[Coral-List] New Paper: Resilient corals in the Phoenix Islands

Tue Sep 14 17:48:01 UTC 2021

Yes, Austin, "science needs to present the truth" and the whole truth.
Cheers,
Vassil

On Tue, Sep 14, 2021 at 11:29 AM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Bula Michael and Phillip and all on the Coral List,
>
> I have a very different and less hopeful take on this Phoenix Islands
> study.  The report presents data that clearly shows- but does not discuss,
> the fact that these reefs are no longer typical Acropora dominated
> mid-ocean atoll ecosystems.  There has been a phase shift away from
> Acropora dominance, which apparently happened well before the data in the
> study.  Less than 1% Acropora cover remains, and that fact should be a
> cause for grave concern.  I do not consider this study evidence for
> ecosystem resilience, rather I consider it evidence for a near complete
> ecosystem phase-shift.
>
> There seems to be an agenda to look at the positive and to therefore paint
> a rosier picture than may actually be the case: that the pristine waters of
> PIPA, a huge conservation area, are somehow more resilient than other more
> impacted coral reefs.  I suppose we all need hope, and yes, at least these
> reefs are still coral dominated.  But science needs to present the truth,
> and the truth is that these coral reefs, despite being located in amazingly
> pristine and unfished waters, appear to be massively altered ecosystems due
> to nothing other than the severe impact of coral bleaching caused by
> climate change.  But at least they remain coral dominated - for now.
>
> Kiribati is the most impacted nation on earth from coral bleaching, with up
> to 77 months of condition one and two bleaching since records began,
> contrasting with a global coral reef sampling station average total of
> around 15 months.  We have seen in our work this same extinction or
> near-extinction of all Acropora species for Kiritimati Atoll in the nearby
> Line Islands, which was hit even harder than the Phoenix Islands, and is
> still dominated by coralline algae covered rock, not corals.  As Peter Sale
> pointed out to me, once corals die out, so do the many coral obligate fish
> and invertebrates, especially those associated with Acropora and other
> branching corals. So this phase shift will have dire consequences to
> biodiversity, and it really should be studied with more urgency.
>
> My experience working on the reefs of Kiribati has rocked my world.  I feel
> as if I have visited the future and have gotten a view of what is coming
> globally.  I asked myself "what would I do, if I could somehow go back in
> time to these reefs in 2014, or to 1988, if I knew what I know now?".   My
> conclusion to this meditation was that there is much that can be done to
> prepare coral reefs for what is coming, and to prevent the coming local
> mass extinctions.  I now focus on the Acropora species and anything rare or
> uncommon, I treat them all as threatened with extinction on a decadal scale
> and based on scientific predictions.  I focus on within-reef translocation,
> sampling the corals of the hottest reef areas first- the shallow lagoons
> and nearshore waters.  I bring those most heat adapted corals out to cooler
> waters and establish them within nurseries, in preparation for a mass die
> off of all corals from the hottest reefs, as heat resistance has limits
> that are going to be exceeded in the coming years.  If I had the time and
> resources, I would also sample corals from the main cooler barrier reefs
> and begin moving them hundreds of kilometers south in the southern
> hemisphere, and north in the northern hemisphere, in order to save them
> from bleaching temperatures, helping retain cooler water adapted corals
> into the future.
>
> By focusing on Kiribati, we can now project 10, 20, or even 30 years into
> the future, and realize that one-by-one reefs will likely undergo such
> phase shifts and species extinctions that we now see in Kiribati.  Coral
> species will become rare or will die out, including both cool adapted and
> heat adapted variants- but this does not have to be the case if we act
> now.  It may be possible to keep all coral species alive into the future
> and in a diverse and reproductive condition, thriving at elevated
> temperatures and lower pH on reefs, and within healthy and ecologically
> balanced patches, with all the normally associated fish and invertebrate
> biodiversity contained within.  From these patches, resilience might
> spread, and coral reef adaptation accelerate, or at least these vital
> species might survive- buying time until humanity finds our proper
> balance.  But now I am the one painting a rosy picture, and this scenario
> will be impossible unless we seize the moment and develop and implement a
> comprehensive and unified strategy before it is too late.
>
> Kind regards to all,
>
> Austin
>
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> <
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >
>
>
> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
> (679) 938-6437
> http:/www.
> <
> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
> >
> teiteifiji.org
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 11:42 AM Phillip Dustan via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Guess this is what we call Evolution by Natural Selection - a classic
> case
> > study.
> > Nice to know that corals still have it within their powers to adapt to
> > changes in selection pressure.
> > If we'd only give them half a chance they'd be fine.
> > As it is, they will most probably outlast humanity....
> > P
> >
> > On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 8:18 AM Michael Fox via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > > Hi Coral List,
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I want to draw your attention to our recent paper, ‘Increasing coral
> reef
> > > resilience through successive marine heatwaves” available here:
> > > https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094128
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Our observation that the effects of thermal stress on PIPA’s coral
> > > populations have lessened over the course of three major El Niño events
> > > raises important questions about the capacity of corals to adapt to
> ocean
> > > warming. These findings complement a suite of recent papers
> highlighting
> > > the ability of stress tolerant corals to successfully pass on
> beneficial
> > > traits to their next generation.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > All the best,
> > > Mike
> > > --
> > > Mike
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> >
> >
> >
> > Phillip Dustan PhD
> > Charleston SC  29424
> > 843-953-8086 office
> > 843-224-3321 (mobile)
> >
> > "When we try to pick out anything by itself
> > we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
> > that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
> > *                                         John Muir 1869*
> >
> > *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
> > *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
> >
> >
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
> > *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
> >
> > *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
> > <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
> > TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
> > Google Scholar Citations:
> > https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
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