[Coral-List] Coral spawning Culebra Island, Puerto Rico , and Florida Keys and Bank USA

bik at nioz.nl bik at nioz.nl
Fri Aug 20 10:47:41 EDT 2004

Dear all, especially Alina Szmant and Mark Vermeij, Hernandez Edwin .

I read your email on the coral spawning in the Florida Keys and Culebra
Congratulations by monitoring this events.
As I told you before, I may have a scientific manner to predict the coming
spawning over the next years, different from your way of predicting
spawning times.
Because I didn't receive spawning data from you after my request for it, I
made some predictions out of the NOAA coral spawning list of last year.
There were spawnings at Parguera, 16 august 2003, Florida Keys, 17-18
August 2003  Bank USA 18- 19 August 2003.
I'm not sure if my predictions are correct, but my investigation tells me
that the coming spawning in Florida Keys will not start on 4-5 September
2004  but there will be a large spawning on 1st of September 2004  starting
all day and culminating at 10.28 PM and then continuing during the day of
the second September  2004 culminating in the evening, especially at 10:39
PM.This day will give the largest spawning. The third of September there
will be also a good spawning starting at 1:13 AM and will continuing the
whole day and will be culminate at  8.59 PM and 10.39 PM  as predicted
My predictions were made out of the little 2003 data, but the spawning
event from 4 and 5 of august 2004 sustain these predictions!
Maybe it is interesting for you to start your monitoring a few days
earlier, starting on the evening of the first of September 2004., may be
the evening of the 31 th of August is also better!  I hope my predictions
are correct.

The predictions for Culebra Island , Puerto Rico are also for 31 August
5.46 PM ; 2 September 1.11 AM and 8.13 AM
 BUT because you had also spawnings this year at 11 august 2004 and 13
august 2004 , there is a very great chance for you to have spawnings at 7
September starting at 9.02 AM and on 10.51 PM and on 9 September 2004 at
9.34 PM and 10.20 PM !!!and also 10 September 3.53 AM !!
Be aware of it!!

I also expect a smaller spawning event  for the Florida Key Reefs on the 27
of September starting 1.35 PM ; 28 of September 02.58 AM; and the largest
amount  at 29 September  3.10 PM;  5.36 PM;   11.00 PM  of September 2004
till September 30th until 7.48 am. As I told you,I'm not sure, but I use
more parameters as you and they come all together at these days.
For the Culebra Island it will be 28 of September at 2.58 AM  and 29 of
September on 10.34 AM and 5.35 PM . But this are little spawnings . But you
can have a look.

I hope I have been helpful to you with my data and please let me know how
things worked out.
If you sent me your data of 2003 on which you predicted your spawning times
for the 4-5 September 2004  , I can explain you how I made my predictions
and we can look at our differences!
With kind regards

Drs. Margot Bik

Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ)
Dept. Marine Biogeochemistry & Toxicology
P.O. Box 59
1790 AB Den Burg
the Netherlands
Email: bik at nioz.nl
Tel: (+31)(0)222 369 432
Fax: (+31)(0)222 319 674

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