[Coral-List] 2. Re: Coral reef health over time vs human population trends (Douglas Fenner)

Tue Apr 4 02:56:05 UTC 2023

I completely agree with Austin.

    I would add one more item to the list of things that have made
development possible (you are very correct about the things you list).  And
that is resources.  Would Saudi Arabia be wealthy without oil???  Are most
atoll countries rich???   Is it their fault if their land is so tiny and
has no resources???  Take a look at pictures online of atolls.  TINY land
area, nothing but sand a few feet above high tide line at the most.  NO
running surface water to drink, NONE.  Only water down in the sand, partly
contaminated with salt or other things.  (yuk!) No soil in the sand to grow
things with.  People in a place like that have to be clever to even
survive.  The Australian outback??  You like to drink water??  People in
the Australian outback who don't know where water is will have a very short
life span, as some of the early white explorers found out the hard way.
        Resources aren't the only thing that helps development, but they
can make a huge difference.  The book "Guns, Germs, and Steel" by Jarad
Diamond makes a detailed case that development happened largely in places
where there were more plants and animals that people were able to
domesticate.  Great book, hard to put down.  Cheers, Doug

On Mon, Apr 3, 2023 at 10:54 AM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Thanks David,
>
> Your article and the work you have done on identifying the drivers of
> extinction and of climate change is exceedingly important.  Clearly, the
> majority of biodiversity on the planet, including coral reefs, are not
> going to survive another century and into the future unless a big
> correction occurs.  The global economy must be reinvented, and must include
> equity, resulting in the eventual elimination of extremes of wealth and
> poverty, ending gross overconsumption by the rich nations and the desperate
> measures by the masses of poor, who hunt and fish, and gather firewood, and
> live increasingly miserable lives, watching their children suffer.... and
> who increasingly see emigration as the only way to better lives.
>
> The system we have inherited- that we inevitably participate in and burden
> the planet with, continues to drive destruction via a cancerous model of
> growth. The system has resulted in opulent wealth for rich nations and
> extreme poverty for others.  We need to pause and examine how we got here.
> The rich nations have not gained their preeminence and vast wealth by sweat
> and innovation alone, rather this underlying prosperity is based on massive
> land theft, genocide, slavery, and colonialism perpetrated by past
> generations.  Sadly, the present system carries forward an inequitable
> economy and continues to victimize formerly oppressed nations and peoples,
> and the materialistic, cancerous (growth without function-based) model that
> excludes them, drives destruction of entire ecosystems and ultimately the
> planet.
>
> Nothing short of an equitable global economy and world peace can establish
> the required order.  Pease is essential to provide the required resources
> needed for positive transformation and global stability and to fund the
> restorative healing process and the rewilding of nature.  I see world peace
> and planetary disarmament as much a requirement to save the planet, its
> species, and its peoples as are carbon reductions.  But presently, the
> situation seems hopeless, as those in power want to maintain the status
> quo, and wars and conflicts seem to be more abundant than ever.  However in
> spite of this, I believe that world peace and a transformation of the
> global order is not only possible, but that it is inevitable.  It will be
> achieved either as a series of agreements and acts of consultative will, or
> as the result of unimaginable horrors- the total failure of the present
> system, and we seem pretty close to the latter right now!   Either way, I
> continue to have hope for coral reefs.
>
> One Planet, One People, One Ocean, One Atmosphere!
>
> Austin
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
> http:/www.
> <
> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
> >
> teiteifiji.org
> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> <
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >
>
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>
> 1985 document outlying the process leading to the emergence of world peace:
>
> https://www.bahai.org/documents/the-universal-house-of-justice/promise-world-peace
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 2:34 AM David Obura via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Dear Listers,
> >
> > happy new year - I think I’ve missed most of this year already somehow,
> > and coincidentally dropped in on this daily digest. Clearly also missed a
> > reference to the dreaded African Dust … oh my favourite topic on
> > coral-list!!
> >
> > But I see there’s been a discussion on global population (and sorry if
> I’m
> > going over old ground) … I’ve gone through a big swing  on these issues
> > with the last 3 years of working on planetary boundaries with the Earth
> > Commission, with seeing the clear evidence of what is driving exceedance
> of
> > those boundaries … and its clearly consumption levels (yes yes,
> multiplied
> > by population, but one is a bigger factor than the other).
> >
> > Now both population and consumption are touchy issues with protagonists
> > for or against the other as the primary driver … but as some have pointed
> > out consumption levels can change in a matter of years/decades (it ‘just’
> > needs value change, easy, right?), while population levels could take
> > centuries - particularly to decline to below-threshold levels that many
> > espouse. But also … total global population will only rise a maximum 40%
> > more than today, whereas economy and consumption levels could grow by
> > factors of 2 to 5, even 10 as some desire - so which is the FAR bigger
> > problem assuming business as usual values continue? Consumption by the
> top
