[Coral-List] More Conformational bias?

Melbourne Briscoe Mel at briscoe.com
Tue Jun 16 12:48:00 EDT 2015

What you say is true but irrelevant. 
More facts and more shouting does not change the denial/skepticism, but (according to the research) only hardens the position.
It is easy to argue that YOU are a "government scientist" simply defending YOUR position.
The forthcoming encyclical from the Pope will probably do more that all the statistical arguments we can make.

-----Original Message-----
From: coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov [mailto:coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov] On Behalf Of Ruben van Hooidonk
Sent: Tuesday, June 16, 2015 12:16 PM
To: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] More Conformational bias?

I call them climate change deniers, not skeptics. 

First, the article you refer to makes a comparison between the trend in contiguous US temperatures and the global average trend in temperatures.

>From the site you mention: "Data from America’s most advanced climate monitoring system shows the U.S. has undergone a cooling trend over the last decade, despite recent claims by government scientists that warming has accelerated worldwide during that time.”

Local phenomena can show different patterns than world wide averages. No surprise there. So what is the point of the article? The skeptics say there was a pause in US temperatures in an arbitrarily chosen time frame. That is cherry picking. 

Second, any 10 year period is too short to make any conclusions about trends. For some excellent information on trends and the hiatus:

Using the 1990-2015 period the trend is 0.13ºF per decade based on NOAA data, available here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ <http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/>

I’ve uploaded a plot of average temperatures over the US from 1990-2015 here:

> On Jun 16, 2015, at 10:01 AM, Eugene Shinn <eugeneshinn at mail.usf.edu> wrote:
> NOAA says there was no 18 year pause in global warming. Skeptics say 
> there was.
> http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/15/americas-most-advanced-climate-stati
> on-data-shows-us-in-a-10-year-cooling-trend/?fb_ref=Default&fb_source=
> message

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