[Coral-List] NOAA Pacific Hurricane Outlook

[Mark Eakin]

I have had the question raised about the Pacific Hurricane Outlook.   
NOAA issued this today as well.  It is a good news story for the  
North Pacific:

"NOAA scientists are forecasting an 80% probability of a below normal  
tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season during 2006, a 15%  
probability of a near-normal season, and only a 5% probability of an  
above-normal season. This hurricane outlook is made jointly by the  
scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s  
(NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center  
(NHC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). See  
Background Information for NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and  
below-normal seasons.

"NOAA’s 2006 outlook for the tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane  
season calls for 12-16 tropical storms (average is 15-16), with 6-8  
becoming hurricanes (average is 9), and 1-3 becoming major hurricanes  
(average is 4-5). This outlook reflects the ongoing multi-decadal  
climate signal that has been acting to suppress East Pacific  
hurricane activity since 1995, combined with the expectation of ENSO  
neutral conditions during much of the season."

Full details can be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ 
Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html

I had only dealt with the Atlantic outlook because of the connections  
to bleaching.

Cheers,

Mark


------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
------------------------
C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

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