[Coral-List] The truth will set us all free! (Dr. James M Cervino)
sddonner at Princeton.EDU
Tue Nov 7 09:34:11 EST 2006
Of course, if we want to avoid harmfully frequent mass bleaching events at
many coral reefs worldwide (due to a ~2+ C increase in SSTs) in the future,
we have to reduce greenhouse gases. My 2005 paper in Global Change Biology
examining required rates of adaptation and frequency of mass bleaching in
future climate scenarios concludes exactly that: "The margin for error on
emissions reductions is very small" is the last sentence.
With a time lag between the decision to act and the actual emissions
reductions, and a time lag between the reductions and the climate impact, we
have already "committed" to some warming, and hence increased likelihood of
thermal stress events that can lead to bleaching. That is why we need the
best possible management.
Large emissions reductions are the only way to mitigate the long-term threat
-- but we still have to deal with the here and now.
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