[Coral-List] Evidence that ocean warming has caused most Caribbean coral loss

Wed May 3 14:55:43 EDT 2017

Hi Elizabeth:

One could argue whether this is (indirectly) "us" or one of the myriad
positive feedbacks related to climate change. But, speaking geologically,
as the ice has continued to melt at extraordinary rates, ever more tundra
is being exposed and is starting to melt. The result is enormous releases
of methane. Bad news - this is on the order of 30X as potent as CO2.....
Good news(?) - it converts to CO2 rather quickly.... more bad news, there
is always an increasingly efficient source as more arctic tundra melts and
replaces converted CH4.... even worse news, as the upper ocean warms, we
are seeing melting of methane clathrates which add to the problem. A number
of folks argue that this was the scenario for the PTM which saw greater and
perhaps even faster rates of GHG  addition and warming that we have seen so
far.

None of this helps answer the question going around of what is the
"primary" driver of reef decline. If anyone hasn't read it, I highly
recommend Jeremy Jackson's "Reefs Before Columbus" article in Coral Reefs
awhile back.... it is sobering, as is John Pandolfi's follow-up discussions
of how early anthropogenic impacts might have kicked in.

So, for me, as a reef scientist, it really doesn't make a great deal of
sense to argue over what is worse just so we can feel "our subdiscipline is
the most important". It's all tied in together and, while we take up
bandwidth with this, we could be spending that time trying to understand
the nature of the system better.

As a reef GEO-scientist, when I think back to the "good old days, I'm
thinking early Holocene.

Best,

Dennis

On Tue, May 2, 2017 at 3:44 PM, Elizabeth Sherman <sherman at bennington.edu>
wrote:

