[Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest recorded sea surface temperature

Sat Jul 29 00:26:44 UTC 2023

        The reports say that 100% of the corals at Sombrero Reef in the
Florida Keys have died of bleaching from the hot water.  In the past, some
of the worst mass bleaching events have killed up to 90% of the corals at
various locations, but I don't remember any reports of 100% of some
reef killed.  Have any killed 100% before?  Two species of fire coral in
the Eastern Pacific were driven to regional extinction by mass coral
bleaching events in the past (Glynn).  One coral at Chagos (*Diploastrea
heliopora*) was driven to local extinction in the Chagos archipelago by
mass coral bleaching and another coral (*Ctenella chagius*) was driven very
near to global extinction (Sheppard et al).  Pillar coral in the western
Atlantic is teetering on the brink of global extinction, mostly from
disease, but could bleaching push it over the edge?  El Nino is currently
just getting started.  By the time it gets going closer to full blast, it
will be the southern hemisphere's turn to have summer, and it could be
worse than what is happening now in Florida, couldn't it???
       So, is this the beginning of the end of coral reefs as we know them,
which will be replaced by algae gardens with fewer fish and many other
organisms missing??  Will reefs with 100% coral death from high
temperatures become the rule instead of the exception?  How many corals
will go functionally extinct or even globally extinct?  How would we
recover from that??
       I notice reports that some restoration projects are quickly moving
the corals in their gardens into aquaria that can be kept below bleaching
temperatures.  That's smart.  That suggests that project people are not
confident that their corals would survive these current conditions.  So all
this is going to happen more frequently in the future, and the temperatures
will get even higher, because of global warming, won't it??  I'm reminded
of some institutions in temperate climates that have palm trees in large
pots.  They have a device that lets them wheel them inside buildings when
the temperatures get too cold for them.  Then move them back out when it
warms up.  Are we going to move nursery corals indoors in every heat wave,
then back out after?  That's better than letting them cook to death.  Maybe
we could move the natural corals on the reefs indoors too.  No, there are
too many of them, not possible, plus you'd have to break every one off the
reef, that would take way too long.  Not possible.
       I think all this means that Austin was exactly right, move as many
resilient corals as you can into water that won't get so hot, that would
greatly increase their survival chances.  That is, if you have any such
place.
       So if heat waves like this kill near 100% of the natural corals many
places, over and over again, can restoration recover the natural reefs as
fast as global warming can kill them??  Hundreds of thousands of square
miles of coral reef in the world?  And those corals that are planted out to
restore reefs, in the next heat wave get killed, then the corals in the
aquaria are put out into nurseries and when large enough are planted on the
reef.  And then another heat wave kills them and the whole thing happens
all over again, over and over again.  Is all that effort and expense worth
it?  Do you see some other future for natural reefs??  I don't, much as I
would love to.  Coral restoration may become like the ancient Greek legend
of Sysiphus, who has to push a large rock up a mountain, and then it rolls
down, and he has to do it again for eternity.
       And I wonder about those "super corals" that are being selected for
the ability to withstand higher than normal temperatures.  Are they able to
survive in the current temperatures that Florida has???  I now envision a
lengthy race between increasing water temperatures on reefs in heat waves,
and efforts to breed ever greater ability to withstand heat, trying to
breed coral tolerance faster than the temperatures of heat waves increase.
Who is going to win that race?  Do we want to bet the survival of coral
reefs on the outcome?  (do we have any choice???)
        One scientist in one of the stories said that we need to prepare
for the future.  Yes.  And just how are we going to do that??  Take a hand
fan out over a reef and sit in a boat waving the fan over the water to cool
it?  Snorkel on the surface over the coral to shade them?  There are much
better ways to cool reefs, like piping up cold, deep water.  I don't know
anyone who is trying that.  Wouldn't be a trivial thing to try to
do, certainly would be impossible for more than just tiny patches of high
value reef.  Austin says that shades can be put over coral nurseries to
shade them and he is surely right and it is a good idea.  But what about
the natural corals, the hundreds of thousands of square kilometers and
miles of reefs?  Can we shade or cool them?  No way currently I know of.
        Bottom line, I don't see a feasible way of saving corals short of
quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or very close to it.
And we, as a species, are a LONG way from doing that.  We haven't even
BEGUN to slow the rate of increase in CO2 in the atmosphere yet.
        And it looks like we don't have any time left, the coral reef
armageddon appears to have begun.  Kiss your favorite reef goodbye??

Cheers, Doug

On Tue, Jul 25, 2023 at 7:17 PM Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hottest sea surface temperature recorded anywhere in the world, ever.
> 101.1F
>
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-just-had-the-hottest-recorded-ocean-temperature-heres-what-that-means-for-the-environment-215110797.html
>
> 100% coral mortality at Sombrero Reef in the Keys.  Also most of the
> corals in the Looe Key nursery have died.
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/hot-tub-water-temperatures-off-183657140.html
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/water-tip-florida-hits-hot-000913172.html
>
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-ocean-temperatures-rise-above-213944171.html
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/extreme-heat-wipes-coral-reef-195403237.html
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/101-1-degrees-water-temperatures-214600885.html
>
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/ocean-temperatures-around-south-florida-223041666.html
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-lab-races-save-203112888.html
>
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-everglades-water-temperatures-reach-170400166.html
>
> Mass coral bleaching predicted:
>
>
> https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/hot-florida-sea-surface-temperatures-coral-bleaching-event
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
> --
> Douglas Fenner
> Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> NOAA Fisheries Service
> Pacific Islands Regional Office
> Honolulu
> and:
> Coral Reef Consulting
> PO Box 997390
> Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
>
> One recent study estimates over 61,000 people died from heat during
> Europe's record-breaking summer last year.
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-breaking-heat-bakes-us-014459083.html
>
> 1 million Florida buildings will be overrun by sea-level rise, new study
> shows, at a cost of $261-624 BILLION
>
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-million-florida-buildings-overrun-091203340.html
>
> Scientists size up human predatory footprint
> Humans are the ultimate predators, trapping, hunting, or otherwise
> exploiting 15,000 species of vertebrates—300 times more species than
> jaguars and 113 times more than great white sharks.
>
> https://www.science.org/content/article/news-glance-muscular-dystrophy-therapy-lab-grown-chicken-and-humans-toll-wildlife
>
>