[Coral-List] Scientists detect sign that a crucial ocean current is near collapse

[Austin Bowden-Kerby]

Thanks Vassil.

CNN also has the story, and it is a more accessible site:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/25/world/gulf-stream-atlantic-current-collapse-climate-scn-intl/index.html
The paper is in Nature, and is available open access here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

The CNN article says that the collapse is possible as early as 2025,
but I think that is a mis-intrepretaiton of the 95% confidence limits
(mid century is given as between 2025–2095 as the 95% confidence
range.   "These results are under the assumption that the model is
approximately correct, and we, of course, cannot rule out
that other mechanisms are at play, and thus, the uncertainty is
larger.  However, we have reduced the analysis to have as few and
sound assumptions as possible, and given the importance of the AMOC
for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators
of an imminent collapse."

Unfortunately some clear indicators of an early collapse may have
occurred in recent months, after this paper was in its final form.  In
March, the mean global ocean temperature bumped up suddenly, with the
Atlantic especially off scale and this thermal anomaly is holding.
The atmospheric temperature spiked globally in June, and the Antarctic
ice is not reforming properly either, indicating that the freezing
process which results in the formation and sinking of deep bottom
water has slowed.  https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Waring: do not open this page if you are faint of heart- the
climatologists are shaking in their boots and scratching their heads!

While this planetary thermal spike is being blamed on a super El Nino
by some, I do not think this is the case, as I have been following the
NOAA Coral Reef Watch site, and while the former predictions looked
really scary, indeed indicating a super El Nino, the predictions have
been downgraded in the more recent predictive maps, so what is going
on?  https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/weekly_60.php

My heart goes out to those in Florida and the Caribbean, where the
thermal spike, from whatever cause, is causing horrors we did not
expect for at least a decade.

Vinaka,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands

https://www.corals4conservation.org
Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
strategies:  https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change
adaptation strategies:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/

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On Thu, Jul 27, 2023 at 5:24 AM Vassil Zlatarski via Coral-List
<coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>  A new analysis suggests climate change could shut down the circulation of
> Atlantic Ocean currents by 2050. But outside researchers say more data is
> needed.
>
> https://apple.news/Aw8NY39toStqdBSgGfXOjfw
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