[Coral-List] political arguments on coral-list
Karsten Shein
karsten.shein at noaa.gov
Thu May 22 11:25:55 EDT 2014
All indications are pointing to a significant El Nino developing this
year. If this is anything like previous moderate to strong events, the
reefs in many parts of the world are in for some widespread and
potentially fatal bleaching. Yet, because we are being distracted by
these sort of politically-charged discussions over what might happen to
SST 50 years from now or where to place blame, I feel we have put very
little of our communication and research into the question of whether we
can do anything other than sit back and watch the proverbial train
wreck? We saw and documented the wrecks in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2005 and
again in 2010. We developed wonderful tools that allow us to monitor the
train approaching, and capture the wreck from multiple angles for later
playback - we've even built metaphorical viewing platforms so everyone
can get a better view of the carnage as the derailed train plows into
the unsuspecting town. We also have a pretty good idea of why the train
wrecks on this particular section of track. These are all great
advances, but where are the urgent calls for the mitigative or adaptive
solutions to either keep the train from jumping the track in the first
place or else at least keep the train from destroying the adjacent town?
We went from drawing board to men on the moon in less than 10 years, and
from discovery of the CFC-Ozone connection to the Montreal Protocol in
14. We've had at least 30 years (since Peter Glynn's 1984 article
connecting El Nino to bleaching) to work on these problems - heck, even
Gene way back in 1966 documented the connection between coral growth and
water temperatures. The problems coral faces from El Nino and long-term
climate change are similar. We have a documented connection between
anomalously warm water and coral mortality. Regardless of future
climates, we will probably still experience El Ninos - some strong. But
the bleaching appears to be getting more severe with each one, likely
because the El Ninos are coming atop waters that are on average warmer
than existed back with the El Ninos of 1957,65, or 72.
If we are truly interested in the long-term survival of reefs, we need
to focus on solutions to helping corals survive these warm water
temperatures (and, importantly, communicating that need). Then, if the
climate models are proven correct, we already have the "El Nino"
solution ready to help combat the threat of future warmer waters. But,
if we continue to be distracted by political noise, all long-term
climate assessments will probably be moot wrt corals because inevitable
strong El Ninos in the coming decades sitting atop the already warm SSTs
will ensure there are few if any shallow tropical corals left to be
affected by 2050 or 2100.
Just my personal observations and opinions,
Karsten
Unless explicitly attributed, any opinions expressed in this message are
mine.
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