[Coral-List] La Nina and global warming
Eugene Shinn
eshinn at marine.usf.edu
Thu Nov 11 12:49:48 EST 2010
The coral-list had been getting fairly dull with all those
advertisements for environmental management jobs. I thought it was
time for some excitement and nothing seems to stir the neurons like a
little climate change poking.
Its good to see that people still have trust in their government
agencies and believe their published temperature numbers even if some
may be tainted by "urban heat islands" or "climate gates." Of course
we can rest assured the numbers have been adjusted for all that. By
now list readers should know it is difficult to get geologists overly
wound up over climate change. They know it's been changing back and
forth since the beginning of time. The story is written in stone and
deep sea mud. The same is also true for sea level, which at times has
been higher than the statue of liberty and not long ago about 400 ft
below present. Before that it fluctuated up and down about 4 times
after being 6 to 8 meters above present level. That higher level was
during what we call the Pleistocene, or "ice ages." The sea had to be
that high so that the coral reef that is now the Florida Keys could
grow.
Seriously, we all know sea level has been rising for the past
18,000 years and according to tide gauge data sea level at Key West
came up roughly one foot in the past 100 years! Is there any
scientific reason why it should stop short of its last high stand? In
1991 Lidz and Shinn published a peer reviewed paper on sea level
change in the Florida Keys. (Lidz, B.H., and Shinn, E.A., 1991,
Paleoshorelines, Reefs, at a Rising Sea (South Florida), Journal of
Coastal Research v. 7, no. 1, p. 203-229.) In that publication we
documented the Holocene rise in sea level and demonstrated that with
a continued rise of only 1 meter 75% of the Florida Keys would be
under water. No one paid any attention. But that was before sea level
rise hysteria reached its present level. Back then in pre IPCC times
we were just doing basic geological science without the influence of
politics.
As for the Scientific American magazine poll, I have not read one
in a long time but I think we can rest assured it is not on the Tea
Party reading list. As for Steve's tirade against polls I certainly
agree they are almost always skewed one way or the other. I never saw
one that was not self-serving or asking the significant questions.
They remind me of: "When did you stop beating your dog? A) Monday, B)
Tuesday or C) never." Nevertheless, readers of that magazine are not
dummies.
The interesting and revealing question related to science and
politics was questioned by Ed Blume who wrote, "The most troubling
response in the survey: 67% of the respondents want to keep science
out of the political process. I take that to mean that two-thirds of
the respondents want our governments to make decisions without
consideration of scientific inquiry and conclusions." I could ask,
how many in congress do you think are capable of understanding
science? My observation has been that they mainly like scientific
results when they support what they already intend to do. Thus,
science can get skewed when they dump money on projects that will
support what they want. Climate change may be a good example because
a lot of rich people will get richer on that issue. Want to buy some
carbon credits?
Many of us older types come from a long-standing culture that
says science should be pure and not influenced by politicians,
kind-of-like separation of religion and government. The agency where
I spent 31 years had existed for well over a century because it stuck
to the science and was seldom accused of bias. That agency produced
hard data that could be used by people on both sides of the political
aisle. I found that out when I spent 10-years installing monitoring
wells and chasing underground sewage in the Florida Keys. On the
other hand, some youthful agencies bend with the political climate or
even help shape it. That's a sure way to get congressional funding
and enlarge an agency when the climate is right but it can shoot you
in the foot when the political winds change. Back when we published
the paleoshorelines study it was basic science and people can still
use that data as they choose.
The winds have changed recently, and we can only hope our
science will weather the new and evolving political climate. Gene
--
No Rocks, No Water, No Ecosystem (EAS)
------------------------------------ -----------------------------------
E. A. Shinn, Courtesy Professor
University of South Florida
Marine Science Center (room 204)
140 Seventh Avenue South
St. Petersburg, FL 33701
<eshinn at marine.usf.edu>
Tel 727 553-1158----------------------------------
-----------------------------------
More information about the Coral-List
mailing list