[Coral-List] NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted

Mark Eakin Mark.Eakin at noaa.gov
Tue May 22 23:25:25 EDT 2007

See more details along with graphics at: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/ 

13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted
May 22, 2007 — Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are  
projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season  
will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane  
era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us,  
NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their  
preparation plans.

"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13  
to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which  
three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or  
higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.,  
undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA  
administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named  
storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007  
hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal  
(the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased  
Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface  
temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when  
an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile  
environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms  
did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water  
and away from land.

"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña  
will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell,  
Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate  
Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that  
La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña  
develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the  
predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La  
Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions  
associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above- 
normal season."

Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm  
Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season  
ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above  
normal season."
"With expectations for an active season, it is critically important  
that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the  
Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane  
Center director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not  
when the storm is bearing down on you."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30,  
with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate  
Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August  
just prior to the historical peak of the season.

The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast  
product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998,  
this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at the  
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA  
Hurricane Research Division and the NOAA Hydrometeorological  
Prediction Center. The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane  
forecasting responsibilities for the Atlantic as well as the East  
Pacific basins. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National  
Hurricane Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center  
are three of the NOAA National Weather Service's nine NOAA National  
Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provides the United  
States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather  

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200  
years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of  
the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation  
of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the  
1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA  
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety  
through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related  
events and information service delivery for transportation, and by  
providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and  
marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation  
System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners,  
more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a  
global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it  
observes, predicts and protects.

Relevant Web Sites NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook  
(Technical Product)
NOAA 2007 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook
NOAA National Hurricane Center
NOAA Hurricanes Portal
Behind the Scenes: The North Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook

Media Contact: Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (301)  
763-8000 ext. 7163 or Greg Romano, NOAA National Weather Service,  
(301) 713-0622

C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
1335 East West Hwy
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
301-713-2857 x109                   Fax: 301-713-3136

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