[Coral-List] RESULTS OF OPINION POLL ON BLEACHING IMPACT
martin.pecheux at free.fr
Sun Dec 18 16:37:07 EST 2011
And the winner is: Dr Gert Jan Gast, first at 08/12/11 13:30:36 HNEC (HNEC ?).
Thanks to those who answered. Indeed, there was less answers than in 2000 and 2004, only 31 (29 replies which were meaningful, plus mine). There was a computer failure (PS 1), as seen in geographical distribution. However, it is still rather informative, even with increasing error margin.
To publish the results as one ask, I see nowhere else than in Reef Encounter, but I have already a submission. And to get more reliable data, I think to send another poll, one or two monthes after the 12th ICRS, perhaps to see evolution (change of paradigm) and to have a statistical software (PS 2), to be submited thereafter.
Geographical distribution of replies of known origin is 3 Europeans, 11 US plus 4 Caribeans, 1 Hawaïan and 1 Australian. In the previous polls, there were half from US and a quarter from Australia, so probably something wrong. There were 7 .net, .org, .com, as before, and 10 .gmail !! (google sponsoring).
Comments where clearly less numerosous in 2004 than in 2000. This time, they are almost lacking. In any case, we don't have to be silent against Global Change.
One says "catastrophic for solar flares in two years but recovery after", a pity not counted. Another says at long that the poll was skewed toward negative questions, better to laugh.
One says "worrysome for managed areas, catastrophic otherwise", that I absolutely don't believe but count 0.5 in the two categories. Nancy Knoltown says "4 if not more", I counted 4. Alan Strong says (pertinent) "1 tomorrow, 2 next year, 3 next decade 4 next century", I counted 4 albeit I am asking for millenium, for future.
I am confident that the coral-list joins the best reef experts (as they bear this professional list, indeed >9/10 to trash, but there are jewels).
Number of replies with % on 30 opinions (2004 results on 45 ones) (2000 results on 56)
Would you say that Coral Reef Mass Bleaching will be :
A benefit to coral reefs, reply 0
00, 00% (00, 00%) (00, 00%) I love
Of no overall effects, or balanced negative and positive influences , reply 1
00, 00% (01, 02%) (03, 05%)
Worrisome, reply 2
3.5, 12% (12, 27%) (13, 23%)
Seriously damaging , reply 3
11, 37% (16, 36% ) (24, 43%)
Catastrophic, reply 4
12, 40% (14, 31% ) (15, 27%)
Almost or total disappearance of reefs, reply 5
3.5, 12% (02, 04%) (01, 02%)
Distributions are normal. There is a greater shift to higher danger: no one states now for balanced effects, half less for worrysome, growing to 40%±14% for catastrophic, and a minority but now weighing 12%±17% for diseappearance (one in 2000 – me, I am proud -, two in 2004, 3.5+ now). Next time, I will split in two this reply, between almost or total disappearance. The poll sample error is squared root [p(1-p)/n], independant of the size of the panel.
It is terrifying that 51.7%±4.0% of reef specialists think that the effects of mass bleaching on reefs will be catastrophic or worst.
See you at the 12th ICRS, kindly,
PS 1. Problem of computer transmissions. I had, and still have small risky problems to send email. But in a while after having send the poll question, a danger symbol appeared at my email receiving window. It was a disaster, help from the hot line, the symbol disappeared alone, but I did not receive any more reply. And one-two day later, Jim Hendee manager of Coral List apologizes for serveur problems of the coral list.
PS 2. I was an user of Statview, above all very interactive. It don't exist any more on "modern" computer generation, and impossible to emulate. Do you have an advice for a cheap but handy statistical software, no needed of sophisticated functions ?
Dr. Martin Pêcheux
IPCC 2007, 2013 WG I (Science of Climate Change), WG II (Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability) Expert Reviewer (I write very badly, and in French not better)
Institut des Foraminifères Symbiotiques
16, rue de la Fontaine de l'Espérance
92160 Antony, France
martin.pecheux at free.fr
+33 (0)9 5324 3374
If we take good measures NOW, it will be like the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Event *, warming and some faunal changes, if we do nothing, it will be like the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary, end of dinosaurs and many others, and if we still do nothing, it will be like the Permo-Trias, 95% species cut, an almost devoid Earth.
* rather sure that it will already be overtake. It was about +4°C, but rise on 10-20 000 years.
There no English translation of the the word "fête", "fiesta" !! Ich weiss nicht mehr im Schweitzer Dutsch. English and Americans don't know faire la fête. They have a great time, or they live it up !
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