[Coral-List] 2. Re: Coral reef health over time vs human population trends (Douglas Fenner)

[David Obura]

Dear Listers,

happy new year - I think I’ve missed most of this year already somehow, and coincidentally dropped in on this daily digest. Clearly also missed a reference to the dreaded African Dust … oh my favourite topic on coral-list!!

But I see there’s been a discussion on global population (and sorry if I’m going over old ground) … I’ve gone through a big swing  on these issues with the last 3 years of working on planetary boundaries with the Earth Commission, with seeing the clear evidence of what is driving exceedance of those boundaries … and its clearly consumption levels (yes yes, multiplied by population, but one is a bigger factor than the other).

Now both population and consumption are touchy issues with protagonists for or against the other as the primary driver … but as some have pointed out consumption levels can change in a matter of years/decades (it ‘just’ needs value change, easy, right?), while population levels could take centuries - particularly to decline to below-threshold levels that many espouse. But also … total global population will only rise a maximum 40% more than today, whereas economy and consumption levels could grow by factors of 2 to 5, even 10 as some desire - so which is the FAR bigger problem assuming business as usual values continue? Consumption by the top 30, 10, 5 and 1% will destroy much more before population gets anywhere near its peak.

I had thought to share these papers earlier reflecting my thoughts on these issues around the Global Biodiviersity Framework negotiated in December 2022, which I tracked closely, and what I see as an intensely frustrating focus of conservation circles (including ours) just on conservation/restoration actions, and not on the clear drivers of decline - overconsumption by wealthy economies, and wealthy people in poor economies (not in any way definitive, but my musings).

• https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(22)00589-9
• https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1gcJ19C%7EIu08zW - free link but just till 8 April, I new I should have shared earlier!!

So definitely in agreement with Austen here on the source and solutions to these problems - but no-one with a lot of consumption is willing to admit they should consume 50% less AND provide space for low-consumers to increase their consumption levels to equity/parity. I fully agree over-populatoin locally is a terrible problem for environments and ecologies - but at global scales, "it’s the economy sweetie” (paraphrased!! ;-))

These will be the defining research and sustainability topics of the coming decade, and it would be great to see our community pivot to address the DRIVERS of problems and deep, rather than tinkering solutions.

best to all!

David

David Obura PhD, MBS
CORDIO East Africa, #9 Kibaki Flats, Kenyatta Beach, Bamburi Beach, P.O.BOX 10135 Mombasa 80101, Kenya
Email: dobura at cordioea.net  --  davidobura at gmail.com
Websites: www.cordioea.net  --   www.wiofutures.net  --  www.coralspecialistgroup.org
Mobile: +254-715 067417; skype dobura; Twitter @dobura
On 3 Apr 2023 at 16:20 +0300, coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov, wrote:
>
> On Mon, Mar 27, 2023 at 1:22 PM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > > Good thoughts Alina and Doug,
> > >
> > > Alina, one thing to consider is that most of what you eat there in
> > > Wilmington NC is imported- if the definition is across state lines- and
> > > much comes from thousands of miles away.
> > > However, the peoples of Melanesia that I have described earlier, are the
> > > most food secure and self-sufficient people I have ever encountered, with
> > > very low consumption of imported foods, less than 10% of their diet.
> > They
> > > eat what they grow or catch. No matter what happens to the global
> > economy,
> > > they will be minimally impacted, but climate change has them in its
> > > sights. The over-consumption and carbon intensive lifestyles of the rich
> > > nations threaten their long term existence.
> > >
> > > The global economy favors the USA and rich nations, as they can create
> > > trillions of dollars out of thin air, while poor nations have to work and
> > > sweat for every devalued dollar they earn. The average daily wage in the
> > > tourism industry here in Fiji is 15 USD per day- for those who can find
> > > jobs, and with only a small raise in 20+ years, the purchasing power of a
> > > week's take home pay is less than half what it was 20 years ago. The
> > > university marine studies graduates who I have trained in coral
> > adaptation
> > > work take jobs as resort marine biologists for a mere 5K USD per annum.
> > > The unjust global economic order is the driver of instability and
> > > emigration. The developed world has all the advantages, plus is largely
> > > responsible for climate change.
> > >
> > > The populations have not increased greatly in the rural areas, and as
> > Doug
> > > mentions, many have gone way down due to urban drift and emigration. As
> > > far as overfishing is concerned, subsistence fishing is not at
> > overfishing
> > > levels, but adding commercial fishing to this in order to earn money for
> > > essentials tips it over. It is especially easy to overfish the
> > > invertebrates, the clams and sea cucumbers and lobsters, as they do not
> > run
> > > and hide from the fishers, but the reef fish continue to be sufficient
> > for
> > > community needs in most places, especially where community tabu areas
> > MPAs
> > > continue to be respected, and where the people are too poor for the nylon
> > > fishing nets. The solution within reach of the islanders is not birth
> > > control, but rather training in alternate economic activities as well as
> > > restoring customary management of marine resources, which our
> > organization
> > > is focused on. There is a new stirring among the chiefs to re-establish
> > > permanent no-take areas that a hundred years back were scattered around
> > > Fiji: the sacred reefs. The community based Tabu areas that we first
> > > helped establish in 2000, tend to be opened every few years, and so they
> > > are of limited effectiveness especially for slow to recover invertebrate
> > > species.
> > >
> > > Yes the planet is diverse, but for the vast South Pacific region, it is a
> > > lack of economic alternatives to fishing, plus climate injustice that are
> > > driving the degradation of coral reefs, not overpopulation. The
> > uninhabited
> > > and un-fished islands have lost most of their corals due to mass
> > bleaching
> > > and no other factor.
> > >
> > > One Planet, One People, One Atmosphere, One Ocean.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Austin
> > >
> > >
> > > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> > > Corals for Conservation
> > > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands