[Coral-List] SCTLD in ballast water THE REAL CAUSE OF CORAL REEF DEMISE
Risk, Michael
riskmj at mcmaster.ca
Thu Aug 18 14:21:37 UTC 2022
Alina: Excellent idea! I suggest we implement parts of it right away. I
take as my model Swift's "Modest Proposal" to deal with the Irish
famine.
Because consumption is far more important than population, we need to
note that citizens of Sudan produce about 1/50^th of people in Canada
and the US. To balance the entire output of Sudan, therefore, it would
require elimination of only 150,000 or so Americans. I suggest we
transfer the citizens of Fort Lauderdale to Sudan, and bring in an
equal number of Sudanese. Fort Lauderdale's about the right size to
offset all the emissions from Sudan, and it's a goner anyway when
Antarctica lets go. (I could have suggested Halifax, but I like
Halifax.)
Now that we have solved that problem, let's look at statements to the
effect that climate change is the largest threat facing reefs.
I like to look at Gardner et al 2003 (Science). Their results jibe with
my own observations, and those of my elderly colleagues. If there has
been a better analysis since, please let me know.
Several things emerge when we look at the figure in Gardner. First of
all, for the Diadema Denizens: there is no inflection in the trend
coincident with the dieoff. The decline seems to have continued without
noticing the presence of our prickly partner. Next: decline was well
under way in the 1970's.
In short: when climate change finally kicks the last remnants over the
cliff, they will be only a ragged reminder of those magnificent
structures some of us remember from a half-century ago.
Mike
__________________________________________________________________
From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf of
Alina Szmant via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Sent: Tuesday, August 16, 2022 5:14 PM
To: Steven L Miller <smiller52 at gmail.com>; Ligia Collado-Vides
<colladol at fiu.edu>; coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
<coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] SCTLD in ballast water THE REAL CAUSE OF
CORAL REEF DEMISE
Dear Steve:
Well reasoned response to what I am seeing as knee jerk reactions about
causes of coral death that are poorly thought out with regard to data.
But I want to amend one sentence/paragraph you wrote:
"Unfortunately, we are at a point in the history of our reefs where a
focus on one or two local port expansions takes attention
away from the proximal cause that has killed or will kill our coral
reefs - global warming" ... YOU STOPPED WRITING TOO SOON.
I would replace 'global warming' with "... the continued increasing
human population size and the economic activities needed to provide
for the SOON TO BE 8 BILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH [MILESTONE COMING THIS
NOVEMBER]. Our numbers are increasing by 83 MILLION humans per year;
227,397 humans PER DAY. Some consume more than others but all aspire to
shelter, food (requiring more deforestation or habitat conversion to
grow food; more overfishing, more pollution from growing more meat
animals); clothing, sources of energy for all our activities, whether
renewable or fossil fuel (including deforestation for making charcoal
in poor areas), and the list is endless.
Instead of worrying about ship ballast water and port expansion, I
suggest folks worry about the root cause: why do we need so many ships
and bigger ports? To transport food and other goods for human
consumption for people who live far away from where the goods are
produced. If every human had to survive on only what could be acquired
with a 100 mile radius from home, all the global environmental problems
we are facing would quicky disappear along with much of humanity, and
our use of fossil fuels directly responsible for about 1/3 of global
warming. Yes it would be terribly messy especially in all the larger
cities... but then no pain, no gain.
Of course, I am not expecting many people to accept this as a realistic
solution. I pose this to point out the hypocrisy of folks trying to
blame any one or more human activities or enterprises for coral reef
demise when the cause started ca. 10,000 years ago when humans began to
domesticate plants and animals (especially food animals). More
dependable food supply lead to population increase; farming crops lead
to human settlements which grew over time from small communities to
cities of many millions. And every additional human added to the impact
of humanity on not just coral reefs but all terrestrial and marine
ecosystems. As technologies became sophisticated and required
electricity to function, the rate of humanity's impact of global
environments AND INCLUDING GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
accelerated, until here we are with a hot mess on our hands. All of
this in less than 10k years.
I don't see a realistic way of putting this genie back in the bottle
without (a) doing something dramatic about human population size:
preventing ALL unwanted births would make a huge dent! I've seen
figures that globally over 40% of births are unwanted. (b) incentivize
smaller family size instead of handing out tax credits and welfare to
women having more than 2 children, regardless of cultural mores, or the
stupid "I just love babies". (c) reduce consumerism which is
destroying the global environment by mining for metals, petroleum
products and other raw materials needed to manufacture all the stuff we
surround ourselves with.
