[Coral-List] Coral on the Great Barrier Reef was 'cooked' during 2016 marine heatwave. REALLY? REALLY? REALLY?

Tue May 8 19:43:13 EDT 2018

Thanks for clearing this up Mark.

I have been sloppy with the images i have used. But the facts remain
(straight from the Hughes 2018 data) that huge mortality (~55-60% loss in
coral cover) occurred at heat stress as low as 3-4 DHW. See attached Hughes
figure:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325023566_Bleaching_and_Mortality_on_the_far_northern_GBR_in_201516_Data_taken_from_Hughes_et_al_2018_Global_warming_transforms_coral_reef_assemblages_Nature_556_pages492-496_2018

This is extreme sensitivity. Nothing has remotely come close to this level
of sensitivity in 1998 or 2002 or 2008/9 across all areas of the GBR.

Please be clear. I am not at all critical of the NOAA products. They are
great!! I am just interested in people being aware of how different this
event was compared to other bleaching events on the GBR for the same level
of heat stress.

Anyway, all good food for the brain.

I am reminded of a quote from one of my favourite American Authors (Henry
David Thoreau), which cautions us to always keep an open mind on things.

 'i fear that the character of my knowledge is from year to year becoming
more distinct & scientific—That in exchange for views as wide as heaven's
cope I am being narrowed down to the field of the microscope—I see details
not wholes nor the shadow of the whole. I count some parts, and say 'i
know''.19 August 1851.

Thanks Mark.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Scott_Wooldridge

Cited Literature

Hughes et al. (2018) Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.
Nature* 556*, pages492–496 (2018)

On Wed, May 9, 2018 at 6:40 AM, Mark Eakin - NOAA Federal <
mark.eakin at noaa.gov> wrote:

