[Coral-List] Potential for High Thermal Stress in the Caribbean

[Mark Eakin]

A NOAA press release was issued yesterday and can be found at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090722_coralbleaching.html


On Jul 17, 2009, at 9:14 AM, Mark Eakin wrote:

> The full message with images can be found at:
>
> http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook/outlook_messages/bleachingoutlook_20090716_for_2009juloct.html
>
>
>
> The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook
> indicates that there is a significant potential for coral bleaching in
> the Caribbean in 2009, especially in the Lesser Antilles. Based on our
> current model, there is a potential for higher thermal stress than
> normal in 2009.
>
> Other areas of concern in 2009 are central Pacific including the
> equatorial Line Islands and Kiribati. Some thermal stress may also
> develop between the Northern Marianas Islands and Japan. An important
> caveat is that the model used for this outlook is not yet calling for
> El Niño development, whereas NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast
> System is now calling for development of an El Niño during 2009-10. If
> El Niño conditions continue to strengthen, this could increase the
> bleaching risk in the central to eastern Pacific and Caribbean.
> Remember that this guidance should be used as indicators potential
> general patterns rather than precise predictors of thermal stress.
>
> Caribbean Bleaching Outlook:
>
>             The forecast system indicates that there is a potential
> for bleaching across the Caribbean basin in 2009. At this time, the
> model indicates that there is potential for high thermal stress in
> 2009 through October. Our concern at this time is that thermal stress
> potential based on the LIM model is reminiscent of that seen in July
> 2005 hindcasts of the record-setting 2005 event. Currently there
> appears to be some potential for high stress in the central Gulf of
> Mexico and a region stretching from the Lesser Antilles across to the
> southern coast of Hispaniola and the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.
> NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System is now calling for
> development of an El Niño during 2009-10. Typically this has the
> strongest impact in the Caribbean during the second year of the El
> Niño (2010). Finally, in light of predictions for a potential of lower
> than normal precipitation in much of the Caribbean this year (see
> International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Caribbean
> Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology outlooks), we do not expect
> cloud cover to provide relief from the predicted warming as was seen
> earlier this year in Australia. We are still 2-3 months away from the
> peak of this year’s warmest months and we recommend that you monitor
> these updates as we get closer to the event.
>
> Pacific Bleaching Outlook:
>
>             Another area of concern in 2009 is the central Pacific
> including the equatorial Line Islands and Kiribati. This area is
> especially subject to stress if El Niño development continues. NOAA’s
> operational Climate Forecast System is now calling for development of
> an El Niño during 2009-10. There also is a potential for some thermal
> stress to develop between the Northern Marianas Islands and Japan.
> There is also some indication of thermal stress along the Pacific
> coast of Mexico. However, the model is only generating small areas in
> the Pacific with a potential for abnormally high temperatures. Care
> should be taken that these are likely to move from their current
> locations. This region is also subject to intensification during El
> Niño conditions.
>
> Current Bleaching Conditions:
>
> Thermal stress is still low in the Caribbean. However, early
> intensification of heating has occurred in the Gulf of Mexico and
> around the Florida Keys. In fact, the issuance of a Bleaching Watch
> for Sombrero Reef on 22 June 2009 was the earliest such alert since
> our bleaching alert system began in 2003. Two broad bands of warming
> have begun to develop across the Pacific that are consistent with El
> Niño development. This currently has warmed waters above the maximum
> monthly mean (Bleaching Watch) in the Marianas Islands, parts of
> Micronesia, and the outermost Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in one
> band, and Nauru, Howland-Baker, Kiribati, the equatorial Line Islands
> to Clipperton and Mexico along the other band.
>
> Our seasonal bleaching outlooks can be found at:
>
> http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook/index.html
>
> Current HotSpot and Degree Heating Week charts and data formatted for
> HDF and Google Earth can be found at: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.html
>
> Time series graphics for index sites can be found at: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/current/sst_series_24reefs.html
>
> and http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/current/experimental_products.html
>
> You can sign up for automated bleaching alerts at: http://coralreefwatch-satops.noaa.gov/SBA.html
>
>
>
> Please report bleaching events (or non-events) at: http://www.reefbase.org/contribute/bleachingreport.aspx
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
> Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
> Center for Satellite Applications and Research
> Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
> e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
> url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
>
> E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
> 1335 East West Hwy
> Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
> 301-713-2857 x109                   Fax: 301-713-3136
>
> "Together, we must confront climate change by ending the world's
> dependence on fossil fuels, by tapping the power of new sources of
> energy like the wind and sun, and calling upon all nations to do their
> part. And I pledge to you that in this global effort, the United
> States is now ready to lead."
> Barack Obama, Apr. 5 2009
>
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin at noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

E/RA31, SSMC1, Room 5308
1335 East West Hwy
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3226
301-713-2857 x109                   Fax: 301-713-3136

"Few challenges facing America, and the world, are more urgent than  
combating climate change. The science is beyond dispute, and the facts  
are clear..."
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