C as CO2. Emissions in 1995 were greater than the sum of all
emissions prior to 1883 and fully half of all emissions have been since
1972. In 1950 the US, USSR, and UK were the top three fossil-fuel-burning
countries and contributed 62% of global total CO2 emissions from fossil
fuels. By 1990, these three countries contributed 42% of the total, while
the UK had dropped to 7th behind more rapidly growing China, Japan,
Germany, and India. From 1950 to 1990 global, per capita emissions of CO2
from fossil fuels increased by a factor of 1.8 while global population
increased by a factor of 2.1. These two factors caused annual CO2
emissions to go up by a factor of 3.7.
Historical Perspective on CO2 Emissions
In this seminar Dr. Marland will describe the history and pattern of CO2
emissions, where they come from in the economy and where they come from in
the world. Dr. Marland will also discuss some rules for estimating
national CO-2 emissions and the significance and accuracy of the estimates.
There are four primary conclusions: (1) anthropogenic emissions,
dominantly from the burning of fossil-fuels, are responsible for the
increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere; (2) current emissions
are dominantly from a small number of developed and/or large, populous
countries; (3) there are wide disparities in per capita emissions rates
around the world; and (4) growth rates of emissions and the potential for
growth in emissions are very large in some developing parts of the world.
The Future of CO2 Emissions
Mr. Pepper will describe the emissions scenarios prepared in support of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1992 and 1995
assessment reports. He will also describe the size of emissions reductions
required to meet various CO2 emission concentration targets. These scenarios
were developed as part of the IPCC assessment process so that the science
community would have a consistent set of emissions profiles to use in
evaluating and comparing their more detailed climate models and they have
been used by the IPCC and others for projections of future changes in
concentrations of greenhouse gases. These scenarios do not represent political
commitments or negotiating positions.
Mr. Pepper will describe the sources of greenhouse gas emissions and the
key variables and assumptions expected to influence future emissions
levels. He will summarize the results of the scenarios and the
uncertainties surrounding the emissions estimates.
He will then consider several hypothetical concentration targets and
describe the reductions in emissions that would be required to meet them.
The impacts on emissions of changes in energy use or use of alternatives to
carbon-based fuels will also be addressed.
Gregg Marland is a Senior Research Staff Member in the Environmental
Sciences Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For over 20 years he
has been involved in analyses of global change and the environmental
impacts of energy systems. He has studied the sources and some of the
potential mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions and has helped
define the methodologies and emissions coefficients now in use for
estimating CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. He is currently convener for
the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA), an activity within the
International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project. Among other
activities, Dr. Marland has served on the National Academy of Sciences
panel on "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming", the Council on
Agricultural Science and Technology panel on "Preparing U.S. Agriculture
for Global Climate Change", the National Technical Advisory Committee of
the National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC), and has
been reviewer, contributor, and lead author for various portions of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first and second
assessment reports. He is co-editor of a recent volume on Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Response Policies in Central and Eastern Europe, co-author of
the Graz/Oak Ridge Carbon Assessment Model (GORCAM), an integrated forest/
forest-products model designed to evaluate the impact of forest management
alternatives on net flows of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and the U.S.
team leader on an International Energy Agency, Biomass Agreement, task on
biomass fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. Dr. Marland received a BS from
Virginia Tech, and a Ph.D. in Geology from the University of Minnesota.
William J. Pepper is a Senior Vice President of ICF Kaiser International,
Inc. with more than seventeen years of experience in analyzing and
modeling environmental and energy issues. Mr. Pepper started at ICF in
1979 and specialized in modeling U.S. and international oil and gas markets
for both federal and private clients. Since 1987, he has specialized in
modeling future emissions of greenhouse gases. Mr. Pepper developed the
Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) for the U.S. EPA. He developed
emissions scenarios for the IPCC in 1990 and also assisted the IPCC
Energy and Industry Subgroup with developing their integrated analysis of
options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Mr. Pepper was a key
author of the 1992 scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Mr. Pepper has a B.S. in Mathematics from the
University of Maryland and an M.A. in Mathematics fromTemple University.
The Next Seminar is scheduled for Monday, October 21, 1996
Topic - Ecological Indicators of Climate Change
For more information please contact:
Anthony D. Socci, Ph.D., U.S. Global Change Research Program Office
300 D St., SW, Suite 840, Washington, DC 20024
Telephone: (202) 651-8244; Fax: (202) 554-6715
E-Mail: TSOCCI at USGCRP.GOV.
Additional information on the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
and this Seminar Series is available on the USGCRP Home Page at:
http://www.usgcrp.gov. Normally these seminars are held on the second
Monday of each month.
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