> > 30, 10, 5 and 1% will destroy much more before population gets anywhere
> > near its peak.
> >
> > I had thought to share these papers earlier reflecting my thoughts on
> > these issues around the Global Biodiviersity Framework negotiated in
> > December 2022, which I tracked closely, and what I see as an intensely
> > frustrating focus of conservation circles (including ours) just on
> > conservation/restoration actions, and not on the clear drivers of
> decline -
> > overconsumption by wealthy economies, and wealthy people in poor
> economies
> > (not in any way definitive, but my musings).
> >
> > • https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(22)00589-9
> > • https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1gcJ19C%7EIu08zW - free link but just
> > till 8 April, I new I should have shared earlier!!
> >
> > So definitely in agreement with Austen here on the source and solutions
> to
> > these problems - but no-one with a lot of consumption is willing to admit
> > they should consume 50% less AND provide space for low-consumers to
> > increase their consumption levels to equity/parity. I fully agree
> > over-populatoin locally is a terrible problem for environments and
> > ecologies - but at global scales, "it’s the economy sweetie”
> (paraphrased!!
> > ;-))
> >
> > These will be the defining research and sustainability topics of the
> > coming decade, and it would be great to see our community pivot to
> address
> > the DRIVERS of problems and deep, rather than tinkering solutions.
> >
> > best to all!
> >
> > David
> >
> > David Obura PhD, MBS
> > CORDIO East Africa, #9 Kibaki Flats, Kenyatta Beach, Bamburi Beach,
> > P.O.BOX 10135 Mombasa 80101, Kenya
> > Email: dobura at cordioea.net  --  davidobura at gmail.com
> > Websites: www.cordioea.net  --   www.wiofutures.net  --
> > www.coralspecialistgroup.org
> > Mobile: +254-715 067417; skype dobura; Twitter @dobura
> > On 3 Apr 2023 at 16:20 +0300, coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov, wrote:
> > >
> > > On Mon, Mar 27, 2023 at 1:22 PM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > Good thoughts Alina and Doug,
> > > > >
> > > > > Alina, one thing to consider is that most of what you eat there in
> > > > > Wilmington NC is imported- if the definition is across state lines-
> > and
> > > > > much comes from thousands of miles away.
> > > > > However, the peoples of Melanesia that I have described earlier,
> are
> > the
> > > > > most food secure and self-sufficient people I have ever
> encountered,
> > with
> > > > > very low consumption of imported foods, less than 10% of their
> diet.
> > > > They
> > > > > eat what they grow or catch. No matter what happens to the global
> > > > economy,
> > > > > they will be minimally impacted, but climate change has them in its
> > > > > sights. The over-consumption and carbon intensive lifestyles of the
> > rich
> > > > > nations threaten their long term existence.
> > > > >
> > > > > The global economy favors the USA and rich nations, as they can
> > create
> > > > > trillions of dollars out of thin air, while poor nations have to
> > work and
> > > > > sweat for every devalued dollar they earn. The average daily wage
> in
> > the
> > > > > tourism industry here in Fiji is 15 USD per day- for those who can
> > find
> > > > > jobs, and with only a small raise in 20+ years, the purchasing
> power
> > of a
> > > > > week's take home pay is less than half what it was 20 years ago.
> The
> > > > > university marine studies graduates who I have trained in coral
> > > > adaptation
> > > > > work take jobs as resort marine biologists for a mere 5K USD per
> > annum.
> > > > > The unjust global economic order is the driver of instability and
> > > > > emigration. The developed world has all the advantages, plus is
> > largely
> > > > > responsible for climate change.
> > > > >
> > > > > The populations have not increased greatly in the rural areas, and
> as
> > > > Doug
> > > > > mentions, many have gone way down due to urban drift and
> emigration.
> > As
> > > > > far as overfishing is concerned, subsistence fishing is not at
> > > > overfishing
> > > > > levels, but adding commercial fishing to this in order to earn
> money
> > for
> > > > > essentials tips it over. It is especially easy to overfish the
> > > > > invertebrates, the clams and sea cucumbers and lobsters, as they do
> > not
> > > > run
> > > > > and hide from the fishers, but the reef fish continue to be
> > sufficient
> > > > for
> > > > > community needs in most places, especially where community tabu
> areas
> > > > MPAs
> > > > > continue to be respected, and where the people are too poor for the
> > nylon
> > > > > fishing nets. The solution within reach of the islanders is not
> birth
> > > > > control, but rather training in alternate economic activities as
> > well as
> > > > > restoring customary management of marine resources, which our
> > > > organization
> > > > > is focused on. There is a new stirring among the chiefs to
> > re-establish
> > > > > permanent no-take areas that a hundred years back were scattered
> > around
> > > > > Fiji: the sacred reefs. The community based Tabu areas that we
> first
> > > > > helped establish in 2000, tend to be opened every few years, and so
> > they
> > > > > are of limited effectiveness especially for slow to recover
> > invertebrate
> > > > > species.
> > > > >
> > > > > Yes the planet is diverse, but for the vast South Pacific region,
> it
> > is a
> > > > > lack of economic alternatives to fishing, plus climate injustice
> > that are
> > > > > driving the degradation of coral reefs, not overpopulation. The
> > > > uninhabited
> > > > > and un-fished islands have lost most of their corals due to mass
> > > > bleaching
> > > > > and no other factor.
> > > > >
> > > > > One Planet, One People, One Atmosphere, One Ocean.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > >
> > > > > Austin
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> > > > > Corals for Conservation
> > > > > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> > _______________________________________________
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