> Dear Ulf et al.,
>
> The rate of change of temperature in most of the earth's past is not
> particularly relevant because there were no people living then who would
> suffer as a consequence of global temperature change. That is not the case
> now. Moreover, the only *driver* of the increase in temperature  (the
> increase in total ocean heat content) is us and our CO2 emissions. My
> understanding is that no other driver of the change in the heat content of
> the ocean now has been identified other that us.
>
> Betsy
>
>
> On Tue, May 2, 2017 at 8:18 AM, Ulf Erlingsson <ceo at lindorm.com> wrote:
>
> > Richard,
> >
> > What I am saying is,
> > 1) In the very recent past there were temperature changes more dramatic
> > than what is predicted to happen in the coming century,
> > 2) there were global transgressions more dramatic than what is predicted
> > to happen in the coming century,
> > 3) all now living coral species survived all of this, and they probably
> > have experienced many such events.
> > 4) Of course, many coral REEFS went from being barrier or fringing reefs
> > to becoming submerged reefs, but so what? New species take over.
> >
> > Here is an article for you to start digging:
> https://www.researchgate.net/
> > publication/230135618_A_jokulhlaup_from_a_Laurentian_
> > captured_ice_shelf_to_the_Gulf_of_Mexico_could_have_
> > caused_the_bolling_warming <https://www.researchgate.net/
> > publication/230135618_A_jokulhlaup_from_a_Laurentian_
> > captured_ice_shelf_to_the_Gulf_of_Mexico_could_have_
> > caused_the_bolling_warming>
> >
> > The biggest upset was not to the corals, it was to the human
> civilizations
> > that existed close to the sea. Many cities were buried, many
> civilizations
> > went under and are only preserved in myths. What Plato writes about the
> > sinking of Atlantis is with high probability based on actual events, the
> > sinking of Dogger Bank in the North Sea around the year 8,200 BC as a
> > result of a global transgression punctuated by a megatsunami at a
> critical
> > time when only a low island remained. However, the western seaboard of
> > Europe is full of accounts of sunken cities. Such myths abound around the
> > world. Some have suggested they have to do with psychology but they
> don't;
> > they all reflect real events. How can I be sure? Because on the island of
> > Gotland that instead has risen from the sea, the creation myth talks
> about
> > the island risking from the sea. And take the Lakota myth of the water
> > monster Unktehi that blocked the river and then let out all the water.
> That
> > is just what the inland ice sheet
> >  did according to recent geological findings (around the year 14,600 BC).
> > A huge flood on the Mississippi is also recorded by Native American myths
> > further down river. And all of this is confirmed by geology; every ice
> age
> > of our present ice age period (i.e. the last million years or so) has
> > created a separate canyon and submarine fan in the Gulf of Mexico,
> > accumulating miles of sediment (in thickness).
> >
> > What do you think the inflow of all that glacial meltwater in less than a
> > year did for the corals in the Caribbean? You'd expect them all to be
> dead
> > by now, wouldn't you? Each of those mega floods raised the global sea
> level
> > by meters. Yet all the coral species living there naturally today
> survived,
> > because there has been no migration over the Central American isthmus
> > since. The mega floods must also have plaid havoc with the circulation in
> > the Caribbean Sea. All societies founded on deltas and lowlands must have
> > been wiped out (except those with enough foresight to build a boat, like
> > Noah; speaking of which, the Biblical account of the deluge forms part of
> > these myths that tell the story of the last mega flood: It tells us that
> > the water rose by 15 cubits, i.e. around 7 meters, and that is in the
> realm
> > of where geology says if was).
> >
> > Now, returning to the issue of why corals are dying. The coral death
> > started decades ago, yet the PREDICTED DRAMATIC GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS
> HAVE
> > NOT YET HAPPENED. So even if the predictions are true, and even if they
> > would be unprecedented (which they are clearly not), it can still not
> > explain the coral decline already observed. THE ONLY REASONABLE
> EXPLANATION
> > IS POLLUTION.
> >
> > We don't have to point out which chemical and how it affects the cells.
> It
> > is enough to take a geographical / geological approach and say, the last
> 2
> > centuries the humans have released an ever larger number of completely
> new
> > chemical species in the environment, many of which are sure to be very
> > toxic to at least some species, most of which is probably still unknown.
> > What goes up in the atmosphere gets mixed up in a matter of months or
> > years; what goes into the surface of the ocean gets mixed up in a matter
> of
> > decades through the gyres; and what goes into the deep ocean gets mixed
> up
> > in a matter of millennia through the thermohaline circulation. Most of
> the
> > North American pollution reaches the Gulf Stream, and some circulates
> back
> > to the Caribbean, another branch goes past Europe and sinks to become new
> > global bottom water, emerging in a thousand years or so in the eastern
> > Pacific from where it will then bathe the Pacific corals. Remember Silent
> > Spring? What happened to fresh
> >  water lakes and rivers back then also happens to the ocean, it just
> takes
> > a lot longer time, but eventually all the hens will come home to roost.
> >
> > What to do about it? Change paradigm, do as the European Union: Instead
> af
> > allowing everything except what is banned, ban everything new until it
> has
> > been approved. And FORCE COMPANIES TO DECLARE THE CONTENT IN THEIR
> > PRODUCTS. The U.S. law that allows ingredients to be secret is appalling
> > and mind-boggling.
> >
> > Ulf Erlingsson
> > Lindorm, Inc.
> > http://lindorm.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > On 2017-05-02, at 06:29 , Richard Plate <richarp33 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Ulf,
> > >
> > > I'm unclear about what you mean by "dramatic" in this context.  Are you
