[Coral-List] new "business as usual" projections for climate change

Peter Sale sale at uwindsor.ca
Sat Feb 8 05:25:19 UTC 2020


Hi Doug and coral-list,
Doug recently drew our attention to an article by Housefather and Peters in the 30th Jan issue of Nature concerning RCP8.5, the so-called 'business-as-usual' pathway developed by IPCC for modeling future climate.  Main thrust of the article is that RCP8.5 is an overly pessimistic trajectory to be referred to as 'business-as-usual', implying the future we are headed towards.  In other words, we'd be unwise to treat projections using this pathway as a likely future path for the planet.

I was surprised because I had not heard such caution from people other than denialists before.  The article is in a respected journal, and I know nothing about the two authors. Nor do I have time at this moment to delve into the details of what they are saying, but I did google the Breakthrough Institute in Oregon, the home of the lead author.  It is at best a 'middle-of-the-road' think tank meaning not left-leaning, and it has a long history of connection to climate deniers, such as Bjorn Lombourg and Roger Pielke.  For me, that means the message from this paper should be accepted only with caution.

I realize this post strays rather far from coral reefs, but we reef scientists need to understand the science (and politics) of climate if we are going to talk about reef decline.  I plan to read the Housefather article carefully, and keep my eyes open for signs the climate science community agrees with their assessment, or not.  So, Doug, unlike you I did not see this article as a cause for optimism about the future - I saw it as a sign that efforts to obfuscate and muddle may have even infiltrated the pages of Nature.

Peter Sale
University of Windsor, Canada



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