[Coral-List] Talk of a "Blue Economy" Indicates Denial of the Unfolding Mass Extinction Level Marine Heat Event

Fri Mar 29 23:22:35 UTC 2024

Contessa, great post, I agree.
     I would like to add that we need to remember as well that corals CAN
acclimate during their lives or adapt by evolving over generations to SOME
degree.  The best estimates seem to be that if we can reduce
emissions enough, they or at least some, may be able to, as species,
survive and repopulate to some extent.  It is important to stress that WE
HAVE NOT COMPLETELY LOST YET!!!  There is still hope, and we need to do ALL
we can to save corals, it still VERY MUCH hangs in the balance depending on
what humans do.  As far as I know, all agree that corals will be better if
we reduce emissions and reduce other impacts on corals.
      I'd add that not all threats are equal, some are far greater than
others, the greatest are often thought to be global warming as the greatest
and nutrients, sedimentation, overfishing and disease may be the second
tier, and introduced species as a threat is increasing rapidly.  Also, our
ability to counter each threat, as individuals and the human species as a
whole, differs greatly from one threat to the next and from one place to
another.  Triage needs to be done based on the severity of the threat AND
what good we can realistically do for each.  Trying to sort through that
complexity is a task indeed, but we need to push any opportunity to reduce
any threats we can.
       That's my thought, subject to change as we learn more.   Cheers, Doug

On Fri, Mar 29, 2024 at 1:58 AM Contessa Ricci <contessaricci at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Dear coral listers,
>
> To repeat on this thread, complex problems inherently require complex
> solutions.
> Douglas Fenner We are in agreement there. No single piece of the puzzle is
> going to do enough heavy lifting to make a difference. We need as many
> solutions as we can juggle, and we need to make sure we are not working
> against each other, no matter where the researcher comes from or operates
> out of (yes, I am condemning the overwhelming importance given to the of
> voice of Western scientists over non-Western scientists in the coral reef
> research field)
>
> I do meet to push back a little more against the unnecessarily defeatist
> attitude from Austin Bowden-Kerby. Yes, climate change is coming for us
> all. Yes, it’s a dire time for corals and coral reefs. But no, on the
> ground efforts to control pollution and damage are not meaningless. And to
> expand a little on what Nohora Galvis was pointing to, there are plenty of
> strategies that BOTH help control pollution/support conservation AS WELL AS
> work to reduce carbon emissions.
>
> Further, I think the vast majority of us understand pretty well how big a
> problem the projected numbers for global temperatures is, and how imminent
> it is. However, the typical coral researcher is not going to be very
> effective or helpful in this because we are trained in hard sciences, not
> policy, legislation, or international affairs. In fact, our most helpful
> skill on the organizing front, science communication, is often greatly
> unused because most of our time and energy is dedicated to doing studies
> and writing about them for other scientists (AKA, not the people doing the
> hard work to make the real changes, because our salaries come from doing
> the studies and writing about them for each other). Given this and to also
> repeat my opinion here, the coral research field needs to focus more on
> supporting those organizations or initiatives that offer the real, complex
> solutions that are going to help us.
>
> To be clear, I am not saying that hoarding genetic diversity will not be
> helpful- we see a very important example on how effective this tool can be
> with the black-footed ferret (which is an amazing success story). The
> necessary parts of that success, however, were having existing populations
> to reintroduce the genetic diversity back into, a conducive habitat for
> life, and proper stewardship after the fact.
>
> Thank you,
> Contessa
>
> On Fri, Mar 29, 2024 at 5:23 AM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> I agree that all sources of coral degradation need to be stopped.  But not
>> all sources of degradation are equal.  We have to do "triage" in which we
>> evaluate different sources of degradation, how big a threat they are, and
>> how feasible the solutions are.  A complex task.  Austin's point is that
>> if
>> we don't do something about global warming fueled bleaching, we will lose
>> almost all coral on all coral reefs.  If we don't address bleaching
>> mortality, we will lose the patient, which is the world's coral reefs.
>>       That doesn't mean doing nothing about other threats, quite the
>> contrary.  If there is a local threat which can be successfully addressed,
>> do it!!  I'm all for it!  We're all terribly frustrated that there is so
>> little we can do that is effective at reducing threats, global and local.
>> We're all desperate.  I think Austin's suggestion is a good one.  Sure
>> looks to me like he's right we are now at 2044 instead of 2024 for sea
>> surface temperature and bleaching.
>>         We need to stop the causes of the damage to coral, but greenhouse
>> gas emissions are like a giant container ship that has 10,000 containers
>> on
>> it heading straight for what holds the bridge up.  It can't be stopped
>> quickly.  But we darn well better do something, and fast.  And Austin's
>> suggestion is something that can be done some places.