> > saying that we have geological records showing us climatic changes
> similar
> > to the current changes in magnitude and rate of change that did not
> result
> > in massive reduction of corals and other species?
> > >
> > > If so, could you direct me to a paper where I could read more about
> that
> > kind of comparison?
> > >
> > > I'm referring to this statement:
> > >
> > > "The hypothesis of those who warn of climate change seems to be that
> the
> > anthropogenic temperature changes at the present time are more dramatic
> > than anything in the past, and that they will lead to consequences that
> are
> > unique. They seem to think that past changes were never that dramatic.
> That
> > is where I beg to differ. In what we Earth Scientists call "Recent" time,
> > as late as a few hundred human generations ago, there were much larger
> and
> > at least as dramatic changes according to the geological archive."
> > >
> > > Thanks for your help.
> > >
> > > -Richard
> > >
> > > On Fri, Apr 28, 2017 at 7:32 AM, Ulf Erlingsson <ceo at lindorm.com
> > <mailto:ceo at lindorm.com>> wrote:
> > > Doug,
> > >
> > > The hypothesis of those who warn of climate change seems to be that the
> > anthropogenic temperature changes at the present time are more dramatic
> > than anything in the past, and that they will lead to consequences that
> are
> > unique. They seem to think that past changes were never that dramatic.
> That
> > is where I beg to differ. In what we Earth Scientists call "Recent" time,
> > as late as a few hundred human generations ago, there were much larger
> and
> > at least as dramatic changes according to the geological archive. And if
> we
> > look at absolute temperatures, then it is disingenuous to compare to the
> > 19th or 20th century as a baseline, since that was the peak of the Little
> > Ice Age.
> > >
> > > Furthermore, after the existence of an Ice Age covering northern Europe
> > (Germany, Poland, Holland) had been convincingly shown by Swedish
> geologist
> > Otto Torell in the 1860's, and it later was understood that there had
> been
> > several, combined with the evidence of falling temperatures, science
> > started worrying about a new ice age. It was in that atmosphere (no pun
> > intended) that Swedish physicist Svante Arrhenius in 1896 calculated that
> > our emissions of greenhouse gases might actually prevent a new Ice Age.
> > >
> > > However, we still don't know for sure why the Ice Age happens, although
> > I have an idea which I have presented as a project on ResearchGate, which
> > has to do with ocean circulation, and if that is true, it is very
> unlikely
> > that global warming can do more than delay the onset a little.
> > >
> > > But back to corals: I am convinced that the biggest issue is NOT global
> > warming, but POLLUTION.
> > >
> > > Ulf
> > >
> > >
> > > > On 2017-04-27, at 20:13 , Douglas Fenner <
> douglasfennertassi at gmail.com
> > <mailto:douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Ulf,
> > > >     It may be that geologists, because of their understanding of the
> > vast expanse of earth history, which has included periods of larger
> > temperature variation than the last few decades, and which some groups of
> > organisms survived, have been more resistant to the evidence of
> > human-caused global warming in recent decades.  However, my understanding
> > is that most if not all geological societies now agree that the recent
> > rapid warming of the earth is mostly caused by humans, by greenhouse gas
> > emissions, deforestation, carbon soot on snow absorbing heat, positive
> > feedback from melting of Arctic ice which reflects light more than water,
> > etc.  In fact, some of the effects of humans, such as the emissions of
> > aerosols (such as SO2 from burning fossil fuels) actually work to reduce
> > global temperatures, though the effects of other emissions are greater
> and
> > cause net global warming.
> > > >      Am I wrong about the geological societies?
> > > >     Cheers,  Doug
> > >
> > > also responding to this:
> > >
> > > > Ulf,
> > > >     My understanding is that climate science data supports the view
> > that the rapid increases in world temperature in recent decades has been
> > caused mostly by human emissions, while earlier, more gradual temperature
> > increases were caused mostly by natural processes (in spite of claims
> that
> > we are in the beginning of a new ice age).  Both of these were present in
> > the graph John presented in his essay.  However, it seems unlikely to me
> > that corals either understand the causes of temperature increases, or
> care
> > what those causes are.  Corals are impacted by temperature increases,
> > whatever the causes of those temperatures are, surely.  That includes
> > turning up the heat in aquaria in experiments.  So it seems to me that
> > John's graph of increasing temperatures IS relevant to the question of
> > whether corals in the Caribbean have been impacted by temperature
> increases
> > or not, and I don't see the relevance of the question of what caused the
> > temperature increases, at least to the ques
> >  ti
> > >  on of impacts on corals.  The effect of increasing temperatures on
> > corals is a mechanistic thing, higher temperatures stress or kill corals.
> > Cause of temperature increase is irrelevant for that.
> > > >      That said, it is good to remind us of the broader processes over
> > geological time.  That could include the fact that present temperature
> > increases exceed those that have happened in a very long period of time,
> > well beyond the range of time you've referred to.
> > > > Cheers,  Doug
> > > >
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
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> > >
> >
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>
>
>
> --
> Elizabeth Sherman, Ph.D.
> Biology
> Bennington College
> website: http://faculty.bennington.edu/~sherman/
> *Save the world. Save a Coral.*
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-- 
Dennis Hubbard
Chair, Dept of Geology-Oberlin College Oberlin OH 44074
(440) 775-8346

* "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
 Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"