[Coral-List] New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg oveh at uq.edu.au
Sat Jul 21 01:41:40 EDT 2012


Dear Alina,

I totally understand where you're coming from. My message, however, is that there are growing signs that (a) it is not too late for effective action to prevent us rising much above 450 ppm, and (b) change in such complex system is non-linear and is likely to happen extremely quickly.   The future is not going to be determined by the dirt cheap price of gas and coal today. You only had to look at how different parts of the energy landscape are changing to appreciate the fact that we could see a rapid shift to renewable energy sources over those depending on fossil fuels. And ultimately, seemingly immovable ideological positions will fall away ... if only because it will become increasingly uneconomic not to shift towards renewable energy sources. In this regard, individuals and organisations that are pumping money into gas and coal infrastructure today are probably doing so at great risk to their capital.

I believe we (as a scientific community) can speed up this transition by staying the course, and doggedly and faithfully relating to all and sundry what the science tells us.  In this regard, coral reefs and climate change provide a particularly clear parable about the monumentally serious risk that climate change represents for natural ecosystems and human dependents across the planet. I believe, however, we have much more to do in terms of how we communicate this story - not only should we continue to expand our interaction with the mainstream media but we must also focus on capturing hearts and minds of hundreds of millions through effective social media campaigns and other mechanisms. Only then will we have the chance to speed up the transition that desperately needs to happen.

So, I am relieved that you are not lying down and dying over this issue - as you know, I am not and don't think we are quite at that point yet.
Best wishes,

Ove

From: Szmant, Alina [mailto:szmanta at uncw.edu]
Sent: Tuesday, 17 July 2012 11:05 AM
To: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Roger Bradbury; Coral List (coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)
Cc: john.bythell at usp.ac.fj; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com; spieler at nova.edu; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson; Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith; Beth.Fulton at csiro.au; Randy Olson (rolson at usc.edu); Mark Milstein; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com
Subject: RE: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Hi Ove:

I am not laying down and dying, on this issue, and I put my money where my mouth is:  we installed solar panels on our home that produce 50 % of what we use, and we reduced our monthly electricity consumption by 50 % by  replacing older ACs, appliances, all LED bulbs, etc (major bank loans to handle this investment).  We drive Pruis' and I've also become a vegetarian to reduce my contribution to climate change related to animal husbandry. I teach seminar courses about human impacts on the environment, hoping to inspire our college age voters to make good choices with their wallets and lives, and give frequent lectures to our educated seniors as well.  I am 66 and have no grandchildren.   Other than slitting my throat, there is only so much more I can do to reduce my contribution to the problem.

But I am not encouraged that any of this will do any good because the number of people who like me are spending money to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint are likely less than 1 % of 300 M people in the USA.  Your cited  reports aside, most of which are meaningless arm-waving because no real action comes out of them, there is not much happening in this country to really grapple with the climate change problem.  I keep hoping some major disaster will convince people to act (like in the movies), but none of the disasters are large enough to affect more than a few thousand people at a time, not enough to sway voters.  Our upcoming November election will be very telling as to what direction the US will take on major environmental issues.  If we get more of the 2010 type of results, we will be in for another 4 years of grid-lock and no action.

I wish I could be more optimistic, and very much hope I am wrong.  Time will tell, all too soon.  But just spouting optimistic platitudes will not get us anywhere.  The truth is that the human species seldom responds to a problem until after a disaster happens, seldomly as a preventative.

Regards,

Alina

*************************************************************************
Dr. Alina M. Szmant
Professor of Marine Biology
Center for Marine Science and Dept of Biology and Marine Biology
University of North Carolina Wilmington
5600 Marvin Moss Ln
Wilmington NC 28409 USA
tel:  910-962-2362  fax: 910-962-2410  cell: 910-200-3913
http://people.uncw.edu/szmanta
*******************************************************