> oops. Rob van Woesik pointed out that one of my links was wrong. The link
> to the 2009 DHW map should have been:
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/
> composite/annual/gif/2009/coraltemp5km_dhw_max_2009_australia_gbr.gif
>
> These are all available from our new CoralTemp data we are placing online
> at:
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/v3.1/
> and
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/v3.1/composite.php
>
> These provide our 5km CRW products for the entire satellite record since
> 1985.
>
> Cheers,
> Mark
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------
> C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
> Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
> Center for Satellite Applications and Research
> Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
> e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
> url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
> Twitter: @CoralReefWatch FB: Coral Reef Watch
>
> NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP)
> 5830 University Research Ct
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=5830+University+Research+Ct&entry=gmail&source=g>.,
> E/RA32
> College Park, MD 20740
> Office: (301) 683-3320     Fax: (301) 683-3301
> Mobile: (301) 502-8608    SOCD Office: (301) 683-3300
>
> “We all know that human activities are changing the atmosphere in
> unexpected and in unprecedented ways...Together, we have a responsibility
> to ourselves and the generations to come to fulfill our stewardship
> obligations."
> President George H.W. Bush, February 5 1990
>
> On May 8, 2018, at 10:29 AM, Mark Eakin - NOAA Federal <
> mark.eakin at noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> For those following this thread, I’m afraid there seems to be some
> misapplication of our Coral Reef Watch products in these posts. The
> document cited below in ResearchGate uses our Four-Month Bleaching Outlook
> to compare the heat stress in 2009 with that seen in 2016:
>
> On Apr 20, 2018, at 12:12 AM, Scott Wooldridge <swooldri23 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
> ... Would it also surprise people to know that the same far northern reefs
> experienced heating levels in excess of 8-10 degree heat weeks stress
> (highest level on NOAA 4-level scale) in the austral summer of 2008/09, yet
> NO bleaching was recorded despite extensive regional searches from
> dedicated cruises?
>
> See here for a comparison of the heating stress in 2008/09 and 2015/16.
>
> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324644910_Compariso
> n_of_heat_stress_in_the_northern_GBR_for_201516_and_200809
>
> I remember in great detail the 2008/09 situation because I helped plan
> cruise trips to search for coral bleaching based on the NOAA heat stress
> maps. We fully expected to observe severe bleaching, as evidenced by the
> media reporting of the day. But we found nothing (zero bleaching)
>
>
> Those products in Figures A and B of the document on ResearchGate are not
> maps of satellite-observed heat stress. They are the climate model-based
> Four Month Outlooks of potential heat stress. In fact, Fig. A in that
> document is totally mislabeled as "Heat stress in the northern GBR for
> 2015/16 bleaching event”. Instead, it is the global map of the 60%
> probability outlook of heat stress for March to June of 2016 run on March
> 15 2016. In short, it is a map of the likely global heat stress in the
> month _after_ the heat stress had peaked in 2016.
>
> The actual image for the maximum heat stress alert levels during the 2016
> marine heatwave would be found at:
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/composit
> e/annual/gif/2016/coraltemp5km_baa_max_2016_australia_gbr.gif
>
> In it you can see the reefs of the Far Northern GBR were under Alert Level
> 2 conditions. In fact, using the Degree Heating Weeks figure found at:
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/composit
> e/annual/gif/2016/coraltemp5km_dhw_max_2016_australia_gbr.gif
>
> you can see most of the reefs passed 10°C-weeks of heat stress.
>
> In contrast, the maps for 2009 show that the maximum alert level for those
> reefs was between a Bleaching Warning and Alert Level 2:
>
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/composit
> e/annual/gif/2009/coraltemp5km_baa_max_2009_australia_gbr.gif
>
> and at DHW values of 3-4 °C weeks:
> https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/composit
> e/annual/gif/2009/coraltemp5km_baa_max_2009_australia_gbr.gif
>
> An important distinction in the pattern of heat stress in those two years
> is that not only was heat stress much higher in 2016 but the high levels of
> heat stress clearly penetrated inside the main reef line, whereas in 2009
> it stopped at the reef line.
>
> While there is great value to using the climate model-based Four-Month
> Bleaching Outlook to understand what heat stress _may_ be seen in the
> future, it is only a probabilistic forecast product and does not record
> actual values. The satellite-based observation products must be used to
> understand that stress actually experienced by corals.
>
> Cheers,
> Mark
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------
> C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
> Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
> Center for Satellite Applications and Research
> Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
> e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
> url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
> Twitter: @CoralReefWatch FB: Coral Reef Watch
>
> NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP)
> 5830 University Research Ct
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=5830+University+Research+Ct&entry=gmail&source=g>.,
> E/RA32
> College Park, MD 20740
> Office: (301) 683-3320     Fax: (301) 683-3301
> Mobile: (301) 502-8608    SOCD Office: (301) 683-3300
>
> “My hope is that Congress will, at long last, acknowledge that climate
> change is real, that humans are contributing to it, and that the potential
> consequences of inaction are far greater than the projected costs of
> action."
> Christine Todd Whitman, EPA Administrator under President George W. Bush,
> June 18 2014
>
>
> On Fri, Apr 20, 2018 at 12:12 AM, Scott Wooldridge <swooldri23 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Dear Coral Listers,
>>
>>
>> I draw your attention to a press release/article describing the findings
>> from the recent Hughes et al. (2018) Nature paper describing the Great
>> Barrier Reef (GBR) coral bleaching event in the austral summer of 2015/16.
>>
>>
>> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-19/marine-heatwave-so-bad
>> -it-cooked-parts-of-great-barrier-reef/9667518
>>
>>
>> Now I am all for making the public aware of the dire situation coral reefs
>> face during the Antropocene. And maybe such reporting of the results is
>> good enough for the general public. But it is certainly NOT good enough
>> for
>> scientists, coral reef managers or policy makers.
>>
>>
>> Indeed, it is my personal opinion that the entire reporting of the 2015/16
>> coral bleaching event in the previously pristine far northern GBR has been
>> rather misleading - with a single-minded preoccupation with sensationalism
>> and media grab bites rather than the pursuit of science that increases our
>> ability to help save coral reefs into the future.
>>
>>
>> Lets consider the facts for the 2015/16 coral bleaching event, wherein the
>> corals supposedly 'cooked' like crabs in a boiling pot of water. Would it
>> surprise people to know that the corals SEVERELY bleached at surface
>> heating levels less than 3-4 degree heating weeks. Such low heating levels
>> usually only warrant a precautionary warning from NOAA (i.e. level 1 on a
>> 4
>> level scale) Would it also surprise people to know that the same far
>> northern reefs experienced heating levels in excess of 8-10 degree heat
>> weeks stress (highest level on NOAA 4-level scale) in the austral summer
>> of
>> 2008/09, yet NO bleaching was recorded despite extensive regional searches
>> from dedicated cruises?
>>
>>
>> See here for a comparison of the heating stress in 2008/09 and 2015/16.
>>
>>
>> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324644910_Compariso
>> n_of_heat_stress_in_the_northern_GBR_for_201516_and_200809
>>
>>
>>
>> I remember in great detail the 2008/09 situation because I helped plan
>> cruise
>> trips to search for coral bleaching based on the NOAA heat stress maps. We
>> fully expected to observe severe bleaching, as evidenced by the media
>> reporting of the day. But we found nothing (zero bleaching)
>>
>>
>> Claims that the corals 'cooked' in 2015/16 are quite simply absurd and
>> show
>> a complete lack of understanding of the eitology of natural coral
>> bleaching. Rather than a preoccupation with sensationalism and media grab
>> bites, the key question driving the data analysis of the 2015/16 bleaching
>> event should be, 'why such high bleaching sensitivity at low thermal
>> stress?' or reposed differently 'why such low sensitivity to high thermal
>> stress in 2008/09?' And overarching all this, 'what does this mean for
>> managing the GBR?', i.e. what can we learn from these 2-events that helps
>> provide managers with new levers to increase the 'resistance' of corals to
>> warming sea temperatures.
>>
>>
>> In my next post, I will offer some personal insight into the above
>> questions.
>>
>>
>> These are important times for coral reef research. We need to recommit to
>> good science. We need to ignore sensationalism at all costs. Corals did
>> not
>> 'cook' on the far northern GBR in 2015/16. In fact they severely bleached
>> at temperatures which are not normally associated with mass bleaching
>> events. This is significant and should be clear and evident to all.
>> Indeed,
>> this fact holds the key to the survival (or not) of coral reefs into the
>> future.
>>
>>
>> Scott
>>
>>
>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Scott_Wooldridge
>> _______________________________________________
>> Coral-List mailing list
>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> http://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>
>
>
>
> --
>
> C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
> Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
> Center for Satellite Applications and Research
> Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
> e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
> URL: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
> Twitter: @CoralReefWatch <https://twitter.com/coralreefwatch> FB: Coral
> Reef Watch <https://www.facebook.com/coralreefwatch/>
>
> NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP)
> 5830 University Research Ct
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=5830+University+Research+Ct&entry=gmail&source=g>.,
> E/RA32
> College Park, MD 20740
> Office: (301) 683-3320     Fax: (301) 683-3301
> Mobile: (301) 502-8608    SOCD Office: (301) 683-3300
>
> "A world without coral reefs is unimaginable."
> Dr. Jane Lubchenco, March 25 2010
>
>
>