[Coral-List] A half trillion corals in the Pacific Ocean alone

[sealab at earthlink.net]

Hi Doug,

Thanks for bringing yet another thought provoking paper to the list’s attention.

This summary article (https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-03/acoe-hat022821.php) makes the point that its conclusions may have implications for coral reef management strategies going forward. I agree, but it seems to me that the train has already left the station. From my perspective it appears that the coral science community has already become fully committed to restoration. My concern is that Terry Hughes’ perspective on this (as in the article noted above) now serves as somewhat of an outlier when it should be the scientific standard.

Just wondering how you and others see this playing out.

Regards,

Steve Mussman

On 3/6/21, 4:52 PM, Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

A search on "half-trillion corals" produces a long list of news stories

about this new study (looks like most repeat the press release from James

Cook Univ in Australia, the second article listed below). Some quotes

below to spur discussion:

A half-trillion corals live in just one ocean. Does that mean they are

safe?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/half-trillion-corals-live-just-one-ocean-does-mean-they-are-safe

The numbers are “incredibly encouraging,”

The upshot is that “most people don’t know how worried to be” about corals,

Knowlton says.

“most of these species will not go globally extinct in the near future,”

(Doug: but small population size is only one risk factor for extinction.

Others include rate of decline of population and species geographic range,

and prospects for future damage)

Already, about one-third of the world’s 6000 known coral species are

listed (Doug: nope, there are only about 831 presently recognized reef

building coral species and another 600+ azooxanthellate species)

*Porites nigrescens*, which forms massive boulders on reef flats (Doug:

nope, it is branching)

Red List status “is not determined by the total number of individuals.”

(Doug: true, almost all were listed based on estimated decreases in

populations, not population size)

As the fate of passenger pigeon has shown “species with extremely high

populations have gone extinct in the past,” Polidoro adds. (Doug: it was

estimated to have about 1 billion individuals, and they were driven to

extinction by humans shooting them, surprisingly quickly. It was in North

America, that's where I come from.)

That doesn’t mean Pacific corals aren’t in danger

---------------------------

Half a trillion corals: world-first coral count prompts rethink of

extinction risks

https://phys.org/news/2021-03-trillion-corals-world-first-coral-prompts.html

The findings suggest that while a local loss of coral can be devastating to

coral reefs, the global extinction risk of most coral species is lower than

previously estimated.

Extinctions could instead unfold over a much longer timeframe because of

the broad geographic ranges and huge population sizes of many coral species.

"Coral restoration is not the solution to climate change. You would have to

grow about 250 million adult corals to increase coral cover on the Great

Barrier Reef by just one percent."

"Given the huge size of these coral populations, it is very unlikely that

they face imminent extinction. There is still time to protect them from

anthropogenic heating, but only if we act quickly on reducing greenhouse

gas emissions."

Cheers, Doug

--

Douglas Fenner

Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor

NOAA Fisheries Service

Pacific Islands Regional Office

Honolulu

and:

Coral Reef Consulting

PO Box 997390

Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298 USA

Social cost of carbon emissions much higher than previous estimates

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/trump-downplayed-costs-carbon-pollution-s-about-change

A German initiative seeks to curb global emissions of a climate

super-pollutant

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30122020/chemical-plant-nitrous-oxide-climate-warming-emissions/

The toxic effects of air pollution are so bad that moving from fossil fuels

to clean energy would pay for itself in health-care savings and

productivity gains

—

even if climate change didn’t exist. In the US alone, decarbonization

would save 1.4 MILLION lives in the US alone. And save $700 Billion a year.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths

_______________________________________________

Coral-List mailing list

Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov

https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list