[Coral-List] August NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Outlook for August-November 2008

[Mark Eakin]

  August NOAA Coral Reef Watch Bleaching Outlook for August-November  
2008

              The NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction system  
indicates that there will be some bleaching in the Caribbean later  
this year, but bleaching will probably not be severe.  Currently, the  
forecast system suggests that bleaching may be more severe in the  
Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles than was predicted last month.  
The potential for widespread bleaching in the Northwestern Hawaiian  
Islands has lessened.  Some bleaching remains likely around Papua-New  
Guinea, through the Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia, to Japan.

             In a normal year, the model will forecast no potential  
for bleaching.  When sea surface temperatures are forecast to exceed  
bleaching thresholds for a long enough period to cause bleaching, the  
outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may  
vary due to subsequent changes in climatic conditions or weather  
patterns.

Pacific Bleaching Outlook:
             Fortunately, the forecast for abnormally high  
temperatures has lessened in the North Pacific, so the potential for  
bleaching in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) is not as high  
as the system forecast in July.
             There is also a potential for some bleaching elsewhere in  
the North Pacific that may influence reefs from Papua-New Guinea,  
through the Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia, and up to Japan.   
Bleaching across this region is likely to be mild, similar to that  
expected in the Caribbean this year.  The reduced threat in the  
Ryukyus suggests that the current high temperatures will hopefully  
subside shortly.
             The model now calls for unusually high temperatures along  
the Pacific coast of Mexico.  There is a potential for severe  
bleaching around the Baja peninsula. However, we are not yet sure how  
well the model performs in a semi-enclosed water mass such as the Gulf  
of California.

  Caribbean Bleaching Outlook:
             The forecast system indicates that there is a potential  
for bleaching across the Caribbean basin in 2008, but it is not likely  
to be severe.  The potential for widespread bleaching has increased  
for the Windward Islands and perhaps along the coasts of Nicaragua and  
Colombia.

  For full details on our new forecast system and forecast graphics,  
see http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook/index.html

Cheers,
Mark

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C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

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