[Coral-List] Evidence that ocean warming has caused most Caribbean coral loss

Billy Causey - NOAA Federal billy.causey at noaa.gov
Thu Apr 27 12:05:18 EDT 2017

You make very clear and persuasive points!!  Thank you for your
thoughts and experience.  I agree 100% with you.  Billy Causey

Sent from my iPhone

Billy D. Causey, P.h.D.
Regional Director
NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries
33 E Quay Rd
Key West, Florida. 33040

Office:  305 809 4671
Mobile:  305 395 0150

Billy.Causey at noaa.gov

> On Apr 27, 2017, at 10:41 AM, Pedro M Alcolado <gmalcolado at gmail.com> wrote:
> I support  Steve. We have to try to avoid to dilute srong existing
> evidence of impact of climate change, with  fragmentary arguments
> that indeed conduct to anything and provide support to those that
> claim that there is not enough evidence of climate impact on coral
> reefs, just when urgent strong actions have to be promoted with strong
> vested political and economic interest with no evidence. We have to
> hold a precautionary approach and to unite on our solid arguments,
> instead of mentioning particularities or exceptional cases. Sorry for
> my imperfect English.
> Best,
> Pedro
>> On 4/26/17, Steve Mussman <sealab at earthlink.net> wrote:
>> Dear John and Mike,
>> I ask this respectfully,  don't you both (as well as the vast majority of
>> your colleagues) ultimately arrive at the same conclusion?
>> Correct me if I'm wrong, but regardless of how we got here, don't you agree
>> that it is ocean warming that now represents the consummate threat?   I may
>> be interpreting things incorrectly, but It seems to me that at this point we
>> need a unified message reflecting the urgency of addressing this particular
>> issue.
>> At the same time we can all remain supportive of the various efforts aimed
>> at addressing local stressors.
>> Regards,
>> Steve
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>> On Apr 25, 2017, at 8:50 AM, Bruno, John <jbruno at unc.edu> wrote:
>>> Dear Mike, thank you for your ongoing interest in this topic and my post..
>>> "the Caribbean had already lost more than half its reefs before water
>>> temperatures had increased by more than a fraction of a degree”
>>> This is a common misconception from folks unaware that global warming
>>> began many decades ago. Please have a look at the NOAA data plotted in
>>> this figure from my post:
>>> http://theseamonster.net/2017/04/caribbean-bleaching/nclimate2915-f4/  Or
>>> the graphics in Kuffner et al 2014 below it. These data should sort you
>>> out. The Caribbean had clearly warmed significantly by the time mean coral
>>> cover had been roughly halved (around the mid-1980s). Also, we haven’t
>>> lost any reefs yet, what we’ve lost is coral cover (and fish biomass).
>>> Iv’e dove near Havana and I agree - its a mess and was probably locally
>>> impacted. And I don’t understand the logic in arguing managers should give
>>> up because climate change has had significant impacts on corals.. I’ve
>>> said it a million times: local impacts need to be mitigated. We all agree
>>> on that. I think you’re underestimating managers and local conservation
>>> capacity. (All the managers I know acknowledge climate change but aren’t
>>> giving up). As the Ocean Optimism symposium highlighted over the weekend,
>>> local successes are realistic and very much meaningful and worthwhile.
>>> "and there is overwhelming evidence of land-based stress going back to the
>>> 70’s”
>>> You have been promising this list-serv these references for years now. If
>>> you ever find them, please do share with us if you have the time.
>>> "how well could coral reefs survive ocean warming if they were not already
>>> stressed by [local] human impacts?”
>>> That experiment has been run dozens of times. On the northern GBR, on
>>> Scott Reef, off Southern Cuba or in the Bahamas, across the central
>>> Pacific, etc.. The answer is not well at all.
>>> The reason is that local impacts do not appear to act synergistically with
>>> ocean warming. As Cote and Darling suggested
>>> (http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio..1000438),
>>> the interaction appears to be antagonistic, not synergistic. Either that
>>> or the impact of warming is so much stronger that it swamps the local and
>>> synergistic signals. Also see Darling et al 2010: htt
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