[Coral-List] (Coral-List) The Spread of SCTLD

[Steve Mussman]

Dear Nohora,

Congratulations on your recent ICRS award and Happy World Reef Day.

“proposing that vessels that have been to a SCTLD-affected area within the last five ports, to not discharge ballast water within State Waters and to also send prior notification of arrival with information about the vessel’s biofouling prevention practices, so a risk assessment may be conducted.”

That would be like asking divers to simply sign a waiver in effect promising to self-regulate by agreeing not to touch the corals and verifying their mastery of buoyancy control skills.

Not to belabor the point, but reliance on scientific correlation does not explain why the diver-disease correlation, above all others, remains a central point of emphasis when it seems so obvious that there are a number of other nefarious variables involved. Beyond that, I still feel like we are missing out on yet another opportunity to frame the issue properly through clear, effective messaging.

Regards,

Steve

On 5/31/23, 6:31 PM, International Coral Reef Observatory <icrobservatory at gmail.com> wrote:

Dear All,

Perhaps, when this message reaches you, it is already June, the first #WorldReefDay. So I invite you to celebrate with us that we still have coral reefs to talk about them!!

In Hawaii, DAR was also requiring a precautionary principle that applied to restrict ships coming from the Caribbean Sea. DLNR asked the State to take decisive action to reduce the risk of SCTLD entering Hawaii waters. DAR said they were “proposing that vessels that have been to a SCTLD-affected area within the last five ports, to not discharge ballast water within State Waters and to also send prior notification of arrival with information about the vessel’s biofouling prevention practices, so a risk assessment may be conducted.”

https://www-khon2-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.khon2.com/local-news/insidious-new-disease-is-killing-coral-at-a-rapid-pace/amp/

Steve, we understand your concern about divers restrictions. But we can not deny that to avoid contagion in a disease, the first scientific logical approach is to avoid any direct contact to the sick individual (s). Most of the coral listers have had microbiological classes and experimented on how to cultivate bacteria in vitro: taking small samples and putting them in a nurturing environment. So that would be a scientific fact that direct contact serves to disperse the cause agent of a disease. There is already scientific evidence that evaluated consistent bacteria associated with SCTLD across disease zones (vulnerable, endemic, and epidemic), in corals, seawater and sediment, which may be sources of SCTLD transmission. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43705-023-00220-0 And the Chemical and genomic characterization of a potential probiotic treatment for stony coral tissue loss disease

https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-023-04590-y

When studying real case studies to evaluate management effectiveness or to identify potential causation of negative impacts, social scientists aim to take into account most of the possible variables that may cause an impact on coral reefs. We can not wait to develop experiments and models to understand the whole process (when environmentalists try to stop it). It is urgent to analyze the real time changes in human activities that may help to understand the negative impact that potentially has triggered or assisted the coral reef degradation. Thus, correlation in social sciences is a statistical measure (expressed as a number) describing the size and direction of a relationship between two or more variables. Therefore, when one variable increases as the other variable increases or one variable decreases while the other decreases can be an example of what is a social (Human Activities occurring in the field) scientific correlation. According to the amount of data, it can be qualitatively or quantitatively analyzed. Researchers use correlations to see if a relationship between two or more variables exists. Of course, the variables themselves are not under the control of the researchers!!

Nohora Galvis

ICRS World Reef Award Winner

ICRO International Coral Reef Observatory

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Instagram / Twitter/ YouTube ICR,_Observatory

El mié, 31 may 2023 a las 16:20, Steve Mussman via Coral-List (<coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)>) escribió:

“In Steve's defense, I would point out that a correlation between

the frequency of diving in an area and the amount of coral disease is just

that, a correlation, and we know that correlation does not prove

causation. Places that have huge amounts of diving also are highly likely

to have other major damaging effects of development and human population,

such as sewage discharges, etc,”

Hi Doug,

Apart from it not being established as a scientific fact, at least part of my resistance to the idea of divers being singled out with restrictions because they are suspected of being potential vectors of coral disease is the message (or misconception) that publicly disseminating such an edict conveys. There is something inadequate about issuing a statement proclaiming that there is an outbreak of a coral disease that threatens our coral reefs and then announcing that the primary action we have chosen to take in response is . . . to place restrictions on divers. Period. With no other remedial actions or contributing factors advanced.

I agree with you, there should at least be a disclaimer that makes it clear that correlation does not prove causation. And how about advancing a more nuanced, comprehensive response that at least attempts to frame the outbreak of coral diseases in broader terms? Something along the lines of : “Coral disease outbreaks are now recognized as a significant factors in the accelerating degradation of coral reefs, and it is commonly accepted that a variety of human-related activities have altered environmental conditions, potentially impairing coral resistance to microbial infections or increasing pathogen virulence.” This could be followed by a more complete list of contributing factors reflecting whatever stressors are negatively impacting local coral reefs. What do you think? Am I asking too much?

Regards,

Steve

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