[Coral-List] another new article
douglasfennertassi at gmail.com
Wed Jun 10 16:04:03 EDT 2015
Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future
Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing
sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at
low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates
environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of
unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using
the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model
version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow
ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral
habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios.
General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios
and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for
most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain
coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the
equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust
in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef
refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French
Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific
habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20
th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher
latitude coral reefs in the 20thcentury, in future climate scenarios
projected to 2100.
Contractor with Ocean Associates, Inc.
PO Box 7390
Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799 USA
phone 1 684 622-7084
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