Fw: [Coral-List] Basic Question. Simple Answer ?

[Todd Barber]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: Todd Barber
To: Fishy
Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
Sent: Thursday, July 22, 2004 9:32 AM
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Basic Question. Simple Answer ?


Hi Chris,

Here are some other points to consider in answering that question, "Why are
marine biologists so worried by a forecast global warming  rise of 1.4-5.8
degrees occurring over the next century, when the  coral obviously survived
a far more rapid and greater increase (~7 deg over 10 years) about 15000
years ago (Younger Dryas) ?"

1) Temperature changes would involve a re-distribution of coral reefs.
Coral Reefs are major assets for everything from tourism to fisheries to
cultures.
Re-distributing reefs would involve a loss of reefs in some areas causing
economic problems and any gains in other areas would be so slow from a human
perspective to provide new assets at least for the next several generations.

2) When any biological systems are subjected to "shocks" or rapid changes in
the environment, they nearly always survive but what occurs is a loss in
biodiversity (species extinctions).  Now, in the very long run,  may not be
a bad thing (then again it might depending upon your point of view) but in a
world that is increasingly dependent on biodiversity to provide continued
solutions to our rapidly changing needs (many of them not foreseeable to us,
but that does not mean we don't need them) it is scary to ponder how mass
extinctions could limit our future options as a species.

3) There are numerous other factors putting additional stresses on coral
reefs today that were not present 15,000 years ago...pollution, coastal
re-engineering, changes in CO2 concentrations, etc, etc.   The more stress
factors that add up...the more magnification one is likely to see in the
effects of rapid environmental changes.

4) Coral Reefs serve as nurseries to our world's fish stocks....something
that Man has come to depend upon and harvest that was not occurring at any
significant level 15,000 years ago.  With world fisheries already on the
verge of collapse (and in fact, with many fisheries already collapsed),
massive changes in coral reefs is not welcomed at this time.

5) In that regard, Coral Reefs serve also a great variety of other roles in
the ocean....perhaps roles we don't even know in supporting a huge variety
of marine (and perhaps even land based) life forms.  Rapid change on any
scale is difficult to adapt to even if it is possible.  The earth used to
have oxygen levels below that which would support human life....but life
still existed on the planet...does that mean we should not worry if
something we are doing was going to drive oxygen levels back to 8%?

Thanks,


Todd Barber
Chairman Reef Ball Foundation, Inc.
6916 22nd Street West
Bradenton, FL 34207
reefball at reefball.com
http://www.artificialreefs.org




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Fishy" <fishy.1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Sent: Wednesday, July 21, 2004 7:38 PM
Subject: [Coral-List] Basic Question. Simple Answer ?


> Greetings all,
> My sincerest apologies for wasting time and bandwidth with what Im sure
> is an eye-rolling question for you all.
> I have tried to answer this question myself but have found
> insufficient research
> to back up my response.
> Can anyone help me ?
>
> "Why are marine biologists so worried by a forecast global warming
> rise of 1.4-5.8 degrees occurring over the next century, when the
> coral obviously survived a far more rapid and greater increase (~7
> deg over 10 years) about 15000 years ago (Younger Dryas) ?"
>
> My response is this:
>
> 1. Greenland never had hard corals and the temperature change was
> probably local not global.
> 2. Just because some corals survive, doesnt mean losing massive
> diversity was a minor effect.
> 3. Tropical coral reefs have been stable for a long time now - sudden
> change will be disasterous.
>
> But thats the best I can offer.
>
> Hope someone out there has some patience.
> Sorry again.
>
> Chris.
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