[Coral-List] Vulnerability to collapse of coral reef ecosystems in the Western Indian Ocean

[David Obura]

Dear listers,

Please have a look at our latest paper, from a regional (+ friends!) group of authors applying the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems to coral reefs of the Western Indian Ocean.

LINK: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00817-0

Apart from the specific findings (see abstract below), some key attributes of the study:

• we found climate risk to be more severe than that from overfishing, but … climate risk is assessed over the next 50 years (for which the next ten years will be critical for achieving a good outcome), while risk from fishing is historical, so is at the stated levels right now. In both cases, immediate action is critical.
• we used the GCRMN results from our regional network to conduct this study, so the method we applied can be adapted to every coral reef region around the world.
• with the global update by the GCRMN released this October, it means this RLE analysis can be applied globally with minimal effort, to produce a globally consistent output on the risk of collapse of reefs globally.

Through the IUCN Specialist Group we’re keen to promote regional teams to undertake the Red List of Ecosystems in your regions, so please do get in touch about that.

Unfortunately, we’re unable to afford the Open Access fee, so do sign up here - https://bit.ly/3Inr4DX - for a reprint if needed.

sincerely,

David Obura, on behalf of the author team.


TITLE: Vulnerability to collapse of coral reef ecosystems in the Western Indian Ocean

AUTHORS: David Obura, Mishal Gudka, Melita Samoilys, Kennedy Osuka  , James Mbugua, David A. Keith, Sean Porter, Ronan Roche, Ruben van Hooidonk, Said Ahamada, Armindo Araman, Juliet Karisa, John Komakoma, Mouchtadi Madi, Isabelle Ravinia, Haja Razafindrainibe, Saleh Yahya and Francisco Zivane

ABSTRACT: Ecosystems worldwide are under increasing threat. We applied a standardized method for assessing the risk of ecosystem col- lapse, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems, to coral reefs in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), covering 11,919 km2 of reef (~5% of the global total). Our approach combined indicators of change in historic ecosystem extent, ecosystem functioning (hard corals, fleshy algae, herbivores and piscivores) and projected sea temperature warming. We show that WIO coral reefs are vulnerable to collapse at the regional level, while in 11 nested ecoregions they range from critically endangered (islands, driven by future warming) to vulnerable (continental coast and northern Seychelles, driven principally by fishing pressure). Responses to avoid coral reef collapse must include ecosystem-based management of reefs and adjacent systems combined with mitigating and adapting to climate change. Our approach can be replicated across coral reefs globally to help countries and other actors meet conservation and sustainability targets set under multiple global conven- tions—including the Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 global biodiversity framework and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Some media available -

Mongabay OpEd by David Obura and Melita Samoilys - https://news.mongabay.com/2021/12/we-must-reverse-the-pressures-on-coral-reefs-before-its-too-late-commentary/

The Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/06/all-coral-reefs-in-western-indian-ocean-at-high-risk-of-collapse-next-50-years-global-heating-aoe


David Obura || CORDIO East Africa, #9 Kibaki Flats, Kenyatta Beach, Bamburi Beach, P.O.BOX 10135 Mombasa 80101, Kenya
Email: dobura at cordioea.net  --  davidobura at gmail.com
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