[Coral-List] New paper projecting coral species richness under climate change

[Elena Couce]

Dear all,

I am really excited to share our new research paper which just came out
last week on Global Change Biology. We analyse habitat suitability for over
650 coral species and project changes until the end of the century, in
order to explore species richness of future coral reef ecosystems

Title:
Paris Agreement could prevent regional mass extinctions of coral species

Abstract:
Coral reef ecosystems are expected to undergo significant declines over the
coming decades as oceans become warmer and more acidic. We investigate the
environmental tolerances of over 650 Scleractinian coral species based on
the conditions found within their present-day ranges and in areas where
they are currently absent but could potentially reach via larval dispersal.
These “environmental envelopes” and connectivity constraints are then used
to develop global forecasts for potential coral species richness under two
emission scenarios, representing the Paris Agreement target (“SSP1-2.6”)
and high levels of emissions (“SSP5-8.5”). Although we do not directly
predict coral mortality or adaptation, the projected changes to
environmental suitability suggest considerable declines in coral species
richness for the majority of the world's tropical coral reefs, with a net
loss in average local richness of 73% (Paris Agreement) to 91% (High
Emissions) by 2080–2090 and particularly large declines across sites in the
Great Barrier Reef, Coral Sea, Western Indian Ocean, and Caribbean.
However, at the regional scale, we find that environmental suitability for
the majority of coral species can be largely maintained under the Paris
Agreement target, with 0%–30% potential net species lost in most regions
(increasing to 50% for the Great Barrier Reef) as opposed to 80%–90% losses
under High Emissions. Projections for subtropical areas suggest that range
expansion will give rise to coral reefs with low species richness
(typically 10–20 coral species per region) and will not meaningfully offset
declines in the tropics. This work represents the first global projection
of coral species richness under oceanic warming and acidification. Our
results highlight the critical importance of mitigating climate change to
avoid potentially massive extinctions of coral species.

The article is open-access and can be found at:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16690

Thanks,
Elena