[Coral-List] climate change worse than we thought

[Douglas Fenner]

The surprise for me was that if and when coal use declines as we move to
renewables, that reduces air pollution, a large part of which are aerosols
such as SO2, which actually cool the earth.  So reducing coal if it isn't
replaced by natural gas reduces both CO2 emissions and SO2, CO2 heats and
SO2 cools (we've known that for a long time), and that means the aerosol
reduction cancels out much or all of the CO2 reduction in terms of reducing
the greenhouse gas effect.  And that's if we don't just switch from coal to
natural gas, in which CO2 is reduced much less (and there are lots of
methane leaks, which is a much more powerful greenhouse gas, but doesn't
last as long in the atmosphere, but which has been argued to essentially
negate any advantage of natural gas in terms or reducing global warming.
Could be avoided if the leaks were fixed, but they aren't being fixed.).
Sulfur dioxide is a strong pollutant otherwise, causes acid rain and is
nasty to health, etc, and coal burning releases other pollutants, such as
lots of mercury which is calculated to kill about 20,000 people a year in
the US alone, and is the source of mercury in tuna (adults should not eat
more than one can a week, children less).
     The situation is far worse than we have been thinking, and that
includes for coral reefs.  This is not the first or only piece to argue
that the IPCC has been too conservative in it's estimates.  I believe it is
a fact that each new IPCC report basically has said the situation is worse
than they thought in the previous report.  And we are currently at
"business as usual" with no sustained reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions.  We haven't begun to make a dent in what matters!!
     And that is going to devastate coral reef ecosystems (the dead
geological structures will remain for much longer than human lifetimes).
Algae will not substitute for coral.
     No??.    Cheers, Doug

On Mon, Feb 8, 2021 at 7:23 AM Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
wrote:

> How many people on Coral List read the article in the 3rd link Doug
> shared, and what is your hope for the future of coral reefs and Earth
> organisms in general (including human societies) after digesting the
> information presented?
>
> https://www.climaterealitycheck.net/flipbook
>
>
> Dr. Alina M. Szmant,  CEO
> CISME Instruments LLC
>
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> Date: 2/7/21 4:48 PM (GMT-05:00)
> To: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> Subject: [Coral-List] ocean slicks host larvae; climate change worse than
> we thought
>
>
> Climate reality check 2020
>
> It is much worse than we thought, a huge threat to coral reefs and humanity
>
> https://www.climaterealitycheck.net/flipbook
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
> --
> Douglas Fenner
> Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> NOAA Fisheries Service
> Pacific Islands Regional Office
> Honolulu
> and:
> Coral Reef Consulting
> PO Box 997390
> Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
>
> Social cost of carbon emissions much higher than previous estimates
>
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/trump-downplayed-costs-carbon-pollution-s-about-change
>
> A German initiative seeks to curb global emissions of a climate
> super-pollutant
>
> https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30122020/chemical-plant-nitrous-oxide-climate-warming-emissions/
>
> The toxic effects of air pollution are so bad that moving from fossil fuels
> to clean energy would pay for itself in health-care savings and
> productivity gains
> <
> https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=c9f70ba54f&e=190a62d266
> >
> —
> even if climate change didn’t exist.  In the US alone, decarbonization
> would save 1.4 MILLION lives in the US alone.  And save $700 Billion a
> year.
>
> https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths
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