September 16th USGCRP Seminar on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

[Tony Socci]

              U.S. Global Change Research Program Second Monday Seminar Series 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios: Their Content, Assumptions, and Implications 


   What are present levels and mix of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Which 
   countries are the largest GHG emitters now and which will be the largest 
   emitters in the future?  What does it mean to stabilize emissions at a 
   certain level versus stabilizing emissions at a certain concentration? 
   What will it take to reduce emissions?.  What options are available for 
            reducing emissions on a scale that would be effective? 

                                                            Public Invited 


                                    Monday, September 16, 1996, 3:15-4:45 PM 
                                       Rayburn House Office Bldg., Room B369 
                                                     Reception Following 


INTRODUCTION 

Jane Leggett Emil, Director of the Climate, Policy, and Programs Division, 
Office of Economy and Environment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 
Washington, DC 

SPEAKERS 

Gregg Marland, Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National 
Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 

William J. Pepper, Senior Vice President, ICF Kaiser International, Inc., 
Fairfax, VA 


                                                            Overview 

The atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas CO2 is increasing, and 
it is increasing now largely because of the combustion of fossil fuels. 
Since the beginning of the fossil fuel era, we have released over 250 
billion metric tons of carbon (C) from fossil fuels to the atmosphere as 
CO2, and the rate of release now exceeds 6 billion tons of C per year. 
Prior to the fossil fuel era the atmosphere contained about 600 billion 
tons of C as CO2.  Emissions in 1995 were greater than the sum of all 
emissions prior to 1883 and fully half of all emissions have been since 
1972.  In 1950 the US, USSR, and UK were the top three fossil-fuel-burning 
countries and contributed 62% of global total CO2 emissions from fossil 
fuels.  By 1990, these three countries contributed 42% of the total, while 
the UK had dropped to 7th behind more rapidly growing China, Japan, 
Germany, and India.  From 1950 to 1990 global, per capita emissions of CO2 
from fossil fuels increased by a factor of 1.8 while global population 
increased by a factor of 2.1.  These two factors caused annual CO2 
emissions to go up by a factor of 3.7. 

                                  Historical Perspective on CO2 Emissions 

In this seminar Dr. Marland will describe the history and pattern of CO2 
emissions, where they come from in the economy and where they come from in 
the world.  Dr. Marland will also discuss some rules for estimating 
national CO-2 emissions and the significance and accuracy of the estimates. 
There are four primary conclusions: (1) anthropogenic emissions, 
dominantly from the burning of fossil-fuels, are responsible for the 
increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere; (2) current emissions 
are dominantly from a small number of developed and/or large, populous 
countries; (3) there are wide disparities in per capita emissions rates 
around the world; and (4) growth rates of emissions and the potential for 
growth in emissions are very large in some developing parts of the world. 

                                         The Future of CO2 Emissions 

Mr. Pepper will describe the emissions scenarios prepared in support of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1992 and 1995 
assessment reports.  He will also describe the size of emissions reductions 
required to meet various CO2 emission concentration targets.  These scenarios 
were developed as part of the IPCC assessment process so that the science 
community would have a consistent set of emissions profiles to use in 
evaluating and comparing their more detailed climate models and they have 
been used by the IPCC and others for projections of future changes in 
concentrations of greenhouse gases.  These scenarios do not represent political 
commitments or negotiating positions. 

Mr. Pepper will describe the sources of  greenhouse gas emissions and the 
key variables and assumptions expected to influence future emissions 
levels. He will summarize the results of the scenarios and the 
uncertainties surrounding the emissions estimates. 

He will then consider several hypothetical concentration targets and 
describe the reductions in emissions that would be required to meet them. 
The impacts on emissions of changes in energy use or use of alternatives to 
carbon-based fuels will also be addressed. 


                                                             Biographies 

Gregg Marland is a Senior Research Staff Member in the Environmental 
Sciences Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.  For over 20 years he 
has been involved in analyses of global change and the environmental 
impacts of energy systems.  He has studied the sources and some of the 
potential mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas emissions and has helped 
define the methodologies and emissions coefficients now in use for 
estimating CO2 emissions to the atmosphere.  He is currently convener for 
the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA), an activity within the 
International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project.  Among other 
activities, Dr. Marland has served on the National Academy of Sciences 
panel on "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming", the Council on 
Agricultural Science and Technology panel on "Preparing U.S. Agriculture 
for Global Climate Change", the National Technical Advisory Committee of 
the National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC), and has 
been reviewer, contributor, and lead author for various portions of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first and second 
assessment reports.  He is co-editor of a recent volume on Greenhouse Gas 
Emissions and Response Policies in Central and Eastern Europe, co-author of 
the Graz/Oak Ridge Carbon Assessment Model (GORCAM), an integrated forest/ 
forest-products model designed to evaluate the impact of forest management 
alternatives on net flows of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and the U.S. 
team leader on an International Energy Agency, Biomass Agreement, task on 
biomass fuels and greenhouse gas emissions.  Dr. Marland received a BS from 
Virginia Tech, and a Ph.D. in Geology from the University of Minnesota. 

William J. Pepper is a Senior Vice President of ICF Kaiser International, 
Inc. with more than seventeen years of experience in analyzing and 
modeling environmental and energy issues.  Mr. Pepper started at ICF in 
1979 and specialized in modeling U.S. and international oil and gas markets 
for both federal and private clients.  Since 1987, he has specialized in 
modeling future emissions of greenhouse gases.  Mr. Pepper developed the 
Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) for the U.S. EPA.  He developed 
emissions scenarios for the IPCC in 1990 and also assisted the IPCC 
Energy and Industry Subgroup with developing their integrated analysis of 
options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.  Mr. Pepper was a key 
author of the 1992 scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change (IPCC).  Mr. Pepper has a B.S. in Mathematics from the 
University of Maryland and an M.A. in Mathematics fromTemple University. 


                   The Next Seminar is scheduled for Monday, October 21, 1996 

                            Topic - Ecological Indicators of Climate Change 


For more information please contact: 

Anthony D. Socci, Ph.D., U.S. Global Change Research Program Office 
300 D St., SW, Suite 840, Washington, DC 20024 
Telephone: (202) 651-8244; Fax: (202) 554-6715 
E-Mail: TSOCCI at USGCRP.GOV. 

Additional information on the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 
and this Seminar Series is available on the USGCRP Home Page at: 
http://www.usgcrp.gov. Normally these seminars are held on the second 
Monday of each month.