From: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg [mailto:oveh at uq.edu.au]
Sent: Monday, July 16, 2012 4:50 PM
To: Szmant, Alina; Roger Bradbury
Cc: john.bythell at usp.ac.fj; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com; spieler at nova.edu; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson; Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith; Beth.Fulton at csiro.au; Randy Olson (rolson at usc.edu); Mark Milstein; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com
Subject: RE: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Thank you Alina.  Two very quick points.  I am under no illusion about the current crescendo of enthusiasm for fossil fuels. Australia is also going gangbusters but many in the industry and government are beginning to understand the economic peril of not adopting renewables.  The latter is to simply good economic and security sense. Part of the current mad rush forward is about the bravado of fossil fuel industries trying to push a reality that just isn't.  I urge you to read the GCI energy report I mentioned in a previous e-mail to get the gist of what I mean in this respect (note that the advisory group for this study include CEOs of energy companies, grid distributors, energy intensive industries etc). The second point is that to lie down and die on an issue that concerns not only the health of coral reefs that the future of our children and grandchildren, and humanity in general, is a complete copout when solutions do exist. Given that we don't know how the future will unfold when we get to 5 or 10 years out from now, there is no other rational response than that we must redouble our efforts to bring the reality of dying yet redeemable world to all and sundry. Our community is perfectly situated to tell a simple story regarding coral reefs - straightforward and illustrative of the problem and the linkage between a deteriorating climate, natural ecosystems and the survival of people.

Regards,

Ove


From: Szmant, Alina [mailto:szmanta at uncw.edu]<mailto:[mailto:szmanta at uncw.edu]>
Sent: Tuesday, 17 July 2012 6:22 AM
To: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Roger Bradbury
Cc: john.bythell at usp.ac.fj<mailto:john.bythell at usp.ac.fj>; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu<mailto:rgates at hawaii.edu>; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au<mailto:a.heyward at aims.gov.au>; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com<mailto:jrguest at gmail.com>; spieler at nova.edu<mailto:spieler at nova.edu>; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson; Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith; Beth.Fulton at csiro.au<mailto:Beth.Fulton at csiro.au>; Mark Milstein; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com<mailto:plokani at gmail.com>
Subject: RE: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Dear Ove:

If your optimistic comments and opinions about the future of coral reefs (and the global ecosystem in general) are based on a change of heart and opinion in the USA about climate change, you are being falsely mislead by a few non-representative newspaper articles, and conversations with unrealistic people.  The fact of the matter is that efforts to develop all forms of fossil fuel are rampant here in the USA.  The big gas, coal and oil companies and their super-PACS are flooding the airways with adds about these wonderful forms of "clean energy"  and the importance to the future of American jobs and economy.  The environmental movement in the USA is weaker than the US economy and job prospects.  Decades of rampant consumerism and false dreams of everyone having the types of lifestyles of the rich and famous as portrayed on TV, plus inadequate science (or economic) education in the USA, have led to several generations of voters who have no recognition of the problems we are facing in the near future.  In fact, in my current state of NC, the state legislature voted to ignore all recent studies of rates of sea level change, and that these newer studies cannot be used for coastal zone management policies to limit development of low lying coastal areas.  So far we have fought off offshore drilling, but they will start fracking soon (this coming year).  And so it is pretty much everywhere in the country you look.  The Obama administration is doing nothing to educate and warn our populace about climate change.  Neither are his agencies.

I agree with Roger that from where I sit, pitifully, it seems pretty hopeless.  Too little, too slow, too late.

Alina

*************************************************************************
Dr. Alina M. Szmant
Professor of Marine Biology
Center for Marine Science and Dept of Biology and Marine Biology
University of North Carolina Wilmington
5600 Marvin Moss Ln
Wilmington NC 28409 USA
tel:  910-962-2362  fax: 910-962-2410  cell: 910-200-3913
http://people.uncw.edu/szmanta
*******************************************************

From: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg [mailto:oveh at uq.edu.au]<mailto:[mailto:oveh at uq.edu..au]>
Sent: Saturday, July 14, 2012 10:48 PM
To: Roger Bradbury
Cc: john.bythell at usp.ac.fj<mailto:john.bythell at usp.ac.fj>; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu<mailto:rgates at hawaii.edu>; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Szmant, Alina; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au<mailto:a.heyward at aims.gov.au>; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com<mailto:jrguest at gmail.com>; spieler at nova.edu<mailto:spieler at nova.edu>; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson; Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith; Beth.Fulton at csiro.au<mailto:Beth.Fulton at csiro.au>; Mark Milstein; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com<mailto:plokani at gmail.com>
Subject: RE: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Thanks Roger. I would adopt a similarly pessimistic position except for the fact that I believe pressure for swift action on fossil fuels and related issues is building exponentially.  I don't think this has been truly appreciated within our thinking ... many are now being caught off guard by the rapid pace at which the climate change impacts such as extreme events in the earth's weather system are building.

