[Coral-List] Seminar Today at 1:30pm ET: Vulnerability of U.S. Coral Reefs to Climate Change under the COP21 Paris Agreement

Tracy Gill - NOAA Federal tracy.gill at noaa.gov
Wed Jan 11 09:26:09 EST 2017

*​**OneNOAA Science Seminar Series *- Apologies for cross-posts

*Title: Vulnerability of U.S. Coral Reefs to Climate Change under the COP21
Paris Agreement*

Speakers: Dr. Jeffrey Maynard (*presenting at NOAA Silver Spring, SSMC4, Rm
915*3), SymbioSeas and the Marine Applied Research Center, Wilmington NC.
Presentation Co-authors: Ruben van Hooidonk, Jerker Tamelander, Jamison
Gove, Gabby Ahmadia, Laurie Raymundo, Gareth Williams, Scott Heron, Serge
Planes, and Britt Parker.

*When: TODAY at 1:30pm ET*

Where: *NOAA SSMC4, Rm 9153 or via online *- see webinar login below

Sponsor: NOAA's National Ocean Service Science Seminar; seminar hosts are
tracy.gill at noaa.gov and britt.parker at noaa.gov

Webinar Login: Mymeeting webinar uses phone for and internet.
Audio is only available over the phone: dial toll-free from US or CAN:
1-877-708-1667. Enter code 7028688#
For the webcast, go to www.mymeetings.com  Under "Participant Join", click
"Join an Event", then add conf no: 744925156. No is code needed for the
web. Be sure to install the correct plug‐in for WebEx before the seminar
starts; the temporary plugin works fine.

Abstract: Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the
greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate
models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual
severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to
change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution
projections (~1x1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet
the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically
downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these
projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies
>10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500km2 of reef
area. ASB timing under RCP8.5 varies >30 years among U.S. coral reefs.

Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will
eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change
Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges provide reefs with more
time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring
annually; the amount of time varies greatly among U.S coral reefs from
2->40 years. Reefs in central Florida and NW Hawaii benefit most from the
emissions reductions pledges becoming reality with a projected ASB timing
>30 years later projected under business-as-usual RCP8.5). We are
generating climate impact summaries for all U.S. coral reef jurisdictions
that will describe the downscaled bleaching projections along with thermal
history, and projected sea level rise and ocean acidification. Coral reef
futures clearly vary greatly among and within the U.S. and other countries,
indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during
conservation and management planning.

About the Speaker: Dr. Jeffrey Maynard is the Manager of SymbioSeas (
www.symbioseas.org) and the Marine Applied Research Center, in Wilmington,
NC. Jeffrey assembles and co-leads teams that develop decision-support
tools that help managers maximize coral reef and coastal community
resilience. Tools his teams have developed use remote sensing, climate
modeling, and resilience and vulnerability assessment methodologies to
identify action options for managers.Those options are then prioritized in
collaboration with managers, built into management planning and frequently
become on-ground action.  Jeffrey is a long-term partner and grant
recipient of the CRCP currently working in collaboration with CRCP and
other NOAA staff in all 8 of the U.S. coral reef jurisdictions.

Subscribe to the OneNOAA Science Seminar weekly email: Send an email to
OneNOAAscienceseminars-request at list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe'
in the subject or body. See http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/



Tracy A. Gill   tracy.gill at noaa.gov   240-533-0349 NEW NUMBER!Physical
Scientist, NOAA <http://www.noaa.gov/>/NOS
<http://coastalscience.noaa.gov/about/centers/ccma>, Biogeography
Branch1305 East-West Hwy, # 9208, Silver Spring, MD  20910

*Check out NOAA's **NCCOS Website <http://coastalscience.noaa.gov/>*
*for more on our projects, products and news.*

          o                                O

><(((o>                                    o

            <o)))><                    o

    <o)))><                  ><(((o>   ><(((o>

More information about the Coral-List mailing list