[Coral-List] Chances of bleaching in the tropical eastern Pacific?

[Mark Eakin]

Yes, the forecasts call for a 50% chance of at least a mild El Nino  
by the end of the year.  However, it usually takes a pretty strong El  
Nino to cause significant bleaching in the eastern Pacific.   
Unfortunately, we know that there is a problem with our climatology  
in the regions around the 3 major Central American upwelling regions,  
including the Gulf of Panama.  We are working on a new product suite  
that will eliminate that problem, in part through the use of a new  
climatology.  In the meantime, you should ignore the anomalies that  
you see if the Gulf of Panama.  Our products are not valid for those  
3 upwelling regions.

Cheers,
Mark



On Sep 5, 2006, at 1:22 PM, Fernando A. Zapata wrote:

> Mark,
>
> Would you care to comment regarding possible bleaching conditions  
> in the
> tropical eastern Pacific (TEP)? Latest SST anomalies show signs of  
> an EL
> Niño warming (and forecasts give 50% chance of an El Niño by end of  
> year),
> the coral bleaching hotspots maps indicates that SST anomalies in  
> Panama
> Bight are at least similar to those in the Caribbean and degree- 
> heating
> weeks are accumulating (> 14) there as well. Looks like we should  
> keep our
> eyes open for coral bleaching in the TEP?
>
> Cheers,
>
> Fernando
>
> Fernando A. Zapata
> Departamento de Biologia
> Universidad del Valle
> Apartado Aereo 25360
> Cali, Colombia
>
> Tel. (+57-2) 321-2100 Ext. 2824
> Telefax. (+57-2) 339-3243
> Fax. (+57-2) 339-2440
> E-mail: fazapata at univalle.edu.co
>
> Grupo de Investigacion en Ecologia de Arrecifes Coralinos
> Coral Reef Ecology Research Group
> http://postgradobiologia.univalle.edu.co/Grupos/Arrecifes/General/ 
> general.ht
> ml
>
> -----Mensaje original-----
> De: coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> [mailto:coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov] En nombre de Mark  
> Eakin
> Enviado el: martes, 05 de septiembre de 2006 9:39
> Para: Coral Listserver
> Asunto: [Coral-List] Caribbean Remains slightly warm
>
> Temperatures in the Caribbean continue slightly above normal.
> Temperatures across the Caribbean and western North Atlantic remain
> approximately 0.5-1.0 degrees C above the maximum monthly mean.  All
> of our Atlantic index sites are at Bleaching Watch status except for
> Lee Stocking Island in the Bahamas.  Caribbean temperatures continue
> to be significantly lower than 2005 and just below the bleaching
> threshold.  Only a small area near the panhandle of Florida has
> accumulated Degree Heating Weeks.
>
> We are cautiously optimistic that new bleaching will not be a major
> issue in the Caribbean during 2006.
>
> Our 24 index sites around the globe can be found at:
> http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/CB_indices/
> coral_bleaching_indices.html
>
> Current HotSpot and Degree Heating Week charts, HDF data, and
> GoogleEarth products can be found at:
> http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.html
>
> Please reporting any bleaching events (or non-events) at
> http://www.reefbase.org/input/bleachingreport/index.asp
>
>
> Cheers,
> Mark
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
> --
> ------------------------
> C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
> Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
> Center for Satellite Applications and Research
> Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
> e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
> url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
>
> E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
> 1335 East West Hwy
> Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
> 301-713-2857 x109                   Fax: 301-713-3136
>
>
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>
>
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------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
------------------------
C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
1335 East West Hwy
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
301-713-2857 x109                   Fax: 301-713-3136