[Coral-List] More Conformational bias?
Ruben van Hooidonk
ruben.van.hooidonk at noaa.gov
Tue Jun 16 12:15:31 EDT 2015
I call them climate change deniers, not skeptics.
First, the article you refer to makes a comparison between the trend in contiguous US temperatures and the global average trend in temperatures.
From the site you mention: "Data from America’s most advanced climate monitoring system shows the U.S. has undergone a cooling trend over the last decade, despite recent claims by government scientists that warming has accelerated worldwide during that time.”
Local phenomena can show different patterns than world wide averages. No surprise there. So what is the point of the article? The skeptics say there was a pause in US temperatures in an arbitrarily chosen time frame. That is cherry picking.
Second, any 10 year period is too short to make any conclusions about trends. For some excellent information on trends and the hiatus:
Using the 1990-2015 period the trend is 0.13ºF per decade based on NOAA data, available here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ <http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/>
I’ve uploaded a plot of average temperatures over the US from 1990-2015 here:
> On Jun 16, 2015, at 10:01 AM, Eugene Shinn <eugeneshinn at mail.usf.edu> wrote:
> NOAA says there was no 18 year pause in global warming. Skeptics say
> there was.
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