[Coral-List] Link between ENSO and Caribbean SST
j.mcwilliams at uea.ac.uk
Thu May 26 08:05:25 EDT 2005
I'm interested in the link between ENSO and its impacts on sea surfaces
temperatures in the Caribbean (and subsequent impacts on coral bleaching).
To investigate this I'm trying to correlate ENSO indices (e.g. Southern
Oscillation Index or Multivariate ENSO index) with SST anomalies in the
Caribbean, using time lags (at monthly intervals) of up to three years.
However, I know relatively little about the underlying mechanisms that link
these two variables. Can anyone shed some light on how a strong El Nino
(e.g. in 1998) can result in high SST in the Caribbean? For example, does
it involve changes in tradewinds or oceanic circulation?
In addition, does anyone know if there is an appropriate time lag? If, for
example, I get a significant correlation using a lag of 12 months, I need
to know if this result is sensible or just a coincidence with no meaning in
the real world.
Any thoughts would be much appreciated.
Dr John McWilliams
School of Biological Sciences
University of East Anglia
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