Since I know none of the above would ever be considered by either the
elected officials that run our governments or the people being
governed, I think most efforts to save this species or ecosystem don't
have any chance of long term success. As soon as one problem is 'fixed'
it will be undone by the 83 million new people per year needing
resources.
As Pogo famously stated on the first Earth Day in 1970 when there were
'only' 3.68 BILLION of us on Earth (fewer than half the numbers of
humans alive today): "WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY AND HE IS US".
If only we had listened back then....
***********************************************************************
**
Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
CISME Instruments LLC
210 Braxlo Lane,
Wilmington NC 28409 USA
AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
cell: 910-200-3913
EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com
CISME IS NOW SOLD BY QUBIT SYSTEMS; [1]https://qubitbiology.com/cisme/
**********************************************************
Videos: CISME Promotional Video 5:43 min
[2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAYeR9qX71A&t=6s
CISME Short version Demo Video 3:00 min
[3]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa4SqS7yC08
CISME Cucalorus 10x10 Sketch 4:03 min
[4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12sAV8oUluE
-----Original Message-----
From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> On Behalf Of
Steven L Miller via Coral-List
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2022 7:39 PM
To: Ligia Collado-Vides <colladol at fiu.edu>;
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] SCTLD in ballast water
Dear Ligia
A quick note in response to your comments about my post. If you want to
continue the discussion, then please contact me directly.
Why am I certain there is no link between SCTLD and the Port Miami
dredge project? That's not what I said. Certainty in science is a rare
thing, especially in ecology. Instead, I said that there's nothing
published that conclusively ties the project to the coral disease.
There
are dozens of relevant articles in a recent edition of Marine Frontiers
in Science and dozens more published elsewhere. None link SCTLD to the
dredging project. Good science exists on the subject, and we will learn
more over time.
Regarding your comment about what might be in the canal sediments and
Miami River, dredging did not occur in the canals and river.
Interestingly, the "urban corals" described by Colin Ford are in the
port. They are in excellent condition, including no SCTLD.
Also, the dredging operations that deepened the channel removed mostly
chopped rock and suctioned materials. You may know that some dredge
operations use dynamite to blast the rock. Indeed, earlier phases
(2005-2006) included dynamiting. However, using a cutter-head to chop
rock has a smaller environmental footprint than dynamite. So, while I
can't speak for fish, marine mammals, and sea turtles, I assume
dynamite
is not a favorite.
The important question is, "Why do stories continue to show up that
link
the Port Miami dredge project to SCTLD - and not part of this thread
but
also to killing large numbers of corals?" On the latter, significant
publications conclusively point to SCTLD as killing large numbers of
corals close to the dredging project (including control sites) and
throughout the region, rather than dredging and its plumes. The
literature on coral mortality during the dredging project is maturing.
The outcome is clear and conclusively points to SCTLD as the
significant
source. That's not to say that dredging did not kill any corals.
Fortunately, Port Miami included the most comprehensive coral reef
monitoring program ever conducted in association with a dredging
project. It is fair to say that science has prevailed on this topic,
not
newspaper headlines.
Dredge projects attract much attention, as they should. However, I
think
it's reasonable to point out that these projects are also easy targets.
They look bad, can make big messes, and some have done significant
damage. But each project needs to be evaluated on its merits and risks.
That provides an opening that some environmental groups use to help
raise funds, expand membership lists, and try and slow coastal
development. Unfortunately, we are at a point in the history of our
reefs where a focus on one or two local port expansions takes attention
away from the proximal cause that has killed or will kill our coral
reefs - global warming.
It's important to note that Port Miami and Port Everglades (expansion
is
in the planning stages) are found adjacent to habitats with extremely
low coral cover. Specifically, hard bottoms with naturally low coral
cover of a few percent - or less. They are still productive habitats
and
ecologically important, but not the same as the iconic locations that
previously described Florida's offshore coral reefs.
Additionally, the seascape-scale changes to Port Miami started about
120
years ago when Government Cut was first dredged. As a result, the area
is unrecognizable today compared to its natural condition.
Finally, high mitigation costs are associated with dredging projects
based on predicted and documented environmental damage. Therefore, it
matters what killed the corals.
Best Regards
Steven
smiller at nova.edu <[5]mailto:smiller at nova.edu>
On 8/11/22 12:01 PM, Ligia Collado-Vides wrote:
> Dear Dr. Miller
>
> Thank you very much for your response and thoughtful comments. I
appreciate your call for caution.
>
> My intention is to bring to our attention the need to have a forensic
perspective in our approaches when asking questions about causes of
diseases, and others. I am not an expert at all in this issue, but I
have been in the region and had the great opportunity to experience a
living healthy reef in the 80's, and also long enough to see how we
concentrate in few causes and do not address some more controversial
perspectives. Some might be very difficult to publish.