>>
>> Cheers, Doug
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 28, 2024 at 12:29 PM International Coral Reef Observatory via
>> Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>
>> > Dear Austin,
>> >
>> > Of course we are in the same boat. We need to talk about all of this.
>> What
>> > is the point of silencing colleagues who care about the blue economy?
>> ...
>> > small
>> > problems...It's no big deal. ... ?
>> >
>> > Some critics call "Queen Drama" the ones who point out climate change
>> > or/and the ones who express worries about cumulative effects. That is
>> why
>> > the recommendation to be more coherent, cautious with the promises, and
>> > leading by example not to use fuel (walk and bike), not to have many
>> > children, or produce gas emissions.
>> >
>> > The Blue Economy developers want to hear that everything is ok.
>> Therefore
>> > they pay to the ones who give them a fake solution. In fact, some of the
>> > developers do not even need live coral reefs. For instance, the
>> thousands
>> > of tourists in each* cruise (*fuel sources: Bunker Fuel, (HFO), marine
>> > diesel oil, (MDO); or liquefied natural gas (LNG)*)* do not dive, only
>> go
>> > to the beach or visit the large ports. But they do not know or they do
>> not
>> > want to think about hurricanes (Climate Change) coming to the coast
>> > destroying coral reefs and infrastructure.
>> > https://www.transportenvironment.org/challenges/ships/cruise-ships/
>> >
>> > All causes of degradation should be stopped. There is not a reason why
>> to
>> > disorient managers from the conservation objectives. They need to avoid
>> > further local and global pollution and destruction of coral reefs. With
>> the
>> > reality of higher temperatures the corals will not stand any other
>> stress.
>> > Therefore the rationale about guiding a Blue Economy to avoid more
>> threats
>> > to resilience.
>> >
>> > Good look with your strategies, we certainly need successful sound
>> > environmentally friendly practices.
>> >
>> > Nohora Galvis
>> > Director
>> > International Coral Reef Observatory
>> > Facebook ICRObservatory
>> > Twitter / Instagram /Youtube ICR_Observatory
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > El sáb, 23 mar 2024 a las 21:36, Austin Bowden-Kerby (<
>> > abowdenkerby at gmail.com>) escribió:
>> >
>> > > Dear friends,
>> > >
>> > > I don't think that all of us are on the same page as far as the new
>> > > thermal stress levels and the reality of what has just happened.
>> > > Addressing water pollution and overfishing and talking of a Blue
>> Economy
>> > > is not going to fix this!  The belief that coral reefs will survive
>> if we
>> > > simply fix the chronic problems of pollution and overfishing still
>> > > persists, but it does not face our new reality.  A massive wreck has
>> > > occurred: we can treat the broken arm later, after we control the
>> > bleeding
>> > > from this gushing wound. Even then, the patient may not survive.
>> > >
>> > > As far as temperature, it is time to realize that we are living in
>> 2044,
>> > > not 2024!  As far as temperature, everything changed in 2023.  And
>> what
>> > is
>> > > so concerning is that no one can explain why, my own hypothesis is
>> that
>> > > AMOC collapse has begun.  The world was deceived at COP28 when 1.5C
>> was
>> > > still the mantra, when our planet had already clearly surpassed the
>> 1.5
>> > > target, and all the climate scientists knew it.  The mean temperature
>> for
>> > > 2023 is now calculated to have been 1.54 and for 2024 it is now
>> averaging
>> > > 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, and we even surpassed 2.0C several
>> > times
>> > > this year.  We are clearly heading to 2.0C within a few years.  This
>> > spells
>> > > DEATH to all coral reefs everywhere.
>> > >
>> > > For those who still have some living coral reefs, do you realize what
>> > > going way above 1.5C means?  It means that we can now expect bleaching
>> > > every summer everywhere and on every reef from this point out!
>> > >
>> > > Is any form of "Blue Economy" possible when 90-100% of the corals are
>> > > dead?  Do we continue to dive on dead reefs and play on eroding
>> beaches?
>> > >  IPCC and others have clearly predicted that we would experience a
>> 70-98%
>> > > loss of corals at 1.5C, and we are considerably above that now.
>> 99-100%
>> > of
>> > > reefs are predicted to be gone at 2.0C, and we are nearly there.
