[Coral-List] climate change could kill all reefs
sealab at earthlink.net
sealab at earthlink.net
Tue Feb 25 21:00:44 UTC 2020
Hi Doug,
One of the papers I cited to Dennis provides a comprehensive risk/benefit analysis of assisted coral migration.
https://nsac.law.miami.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Bartz-Final.pdf
A cautionary note is summarized in the conclusion (below) and I believe applies to more conventional restoration efforts as well.
I would just add that I don’t believe the authors were implying that climate change is by any means the only threat. Local stressors undoubtedly would be included in the “newfound regulatory frameworks” as they would require remediation as well if we are to have any real hope of averting the unfolding disaster before us.
“Curbing climate change is the only way that corals will ultimately survive. Staged withdrawal may incentivize high-latitude coral refugia for the time being, but these populations are threatened by the onset of ocean acidification, which occurs on a longer time horizon than ocean warming. Though the coral reef, due to its vociferous response to climate change as voiced through the scientific outcry in response to recent declines, may be considered a proverbial canary in the coalmine, this is not a constructive metaphor as the humble canary succumbs to the toxic air in the end; humankind cannot allow coral reefs to perish. Our instrumental and intrinsic dependence on the continued function of coral reef ecosystems should merit newfound regulatory frameworks and climate change mitigation”.
Regards,
Steve
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On 2/25/20, 1:35 PM, Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com> wrote:
And my understanding is that acidification is greater at higher latitudes. My guess was that this presentation was saying that there are very very few places which are likely to escape both bleaching temperatures and acidification. Cheers, Doug
On Tue, Feb 25, 2020 at 1:25 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)> wrote:
Facts to consider: Latitudinal limits of environmental suitability for reef building corals is more than just temperature. Nutrient concentrations of coastal waters increase with latitude, favoring more eutrophic community structure: more algae, more sponges that outcompete corals. Also photoperiod changes with, in general, less light during many months of the year, so this will also affect coral growth rates and competitive outcome with faster growing benthic organisms.
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-----Original Message-----
From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)> On Behalf Of Steve Mussman via Coral-List
Sent: Friday, February 21, 2020 5:19 PM
To: Dennis Hubbard <dennis.hubbard at oberlin.edu (mailto:dennis.hubbard at oberlin.edu)>
Cc: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] climate change could kill all reefs
Hi Dennis,
Here are a few links to papers/articles that discuss the viability of moving corals to preferred habitats in order to offset warming conditions. Of course, assisted migration as a strategy for coral survival under conditions associated with rapid climate change raises lots of questions just as many current restoration efforts do.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-014-1145-2
https://www.nap.edu/read/25279/chapter/6
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/7/7/201/htm
https://www.newswise.com/articles/coral-immigrants-provide-hope-for-reefs-facing-climate-change
https://nsac.law.miami.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Bartz-Final.pdf
I thought this recent paper was of particular interest for it provides an assessment of assisted migration vs. assisted evolution of corals on reefs under increasing stress from climate change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12065-0
Regards,
Steve Mussman
Sent from my iPad
>> On Feb 21, 2020, at 1:41 PM, Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)> wrote:
> This is truly sobering information. As those on the list are well
> aware, I am not a fan of coral transplanting unless it occurs in
> places where the problem that has caused the dieoff do not exist (the
> oft-used "putting people back in burning buildings" analogy). However,
> given the shrinking number of viable alternatives, I wonder if we
> might might think about moving some corals to sites further north or
> south (depending on the
> hemisphere) where temperatures could be more conducive to survival
> during heating events. A lot of thought would obviously have to be
> given to things like possibly greater thermal variability at new
> sites, the likelihood that non-thermal stresses that might exist at
> particular sites and the extent to which other factors (e.g., sediment
> input, wave climate, substrate type that is different from the present
> site) might be less than ideal. Has anyone given any thoughts to
> scenarios where distance might serve as a proxy for temperature? In
> years past, I might have been the first one to chime in with, "are you kidding?", but....
>
> Dennis
>
> On Thu, Feb 20, 2020 at 3:27 PM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)> wrote:
>
>> Climate change could kill all of the world's coral reefs by 2100,
>> scientists warn
>>
>> https://a.msn.com/r/2/BB10bzFz?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare
>>
>> Warming, acidic oceans may nearly eliminate coral reef habitats by
>> 2100
>>
>>
>> https://news.agu.org/press-release/warming-acidic-oceans-may-nearly-e
>> liminate-coral-reef-habitats-by-2100/
>>
>>
>> Few places would be left where coral restoration would be viable.
>>
>> Open-access.
>>
>> Cheers, Doug
>>
>> --
>> Douglas Fenner
>> Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
>> NOAA Fisheries Service
>> Pacific Islands Regional Office
>> Honolulu
>> and:
>> Consultant
>> PO Box 7390
>> Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799 USA
>>
>> "Already, more people die
>> <http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml>from
>> heat-related causes in the U.S. than from all other extreme weather
>> events."
>>
>>
>>
>> https://www.npr.org/2018/07/09/624643780/phoenix-tries-to-reverse-its
>> -silent-storm-of-heat-deaths
>>
>>
>> Even 50-year old climate models correctly predicted global warmng
>>
>> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-mode
>> ls-correctly-predicted-global-warming?utm_campaign=news_weekly_2019-1
>> 2-06&et_rid=17045989&et_cid=3113276
>>
>> "Global warming is manifestly the foremost current threat to coral
>> reefs, and must be addressed by the global community if reefs as we
>> know them will have any chance to persist." Williams et al, 2019,
>> Frontiers in Marine Science
>> _______________________________________________
>> Coral-List mailing list
>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov (mailto:Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov)
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>
>
> --
> Dennis Hubbard
> Chair, Dept of Geology-Oberlin College Oberlin OH 44074
> (440) 775-8346
>
> * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
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--
Douglas Fenner
Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
NOAA Fisheries Service
Pacific Islands Regional Office
Honolulu
and:
Consultant
PO Box 7390
Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799 USA
"Already, more people die (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml)from heat-related causes in the U.S. than from all other extreme weather events."
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/09/624643780/phoenix-tries-to-reverse-its-silent-storm-of-heat-deaths
Even 50-year old climate models correctly predicted global warmng
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctly-predicted-global-warming?utm_campaign=news_weekly_2019-12-06&et_rid=17045989&et_cid=3113276
"Global warming is manifestly the foremost current threat to coral reefs, and must be addressed by the global community if reefs as we know them will have any chance to persist." Williams et al, 2019, Frontiers in Marine Science
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