Bleaching and the GBR [slight return]

[Ove Hoegh-Guldberg]

Agreed - only I would differ with the sentiment of this being a case of a
need for a "reality check".   The distinction between the two is critical if
we are to understand the changes (if real or not).  Studies that examine
what is happening today on reefs and those that try to project forward (with
input from the appropriate specialists - climatologists etc.) are two
different but equally important parts of the same problem.  Not
surprisingly, it is media not the scientists that require the reality
checks.

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland


-----Original Message-----
From:	owner-coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
[mailto:owner-coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov] On Behalf Of Rick Grigg
Sent:	Tuesday, February 15, 2000 11:43 PM
To:	Hugh Sweatman; coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
Subject:	Re: Bleaching and the GBR [slight return]

Dear Hugh,

	Congratulations on a nice study and the straight talk regarding
the effects of bleaching, recovery, and the GBR in general.  While the
distinction between what IS and what MIGHT BE is important, so are reality
checks such as yours.
						Rick Grigg, Univ. of Hawaii

At 04:34 PM 2/14/00 +1000, Hugh Sweatman wrote:
>Harking back to the correspondence about a month ago concerning the
>Reuter's/PlanetArk posting on coral bleaching and the Great Barrier Reef,
>the first results of the AIMS Long Term Monitoring Program's assessment of
>the broadscale effects of the 1998 bleaching can now be seen at:
>
>http://www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/Broadscale-bleaching/
b
>eb-01.html
>
>(or look up bleaching in the Topics Index)
>
>The AIMS program surveys 47 reefs once a year at about the same time each
>year.  For a valid comparison estimates of hard coral cover from 1997
>surveys [well before bleaching] were compared with those from 1999 surveys
>[well after bleaching].  The figure shows total living coral cover for the
>survey sites on reefs, arranged by latitude and position across the GBR
>lagoon [inshore to offshore].  Study areas on most survey reefs showed an
>increase in hard coral cover over the period.  These estimates are from
>video transects (methods are described elsewhere on the AIMS webpage); the
>important point in this context is that the study sites are generally at
>6-9 m depth [not on reef crests].
>
>Reefs that showed a net loss of hard coral are mid-shelf reefs in the
>Cooktown/ Lizard Is sector, inner reefs in the Cairns and Townsville
>sectors and some reefs in the Swains sector.  The Cooktown / Lizard Is
>reefs and the Swains reefs are known to have populations of the
>crown-of-thorns starfish which eats corals.  The implication is that, of
>the reefs that are surveyed, only inner reefs in the Cairns and Townsville
>sectors were badly affected by the bleaching.
>
>While the program's coverage of nearshore reefs is not very extensive and
>inshore reefs in other sectors may have been affected, the important point
>is that less shallow areas of much of the GBR were NOT devastated.
>
>Total cover of live coral is a very simple measure: corals clearly differ
>in their susceptibility to bleaching, so the composition of assemblages may
>have changed even though the total cover has not decreased.  Graphical
>checks do not show gross patterns with the taxonomic resolution that is
>possible with U/W video, but we have not applied heavy-duty statistical
>procedures yet.
>
>Finally, to reiterate the point made by Terry Done in this forum, this is a
>measure of what HAS happened on the GBR; Ove Hoegh-Gulberg's recent paper
>concerns what MIGHT happen - the Australian media often fail to make that
>distinction.  However, most predictions are dire and constant vigilance is
>required to follow developments - the AIMS program is part of that.
>
>
>Hugh Sweatman
>Long Term Monitoring Program,
>Australian Institute of Marine Science,
>PMB3 Townsville MC, Qld 4810
>Australia
>ph: (07) 4753 4470 / +61 7 4753 4470 [GMT +10]
>faxes: (07) 4753 4288 / 4772 5852
>h.sweatman at aims.gov.au   web: http//www.aims.gov.au/
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
sponsors coral-list and the Coral Health and Monitoring Program
(CHAMP, http://www.coral.noaa.gov).  Please visit the Web site
for instructions on subscribing and unsubscribing to coral-list.
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