>> > >
>> > > Pearce-Kelly et al. 2024, which I found in the link kindly provided by
>> > > Martin at Reefscapers: https://reefscapers.com/links-2024/ quotes the
>> > > below:
>> > >
>> > > 1.5°C - “...coral reefs… will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to
>> > > marine heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5°C and are at high
>> risk
>> > > this century even in <1.5°C scenarios that include periods of
>> temperature
>> > > overshoot beyond 1.5°C (high confidence).” (IPCC 2022). Projections
>> > predict
>> > > 70-90% coral loss at 1.5°C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018; IPBS 2019;
>> Souter
>> > et
>> > > al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022), whereas finer scale modelling
>> > > projects a 95-98% loss (Kalmus et al (2022) and suggest  99% loss
>> Dixon
>> > et
>> > > al 2022).
>> > > 2.0°C -: “literature since AR5 has provided a closer focus on the
>> > > comparative levels of risk to coral reefs at 1.5°C versus 2°C of
>> global
>> > > warming … reaching 2°C will increase the frequency of mass coral
>> > bleaching
>> > > and mortality to a point at which it will result in the total loss of
>> > coral
>> > > reefs from the world’s tropical and subtropical regions.” (IPCC 2018).
>> > > Predictions show 99% coral loss at 2.0C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018;
>> IPBS
>> > > 2019; Souter et al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022). Finer scale
>> > modelling
>> > > projects 100% loss at 2.0°C. (Dixon et al 2022; Kalmus et al 2022).
>> > >
>> > > Based on a consensus quoted above, there is now a very high
>> probability
>> > > that most or even all of your corals will be gone within a few years.
>> > >  Time has run out.  If we do nor realize the facts and act, we are in
>> > real
>> > > danger of losing everything.
>> > >
>> > > The question we might ask ourselves now is this:  What can we do
>> urgently
>> > > to prevent the mass die-off of our corals?   Do we bring them on
>> land- if
>> > > so, then what?   We are encouraging Reefs of Hope strategies, with
>> whole
>> > > coral colony translocation from hot nearshore reef areas to cooler
>> > offshore
>> > > reefs and from shallow reef areas prone to exposure at low tide to
>> deeper
>> > > and cooler areas, just moving corals a few kms locally, for reefs that
>> > have
>> > > strong thermal gradients this may be possible at scale.  The many
>> corals
>> > > left behind serve as the controls.  We encourage moving whole colonies
>> > and
>> > > maintaining the same N/S orientation, because that eliminates a major
>> > > source of UV stress.  Based on just what happened in the Caribbean, we
>> > > recommend nursery designs that can easily be shaded, should the heat
>> > become
>> > > more intense.
>> > >
>> > > This is not the time for fragmenting corals and for "restoration" as
>> > > once carried out, or for creating tree nurseries that can not be
>> shaded.
>> > > The goal now must be to secure as much genetic diversity as possible
>> in
>> > > preparation for the intense marine heat waves that will be hitting our
>> > > reefs in the coming months and years.  We must do our best to keep the
>> > > corals alive and in the ocean!
>> > > https://oceandecade.org/actions/reefs-of-hope/
>> > >
>> > > I hope this matter can become the primary focus of the Reef Futures
>> > > meeting in Mexico next December.  Will this meeting follow on another
>> > mass
>> > > bleaching event in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans?  We need
>> to
>> > be
>> > > truthful if we want the corals to survive, and we need to develop
>> > > strategies to help each other along.
>> > >
>> > > Regards to all,
>> > >
>> > > Austin
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> > > Corals for Conservation
>> > > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > On Sun, Mar 24, 2024 at 10:15 AM Mbije Nsajigwa via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >> This is great.
>> > >>
>> > >> Mbije
>> > >>
>> > >> On Fri, 22 Mar 2024, 00:32 International Coral Reef Observatory via
>> > >> Coral-List, <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >>
>> > >> > Dear All,
>> > >> >
>> > >> > A new field of knowledge and practice for young coral reef
>> > researchers!!
>> > >> > This message is to contribute to the recent question on the list
>> about
>> > >> *How
>> > >> > do we prudently guide innovators, businesses, investors, decision
>> > >> makers,
>> > >> > governments, etc. to pursue a smart "Blue Economy"?*"  — one that
>> > makes
>> > >> > sense biologically, socially, and economically.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > We should have the coral reef conservation objectives clear,
>> updated
>> > >> > transdisciplinary research, and the proper economic valuation of
>> life
>> > >> > (Including Humans) in a healthy coral reef.  How much does it cost
>> to
>> > >> > create and keep life? Trillion dollars to value a coral reef area
>> will
>> > >> keep
>> > >> > the doctors (that support unsustainable development) away. Yes,
>> > because
>> > >> if
>> > >> > the developers know that it is not cheap to keep polluting and
>> > >> destroying
>> > >> > coral reefs and that there will be a governmental fine that they
>> can
>> > not
>> > >> > pay, and the stronger local communities will request politicians to
>> > act
>> > >> > according to law, then developers will look for other alternatives.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > The ICRS and ICRI should write the guidelines for code of conduct
>> and
>> > >> > ethics for scientists, governments and enterprises. Nowadays, it
>> is a
>> > >> > business to hire restoration practitioners for less than a million
>> of
>> > >> > dollars to justify a permissive EIA and allow any coral reef
>> > >> degradation.
