[Coral-List] Coral-List Digest, Vol 107, Issue 22 -Re: sea level rise speeding up
Durwood M. Dugger
ddugger at biocepts.com
Thu Jul 20 16:39:26 EDT 2017
Did I miss it? Jeff Tollefson’s article doesn’t seem to provide any reference where tidal gauges are currently showing an average of 4mm/yr. of sea level rise exists. If I missed something I would appreciate that tidal gauge data reference.
I have to agree Richard Dunne. This past year I helped research the basis for a graduate level course in Anthropogenic Marine Impacts. Researching sea level data interpretations are at least as uninspiring - regarding scientific confidence - as Richard so well points out.
Satellite measurement errors have been down played by satellite technology groups over the past decade. They have even reduced the discussion of those errors in places like WikiPedia. A few years ago there was an entire section ”Satellite Error” discussing the problems of sea level measurement regarding satellite orbital decay and the need for calibration - and resulting sea level measurement errors. The satellite error discussion in Wikipedia now seems to have been reduced from a bold sub-heading under Sea Level Rise to a couple paragraphs under the generic subheading of “Satellites <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Satellites>.”
Additionally, reading numerous of papers on the subject spanning the beginning of tidal gauge measurements to and through present satellite and LIDAR elevation technologies - I was struck by the number of papers that don’t separate subsidence from true sea level rise. I suspect that a lot of the uneven sea level rise rate data we see are caused by poor land subsidence accountings - and or uplift and accretion. You can still see examples of the lack of subsidence consideration in current authoritative sea level rise discussions like the chart here where the Galveston, Tx. and Sitka, AL <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#United_States> showing the highest sea level rise rates in the US, but they also have the fastest subsidence rates and clearly the chart does not reflect sea level rise alone.
I too, am glad to see that those folks whose egos and jobs are attached to the accuracy (or lack thereof) of satellite sea level measurements have now developed the necessary algorithmic (fudge factors) that allow satellite measurement to finally align with most tidal gauge measurements. Now can we assume that those satellite and tidal gauge measurement comparisons reflect accurate subsidence, uplift and or accretion rates?
I’m not at all saying that sea levels aren't rising, but only voicing my major concerns over our hubris and our obvious in our ability accurately measure sea level changes over short periods. Perhaps equally or more concerning are those folks who are more than willing to make WAG projections - especially when there is still data not considering the most basic elements of sea level rise - such as accurate subsidence, uplift and accretion.
It’s interesting to note that there is also skepticism of our nascent climate science accuracy alive and well in the Land Down Under <http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/05/25/sea-level-rise-hysteria-can-be-cured-by-looking-at-tide-gauge-data/> regarding rapid increases in sea level rise projections and how they suggest connections between increased CO2 levels, and rainfall (or lack thereof), with subsidence.
Regarding Doug’s comment on the importance of sea level rise to corals - here’s a recent encouraging paper on some corals' growth and recovery from thermal anomalies. <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5390766/>
Last but by far not the least, the lack of connection made between climate change, sea level rise and all other forms of ANTHROPOGENIC MARINE IMPACTS - is the continuing failure to discuss the over abundant quantities of Anthropogens on our planet. A global failure to maintain and or even entertain positive and benevolent discussion about how we reduce global overpopulation - before we destroy not only our species, but countless others.
As I’m reading these Coral List comments in Bonaire, and while I make my own comment - I watch three different dive boats and one local fishing boat run through the shallows on the inside of the reef behind our apartment on the leeward west side of the island. They could have added a few hundred yards more to their respective journeys (rather than making this short cut through the coral inhabited turquoise shallows) by going into the deeper water further out in blue water as the round Punt Vierkant. Last year there was a massive 8 foot high Elkhorn Coral reaching toward the surface about 25 meters from the shore. This year the Elkhorn (stump) is only three feet high and it branching arms are gone. Earlier today I was at Jibe City on Lac Bay watching locals and cruise ship tourists walk - and windsurfers sail through - the areas fringe marine grass beds that have been protected and respected areas for more than a decade - and now that respect seems totally forgotten. This year most of the grass beds are gone - just giant bald spots that were once productive habitat in Lac Bay.
When will we take responsibility? Not just for our fellow humans' mindless actions, but as well our mindless reproduction and resulting grossly excessive numbers and the resulting critical finite resource depletion - that make us the most unsustainable species on the planet.
Durwood M. Dugger, Pres.
ddugger at biocepts.com <mailto:ddugger at biocepts.com>
BCI, Inc. <http://www.biocepts.com/BCI/Home.html>
Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2017 15:18:49 +0100
From: Richard Dunne <RichardPDunne at aol.com <mailto:RichardPDunne at aol.com>>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] sea level rise speeding up
To: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com <mailto:douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>>, coral list
<coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov <mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>
Message-ID: <b3175b28-fc37-4d90-07c1-8d61d8e45637 at aol.com <mailto:b3175b28-fc37-4d90-07c1-8d61d8e45637 at aol.com>>
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I have used satellite (SST & SSH), tide-gauge data, and GPS products for
Satellite data in particular is dependent on accurate calibration, and
the quality of the processing algorithms (scientific guesswork?). When
that earlier processing is shown to be wrong such as in this case it is
not very reassuring.
More generally, I have experienced Hadley SST products with inexplicable
discrepancies, GPS data which has shown land rising, falling and
stationary depending on which 'solution' is employed, and even
tide-gauge data held on central databases with unexplained errors.
Perhaps we are 'improving' in all this data collection and analysis. I
hope so. In the meantime in trusting what is available it transpires
that we are simply generating results that are rubbish. I guess it is
time to start deleting some of the older (now inaccurate) papers - but
Richard P Dunne
On 19/07/2017 21:07, Douglas Fenner wrote:
> Satellite snafu masked true sea-level rise for decades.
> http://www.nature.com/news/satellite-snafu-masked-true-sea-level-rise-for-decades-1.22312?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20170720&spMailingID=54526224&spUserID=MjA1NTA3MjA0OQS2&spJobID=1203043033&spReportId=MTIwMzA0MzAzMwS2 <http://www.nature.com/news/satellite-snafu-masked-true-sea-level-rise-for-decades-1.22312?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20170720&spMailingID=54526224&spUserID=MjA1NTA3MjA0OQS2&spJobID=1203043033&spReportId=MTIwMzA0MzAzMwS2>
> I note that they say that the new calculations fit with tide gauge records
> around the world, all sources of info on sea level now agree. I also note
> that they report that average sea level rise around the world is now nearly
> 4 mm per year. Sea level rise is of course important for coral reefs.
> Cheers, Doug
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End of Coral-List Digest, Vol 107, Issue 22
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