>
> I do agree that if we do not make the distinction between working
hypothesis and explanatory narratives we can create problems. However,
I do think we cannot stop asking ourselves about all possible related
events that can be involved in a problem of this dimension, that goes
beyond the Keys, and its causes.
>
> We have background information that we can use to establish working
hypothesis and if tested properly we can at least have some information
to avoid even larger impacts from our human need of expansion.
>
> Dr. Miller, may I ask why you are certain that there is no link at
all between SCTLD with the Miami dredge project? Please take this
question from a scientific-hypothesis driven perspective. I really
would like to know that there is not link in there.
>
> " To my knowledge, nothing conclusive exists that ties SCTLD to
ballast water or the Miami dredge project. Testable hypothesis could be
framed related to ballast water. I'm not sure the same can be said
related to SCTLD and the dredge project. After all, the Miami sewage
outfall is in close proximity to the dredge site and outflow from the
Miami River is through the dredge channel. Both contain a thick stew of
anthropogenic bacteria and viruses and who knows what else."
>
> I agree 100% we do not have any conclusive study to link SCLTD to the
above mentioned events. Do we have other certain and clear links that
can help the community understand the process?
>
> I agree also 100% on the use of the precautionary principle. If we
already know that the Miami Port is localized in close proximity to
polluted outflows such as Miami River, is it wise to support, or well,
not oppose or at least ask the potential harm a dredging activity can
cause? We do not have, in my knowledge, data about what is accumulated
in the sediments close to all the canals, and Miami River. Science will
never bring the 100% certainty, nature and interconnectivity of events
is incredible complicated, however, we can get closer to one and more
potential causes of problems, we do not need to eliminate, with the
same lack of evidence potential stressor.
>
> I do not want to make this conversation too long. Thanks for the
call for caution, I do still think we need to have multi-causal
perspectives and a forensic approach, complex yes, important yes.
>
> I hope you have all access to this web site, interesting spread from
2014..... just that site can open minds to many working hypothesis,
what background we will use to decide to eliminate some and think
others are workable? Our challenge as scientists in a rapid changing
world and limited resources are huge.
>
> [6]https://floridakeys.noaa.gov/coral-disease/disease.html
>
> Thank you all for your input, I hope you read this with the same
intention is expressed.
>
> Best
>
> Ligia Collado Vides
> Teaching Professor
> Marine Macroalgae Research lab
> Florida International University
> Miami, USA
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Coral-List<coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> On Behalf
Of Steven L Miller via Coral-List
> Sent: Monday, August 8, 2022 3:38 PM
> To:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] SCTLD in ballast water
>
> Dear Dr. Collado-Vides
>
> I am a long-time fan of Shifting Baselines, which your first point
addresses. Our views are shaped by slow motion change and forgotten
history. But to your second point, if you are suggesting that the Miami
dredge project has something to do with SCTLD, then you are mistaken.
> While you acknowledge "no proof of anything," I'm concerned that many
on this List will infer a link between the dredge project and SCTLD
based only on your links to decade-old newspaper stories.
>
> To my knowledge, nothing conclusive exists that ties SCTLD to ballast
water or the Miami dredge project. Testable hypothesis could be framed
related to ballast water. I'm not sure the same can be said related to
SCTLD and the dredge project. After all, the Miami sewage outfall is in
close proximity to the dredge site and outflow from the Miami River is
through the dredge channel. Both contain a thick stew of anthropogenic
bacteria and viruses and who knows what else.
>
> This thread was started when the precautionary principle was cited as
a reason to address ballast water and SCTLD. That is, act based on the
idea of not doing possible harm instead of having to first prove
damage.
> In this case, while it'snot harmful to suggest (hypothesize) such a
linkage to dredging, without context and facts (and testing) a false
narrative can easily arise.
>
> I apologize if I misunderstood and you weren't suggesting a link
between dredging and SCTLD.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> Steven Miller, PhD
>
> Senior Scientist
>
> Nova Southeastern University
>
>
>
> On 8/5/22 6:29 PM, Ligia Collado-Vides via Coral-List wrote:
>> Hi all,
>> We have no proof of anything, published papers can wait for many
years, or never publish because we do not have the people at the right
time. We need more forensic perspectives in the way we address the
environmental problems.
>>
>> However memory is also something we lose very rapidly, Dredging for
the huge enlargement of the Port of Miami 2018-2019, spread to the
lower Keys, Caribbean.... years after....
