[Coral-List] From Dr Goreau at Copenhagen
jim.hendee at noaa.gov
Tue Dec 22 06:51:37 EST 2009
Greetings...I originally rejected the post below because the Subject
line was not descriptive as to content, and because Dr. Goreau was not
the author of the post. I got responses from both colleagues, which I
gather were complaints since the Subject heading was "Bah Humbug" (my
apologies if I'm wrong). Thus, because it's Christmas and I don't want
to be Scrooge (maybe I'm too late), I'm reversing that decision,
herewith, including the original Subject heading. Dr. Goreau, as usual,
has some exceptional points.
Aside to the attached message content: Whether or not Dr. Goreau has
"dived longer and in more places than any coral scientist" is an
interesting question which would be illuminating to determine. Whoever
the King or Queen of Coral Diving is, that person should get an award at
the 12th ICRS. I know people in NOAA, FWS and Australia who would
likely be good contenders. Anybody keeping hours and dive sites for the
archives? The name for the award should be an interesting one! Maybe
the Go Soak Your Head award?
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "James Cervino PhD." <jcervino at whoi.edu <mailto:jcervino at whoi..edu>>
To: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov <mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa..gov>
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 2009 15:57:55 -0500
Subject: From Dr Goreau at Copenhagen
Dear Listers, I thought some of you may find this holds truth!
December 18 2009
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Conference of Parties 15
COP-15 CONDEMNS CORAL REEFS, LOW ISLANDS, AND LOW COASTS TO EXTINCTION
Any agreement that might be reached in Copenhagen today will condemn coral
reefs, low lying island nations, and all low lying coastlines to extinction,
because none of the targets being discussed here are adequate to protect
All targets proposed are based on models that intrinsically miss more
of the long term climate response to CO2 that are shown in the real climate
data. The sensitivity of global sea level and temperature to CO2 shown
climate record are many times greater than IPCC models suggest. IPCC
projections only show the first small initial fraction of the long-term
climatic response. The heat is now building up in the deep sea, and only
the deep ocean and ice caps warm up will we feel the full effect of warming.
This takes thousands of years.
Coral reefs can take no further warming. We have already lost most of the
corals in the world to heat stroke, and it is only a question of when
record hot year will happen for us to lose most of what is left.
speaking, that will happen in 2010. Therefore proposed targets to let
temperature rise by 1.5 or 2 degrees are a death sentence for coral
the marine biodiversity, fisheries, sand supplies, tourism, and shore
protection of over 100 countries.
Low lying islands and low lying coastal areas, where billions of people
can’t take further sea level rise. The long-term equilibrium sea level for
TODAY’S atmospheric CO2 concentration is 23 metres (75 feet) above today’s
level. The equilibrium sea level for only 280 ppm of CO2 is 7 metres (23
above today’s level. That is the level shown by the flashing red lights
light poles outside the Bella Center, or around the height of the ceiling of
the first floor. At that time Copenhagen was submerged, and crocodiles and
hippopotamuses roamed the tropical swamps of London, England. The safe
CO2 to avert this inevitable ultimate consequence is about 260 ppm.
proposed targets of 350 or 450 ppm amount to a suicide pact for low lying
island nations, and billions of people who live near low lying coasts..
Not only are the world’s policy makers failing to grasp the magnitude
crisis future generations face, and irresponsibly failing to act in
are also ignoring known solutions. These are proven and available now,
are just not using them because policy makers and funding agencies are not
using new technologies to adapt to climate change and to reverse CO2
and global warming. The United Nations Commission of Sustainable Development
Small Island Developing States Partnership In New Sustainable
issued a 40 chapter multimedia DVD at COP-15 showing cost-effective
that could be rapidly implemented to prevent the looming disaster, if there
were policies and funding to promote effective action. Many of these new
technologies have already been implemented in SIDS on pilot scales, so
not a technology transfer issue but one of endogenous capacity development.
The world’s leaders have known for more than two years exactly when
exam was scheduled, but they refused to study for it. Now that they have
the exam, they are basically claiming the dog ate the assignment. Our
people need much higher seriousness, less talk, and immediate action.
For more information contact Dr. Thomas Goreau at goreau at bestweb.net
<mailto:goreau at bestweb.net>
Dr. Goreau is President of the Global Coral Reef Alliance and founder and
Coordinator of the UNCSD SIDS Partnership In New Sustainable
was previously Senior Scientific Affairs Officer for global climate
Biodiversity at the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for
Development. Educated in Jamaican schools, he holds degrees in atmospheric
physics, astronomy, chemistry, and microbiology from MIT, Caltech, and
He developed the HotSpot method to accurately predict the location,
intensity of coral bleaching from satellite data, and made the first
measurements of the effects of Amazon deforestation on greenhouse gas
emissions. He has dived longer and in more places than any coral scientist.
Dr. James M. Cervino
Pace University &
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst.
NYC Address: 9-22 119st
College Point NY NY 11356
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