The other issue which is predictably unpredictable is the rate at which technology is changing and the cost of renewables plummeting (50% decrease in PV technology the last year alone). Yes, China may be still building coal-fired power stations but investments in renewables globally have extended to six times those of fossil fuels (2011:  $260 B versus $40 B<http://www.abc..net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/renewables-investment-eclipses-fossil-fuels/4019784>).  A revolution is in progress.  This is generating new thinking at a rapid rate and massive scale. A recent study by the Renewable Energy Group within the Global Change Institute, for example, has demonstrated that Australian energy generation depending on fossil fuels will be uncompetitive next to renewables within a very short time (see the report here<http://gci.uq.edu.au/News/CompetitivePowerReport.aspx>).  This goes for the majority of other countries as well. Given that the hindrance towards adopting policies for a safe climate is not one of technology and economics (as pointed out time and time again by Sir Nicholas Stern and many other expert economists) but rather one of politics and special interest, I believe that accepting a rapid and systematic switch (which won't be comfortable but will be essential) will occur within the next few years.

After all, this is about people at the end of the day and this issue is rapidly taking on the dimensions of a short-term/in-your-face issue that can drive rapid political change.  One only has to look in the heartland of the United States<http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/us-climate-official-says-more-extreme-events-convincing-many-americans-climate-change-is-real/2012/07/06/gJQAHNZ5QW_story.html> truly appreciate how quickly public opinion is and is likely to change.

Cheers,

Ove

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Global Change Institute
University of Queensland


From: Roger Bradbury [mailto:roger.bradbury at mac.com]<mailto:[mailto:roger.bradbury at mac.com]>
Sent: Sunday, 15 July 2012 11:58 AM
To: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Cc: john.bythell at usp.ac.fj<mailto:john.bythell at usp.ac.fj>; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu<mailto:rgates at hawaii.edu>; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Alina SZMANT; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au<mailto:a.heyward at aims.gov.au>; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com<mailto:jrguest at gmail.com>; spieler at nova.edu<mailto:spieler at nova.edu>; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson; Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith; Beth.Fulton at csiro.au<mailto:Beth.Fulton at csiro.au>; Mark Milstein; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com<mailto:plokani at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Thanks, Ove, for the response.

But as you say, it all hinges on 'if ...'

Unfortunately, the realpolitik says that there is a vanishingly small prob of that happening, so small that no reasonable person would bet on it.

Emissions are not only increasing, but they accelerated in the noughties compared to the nineties. The actual data are now above the most pessimistic IPCC projections. China is building coal-fired power stations at a prodigious rate, more than negating any decreases in the Western world, India is just coming on line. The price of gas is dropping and the energy security issue is ensuring that there will be a gas bonanza in the US and EU. China will not make any concessions that affect its GDP growth rate, since the survival of the regime depends on this. India will go ditto as it ramps up competition with China.

And remember, a few years ago we said that we had to turn emissions down by 2012. What happened to that?

And that's only the emissions. Fishing and nitrogen flux follow the same story.

Let's chat in more detail when we meet next week in Brisbane.

Yours in realism

Rog


On 15/07/2012, at 9:49 AM, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg wrote:

Hi Roger,

Thanks for the link.  I must admit that I don't share your 'game already over' conclusion (as you probably already know).  If we were to aggressively shift to zero carbon energy systems by the end of 10-15 years from now and pursue the lowest of low climate scenarios (such as the RCP 2.6 pathway of the IPCC), then coral reefs will have an excellent chance of not only surviving the next century but flourishing and expanding as we get to the latter part of the present century.  In the short term, there is no doubt that coral reefs will decrease to a minimal level.  Strengthening our efforts and renewing our resolve, however, to protect and nourish reefs as we go through this 'coral reef minima' will be absolutely essential to their survival.

