[Coral-List] Evidence that ocean warming has caused most Caribbean coral loss

[Bill Allison]

Popper's "The poverty of historicism" might be a salutary read informing
this conversation.

On Thu, Apr 27, 2017 at 9:14 AM, Pedro M Alcolado <gmalcolado at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I support  Steve. We have to try to avoid to dilute srong existing
> evidence of impact of climate change, with  fragmentary arguments
> that indeed conduct to anything and provide support to those that
> claim that there is not enough evidence of climate impact on coral
> reefs, just when urgent strong actions have to be promoted with strong
> vested political and economic interest with no evidence. We have to
> hold a precautionary approach and to unite on our solid arguments,
> instead of mentioning particularities or exceptional cases. Sorry for
> my imperfect English.
> Best,
> Pedro
>
> On 4/26/17, Steve Mussman <sealab at earthlink.net> wrote:
> > Dear John and Mike,
> >
> > I ask this respectfully,  don't you both (as well as the vast majority of
> > your colleagues) ultimately arrive at the same conclusion?
> > Correct me if I'm wrong, but regardless of how we got here, don't you
> agree
> > that it is ocean warming that now represents the consummate threat?   I
> may
> > be interpreting things incorrectly, but It seems to me that at this
> point we
> > need a unified message reflecting the urgency of addressing this
> particular
> > issue.
> >
> > At the same time we can all remain supportive of the various efforts
> aimed
> > at addressing local stressors.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Steve
> >
> > Sent from my iPhone
> >
> >> On Apr 25, 2017, at 8:50 AM, Bruno, John <jbruno at unc.edu> wrote:
> >>
> >> Dear Mike, thank you for your ongoing interest in this topic and my
> post..
> >>
> >> "the Caribbean had already lost more than half its reefs before water
> >> temperatures had increased by more than a fraction of a degree”
> >>
> >> This is a common misconception from folks unaware that global warming
> >> began many decades ago. Please have a look at the NOAA data plotted in
> >> this figure from my post:
> >> http://theseamonster.net/2017/04/caribbean-bleaching/nclimate2915-f4/
> Or
> >> the graphics in Kuffner et al 2014 below it. These data should sort you
> >> out. The Caribbean had clearly warmed significantly by the time mean
> coral
> >> cover had been roughly halved (around the mid-1980s). Also, we haven’t
> >> lost any reefs yet, what we’ve lost is coral cover (and fish biomass).
> >>
> >> Iv’e dove near Havana and I agree - its a mess and was probably locally
> >> impacted. And I don’t understand the logic in arguing managers should
> give
> >> up because climate change has had significant impacts on corals.. I’ve
> >> said it a million times: local impacts need to be mitigated. We all
> agree
> >> on that. I think you’re underestimating managers and local conservation
> >> capacity. (All the managers I know acknowledge climate change but aren’t
> >> giving up). As the Ocean Optimism symposium highlighted over the
> weekend,
> >> local successes are realistic and very much meaningful and worthwhile.
> >>
> >> "and there is overwhelming evidence of land-based stress going back to
> the
> >> 70’s”
> >>
> >> You have been promising this list-serv these references for years now.
> If
> >> you ever find them, please do share with us if you have the time.
> >>
> >> "how well could coral reefs survive ocean warming if they were not
> already
> >> stressed by [local] human impacts?”
> >>
> >> That experiment has been run dozens of times. On the northern GBR, on
> >> Scott Reef, off Southern Cuba or in the Bahamas, across the central
> >> Pacific, etc.. The answer is not well at all.
> >>
> >> The reason is that local impacts do not appear to act synergistically
> with
> >> ocean warming. As Cote and Darling suggested
> >> (http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.
> 1371/journal.pbio.1000438),
> >> the interaction appears to be antagonistic, not synergistic. Either that
> >> or the impact of warming is so much stronger that it swamps the local
> and
> >> synergistic signals. Also see Darling et al 2010: htt
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"... the earth is, always has been, and always will be more beautiful than
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