>>
>>
[7]https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://maritime-executive.com/article/c
on
>>
struction-begins-at-portmiami-on-u-s-s-largest-cruise-terminal__;!!Fju
>>
HKAHQs5udqho!N_1stqx5lewtX-UoBuBLGnpAo46b6Ox4TThg6BpwWNUKb2d0SG2oRZyZc
>> IsyA7laWQHZxpCQow6HzvJo0A$
>>
>>
>>
[8]https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://maritime-executive.com/article/c
onstruction-begins-at-portmiami-on-u-s-s-largest-cruise-terminal__;!!Fj
uHKAHQs5udqho!KV_SnyTil-umd_TTEZ-mnp55wd_y9xV0o4VTcTnst1NGwv_sONSLXMXhS
JKDtnLwM9QtMI69_2AvZWedzzyTRN1-BDScQQ$
>> Construction Begins at PortMiami on U.S.'s Largest Cruise
Terminal
>>
>>
>> U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Takes a Prominent Role at RIMPAC. Published
Aug 2, 2022 9:44 PM by The Maritime Executive This year's Rim of the
Pacific naval exercise has received considerable attention ...
>> maritime-executive.com
>>
>> Draconic events need to be documented, we tend to totally forget
traumatic events, and of course request accountability...
>>
>> Best
>> Ligia
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Coral-List<coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> On Behalf
Of
>> Eugene Shinn via Coral-List
>> Sent: Saturday, July 30, 2022 3:46 PM
>> To:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> Subject: [Coral-List] SCTLD in ballast water
>>
>> Note: This message originated from outside the FIU Faculty/Staff
email system.
>>
>>
>> I scanned the interesting research paper that blames coral disease
is spread by ships ballast water. It is a reasonable hypothesis.
However, I agree with Alina Szmant. I too have not seen the proof. She
pointed out that the paper was not peer reviewed. The first thing I
noticed in the papers title were the words, "simulated ballast water."
If I were a shipping company owner and that study was being used as
proof my ballast water was the major spreader and cause of coral reef
demise I would surely have my high paid lawyers go on the attack. They
could quickly point out that the study of simulated ballast water does
not prove my ballast water causes disease. That otherwise excellent
study made me wonder why did the authors not sample water from actual
ship ballast tanks? Why use simulated ballast water? At the same time I
have to agree there is no evidence that real ballast water is not a
carrier of coral disease. Ballast water may actually be spreading coral
toxins from reef to reef. However, the real question is If there are
disease organisms in ballast water, where did they come from in the
first place. Clearly once these agents are in the water column they can
easily be moved along with water currents. They do need ballast water
for transport. The major current flow directions in the Caribbean are
well known and the strongest of these currents flow past the Belize and
Florida Keys reefs.
>>
>> As many list readers know I have been advocating since the 1980s
that disease agents in the Caribbean were originally brought to the
western Atlantic/Caribbean in dust clouds transported by the
Tradewinds. Dust particles carrying disease causing agents are
constantly dropping out as the dust clouds move along. Many even cross
over into the Pacific. Once corals and other organisms including
/Diadema/ and Seafan diseases become established they are easily
transmitted down current to affect other marine organisms. I have often
suggested the demise of the staghorn fields at San Salvador in 1983,
was a starting point for such transport.
>>
>> Back when my USGS dust study team was active in the late 1990s they
>> cultured and identified around 200 microbes and fungi that were
being
>> transmitted in African dust clouds. At the time we knew asthma was
>> rampant in children on those windward islands in the Bahamas. Even
>> Puerto Rico is well known for its respiratory diseases. In those
days
>> it baffled me why so many competent scientists rejected the dust
>> hypothesis. Later as I matured I realized it was all about politics
>> and funding. I suppose blaming coral diseases on ballast water these
>> days is politically correct. Gene
>> _______________________________________________
>> Coral-List mailing list
>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
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[9]https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/list
in
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fo/coral-list__;!!FjuHKAHQs5udqho!IigoUmYtS9GmQw81Y5taBVO048hO7uBHJjfh
>> vrpK5Kmp35TuH6yn8D-JoC3dnjww4oXtpXstekSDTcoB6M6dc1r8bZZkoQ$
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References
1. https://qubitbiology.com/cisme/
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAYeR9qX71A&t=6s
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa4SqS7yC08
4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12sAV8oUluE
5. mailto:smiller at nova.edu
6. https://floridakeys.noaa.gov/coral-disease/disease.html
7. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://maritime-executive.com/article/con
8. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://maritime-executive.com/article/construction-begins-at-portmiami-on-u-s-s-largest-cruise-terminal__;!!FjuHKAHQs5udqho!KV_SnyTil-umd_TTEZ-mnp55wd_y9xV0o4VTcTnst1NGwv_sONSLXMXhSJKDtnLwM9QtMI69_2AvZWedzzyTRN1-BDScQQ$
9. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listin
10. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listin
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