I believe we are going to decisively tackle the climate change crisis in this way (for many reasons if not for the growing crisis in extreme weather events around the world and other 'motivators').  There is still time and stabilisation of climate impacts while ramping up efforts to protect reefs from others stressors is key.

Let's face it, there is no other reasonable and rational alternatives.

Cheers,

Ove

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Global Change Institute
University of Queensland

From: Roger Bradbury [mailto:roger.bradbury at mac.com]<mailto:[mailto:roger.bradbury at mac.com]>
Sent: Sunday, 15 July 2012 8:45 AM
To: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; john.bythell at usp.ac.fj<mailto:john.bythell at usp.ac.fj>; William Fitt; rgates at hawaii.edu<mailto:rgates at hawaii.edu>; Roberto Iglesias-Prieto; Michael Lesser; Yossi Loya; Robert van Woesik; Tim McClanahan; Peter Sale; Ernesto, Dr ARIAS; Mark Butler; Robert Cowen; Bret Danilowicz; Geoff Jones; Serge Planes; Barry RUDDICK; Yvonne SADOVY; Robert Steneck; Alina SZMANT; Simon THORROLD; Mary, Dr Coffroth; Ken Lindeman; Drew Harvell; Garriet, Dr SMITH; Farooq AZAM; Eric Jordan; Eugene ROSENBERG; Ernesto Weil; Bette WILLIS; Laurie Raymundo; Roger Bradbury; Craig Johnson; Bohdan Durnota; Porfirio Aliño; Rob SEYMOUR; Peter Campbell; Pascal Perez; Alasdair Edwards; Loke Chou; Richard Dodge; Ed Gomez; a.heyward at aims.gov.au<mailto:a.heyward at aims.gov.au>; Aileen Morse; Buki Rinkevich; Tadashi Kimura; Makoto Omori; jrguest at gmail.com<mailto:jrguest at gmail.com>; spieler at nova.edu<mailto:spieler at nova.edu>; Peter Mumby; Ellsworth LeDrew; CMS ext - Mark Eakin; Alan Strong; CMS ext - William Skirving; Laura David; Stuart Phinn; Nancy Knowlton; Margareth Kyewalyanga; CMS ext AJH at environmentservices; Mark Paterson
Cc: Marea Hatziolos; Kristen Sampson; Paul Dargusch; Jamaluddin Jompa; Shay O'Farrell; Cesar Villanoy; Michael Mascia; Carl Smith;Beth.Fulton at csiro.au<mailto:Beth.Fulton at csiro.au>; Mark Milstein; Mark Paterson; Medrilzam; Sebastian Thomas; annette menez; Maricar Samson; plokani at gmail.com<mailto:plokani at gmail.com>
Subject: New York Times op-ed piece - thoughts for Phase II

Hi everyone

Sadly, I didn't make it to the ICRS. I offered both a paper and a mini-symposium to the meeting, but both were rejected.

I feel that I had some important, new and controversial things to say, but it seems that those fresh ideas were not welcome.

However, they were avidly welcomed by the New York Times, where you'll find an op-ed piece published in Saturday's edition.

See

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/opinion/a-world-without-coral-reefs.html?_r=2&hpw

I think there are some ideas in here that bear on Phase II.

There should, in the least, be a project that looks at Plan B for the Anthropocene. That is, what will we do if our optimistic plans for tropical coastal waters turn to dust.

We should be starting work now, on the biophysical side, on how we can engineer the ecosystems that will replace coral reefs so that they provide useful ecosystem goods and services, and, on the human side of the ledger, on what the necessary structural adjustment will look like.

This is just the beginning of a new do-list for humanity.

I look forward to discussing.

Cheers

Rog



--
Roger Bradbury

Adjunct Professor
College of Asia and the Pacific
Australian National University
Canberra ACT Australia 0200

Phone   +61 2 6295 2839 (home office)
Mobile  +61 419 221 003
Email   roger at tjurunga.com<mailto:roger at tjurunga.com> or roger.bradbury at anu..edu.au<mailto:roger.bradbury at anu.edu.au>
Web    http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au/staff/rmap/rbradbury.php







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