>> > >> > Academia is getting funds also from that "Blue Economy". Well, the
>> > money
>> > >> > should be to save coral reefs, not helping the destruction
>> continue.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > Keeping that in mind, we all know that it is scientifically
>> correct to
>> > >> > avoid more pollution and direct destruction of coral reefs.
>> Therefore,
>> > >> we
>> > >> > should stop any unsustainable development that will produce
>> > >> > environmental impact to coral reefs.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > The Blue Economy should evolve as it is possible, with advanced
>> > >> technology,
>> > >> > activities on innovative alternatives that will not produce
>> pollution
>> > or
>> > >> > destruction of coral reefs. That is why we only should look for the
>> > >> > environmentally sound ones very far from coral reefs. It is not
>> more
>> > >> > acceptable that fake promises to save coral reefs with restoration
>> > >> projects
>> > >> > keep continuing the support the let us call instead of "Blue" "the
>> > Dirty
>> > >> > Economy" the one that 100% sure will continue with business as
>> usual
>> > >> > destroying the remainings of coral reefs, if scientists continue
>> being
>> > >> part
>> > >> > of the business biasing their knowledge by getting profit.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > Maritime industries should have alternatives in other places far
>> from
>> > >> coral
>> > >> > reefs and with the best technologies that will not pollute water,
>> eco
>> > >> > friendly tourism. It is not possible to encourage massive tourism
>> in
>> > >> huge
>> > >> > vessels to navigate close to coral reefs, swage water going direct
>> to
>> > >> coral
>> > >> > reefs, and enlarge ports and channels close to coral reefs and the
>> > other
>> > >> > threats related to unsustainable development.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > The scientific community should be strong on this, supporting each
>> > other
>> > >> > with case studies that have shown the results of allowing the
>> > >> megaprojects
>> > >> > to keep growing on coral reef areas. Avoiding to only point out to
>> > >> Climate
>> > >> > Change (It is real and another effect of Pollution) to blame
>> > >> degradation of
>> > >> > coral reefs, when we all know for examples that a dynamite
>> explosion
>> > to
>> > >> > enlarge a channel will destroy corals in seconds, that sewage,
>> > >> fertilizers
>> > >> > and pesticides keep producing diseases and high macroalgae cover,
>> that
>> > >> the
>> > >> > operation of a cruise to navigate close to a coral reef and reach a
>> > >> nearby
>> > >> > port produce pollution to clean swimming pools and toilets,
>> turbidity
>> > >> and
>> > >> > sedimentation.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > It is time to think about high and low tech. High technologies, not
>> > >> only in
>> > >> > our labs waiting for the evolution of corals to survive all
>> sources of
>> > >> > pollution and destruction, we need to work with experts from other
>> > >> > disciplines, with technicians to provide energy alternatives, even
>> > >> closed
>> > >> > systems to avoid pollution direct to the seawater and air, and
>> other
>> > >> > virtual tourism on healthy coral reefs to allow natural recovery.
>> We
>> > as
>> > >> > humans need to evolve with environmentally friendly behaviors to a
>> new
>> > >> form
>> > >> > of life that is less destructive with nature perhaps going back to
>> LOW
>> > >> > TECH, walking and biking more. Otherwise intensive experiments of
>> > >> > restoration in the same area where the development is allowed will
>> not
>> > >> > leave any success surpassing the carrying capacity of coral reefs
>> > >> affecting
>> > >> > their potential resilience and serving as case studies for the
>> Science
>> > >> of
>> > >> > Loss in Biodiversity and Life.
>> > >> >
>> > >> > Nohora Galvis
>> > >> > International Coral Reef Observatory, ICRO
>> > >> > Former ICRS World Reef Award
>> > >> > UN DOALOS Expert on Coral Reef Cumulative effects
>> > >> > Facebook ICRObservatory
>> > >> > Twitter / Instagram / Youtube ICR_Observatory
>> > >> > _______________________________________________
>> > >> > Coral-List mailing list
>> > >> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> > >> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> > >> _______________________________________________
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>> > >
>> > >
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