[Coral-List] NOAA Coral Reef Watch Releases New Seasonal Coral Bleaching Forecast System
jacqueline.shapo@noaa.govGMAIL
jacqueline.shapo at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 9 12:22:19 EDT 2012
Apologies for any cross-postings.
Good Afternoon, Everyone!
NOAA Coral Reef Watch
(http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.html) has just released
on its website a new experimental seasonal bleaching forecast system
that predicts the probability of thermal stress events capable of
causing large-scale, mass coral bleaching. The new Seasonal Coral
Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook
(http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.html)
uses a weekly, 28-member ensemble of sea surface temperature (SST)
forecasts from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction's
(NCEP) operational, dynamical Climate Forecast System Version 1
(http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/) to predict the probability of coral
bleaching up to four months in the future (typical bleaching season).
NOAA Coral Reef Watch's first Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress
Outlook product
(http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook/index.html),
released to the public in July 2008, was built from SST forecasts from
an experimental, statistical Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) system,
developed in conjunction with the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
(ESRL). While the LIM-based Outlook will continue to serve the coral
reef communities, it will do so now alongside the more advanced
CFS-based Outlook.
The new CFS-based Outlook product significantly enhances NOAA Coral Reef
Watch's capability for predicting the likelihood of coral bleaching up
to four months in the future. Currently, Coral Reef Watch provides the
CFS-based Seasonal Outlooks at probabilities of 90% and 60%, thereby
identifying the lowest thermal stress levels that 90% and 60% of the 28
members predict, respectively. Coral Reef Watch also provides
percentages of the 28 ensemble members reaching each of the four coral
bleaching thermal stress levels (Bleaching Watch & Higher, Bleaching
Warning & Higher, Alert Level 1 & Higher, and Alert Level 2). The
corresponding weekly outlooks that the Seasonal Outlook is derived from
are also provided to give potential thermal stress conditions on a
weekly time scale. Work is underway to transition the new CFS-based
Seasonal Bleaching Outlook product to utilize the newly available
Version 2 of the CFS (CFSv2). That transition is expected to be complete
at the end of 2012.
This effort is made possible through collaboration between NOAA/NCEP and
NOAA Coral Reef Watch, supported by funding from NCEP and the NOAA Coral
Reef Conservation Program (http://coralreef.noaa.gov/). This new product
will be announced during the 12th International Coral Reef Symposium in
Cairns, Australia, 9-13 July 2012.For more information, please visit:
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.html.
Your feedback is important for us to improve our products. Please send
your comments and suggestions to coralreefwatch at noaa.gov
<mailto:coralreefwatch at noaa.gov?subject=[Question/feedback%20for%20CFS-based%20Bleaching%20Outlook%5d>.
CFS-Based Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook:
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.html
NOAA Coral Reef Watch: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.html
Thank you very much!
Warm Regards,
Jacquie Rauenzahn
--
*********************************
Jacqueline Rauenzahn
Coral Reef Watch Operations Manager
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/CRW
E/RA31, SSMC1, 5th Floor, Room 5306
1335 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
PLEASE NOTE NEW PHONE NUMBER: 301-713-7194
Fax: 301-713-3136
Email: Jacqueline.Shapo at noaa.gov
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