[Coral-List] Bleaching

Fri Apr 22 12:54:31 UTC 2022

Hi Christine,

Thanks for the reply and sharing your take on things. It is good that you
still have some hope that what you and others are doing will make a
difference.  If we had thirty years to turn things around, I would agree
with you.  But we don't, not if the IPCC findings are correct- we are
heading right over the cliff of 3.2C by 2100.  Only a derailment might save
us now!  Sorry for this bleak outlook, but I still have hope, so read on.

According to this 3.2C scenario, unless we have massive reductions in
carbon release, the investment solutions that are being applied will not
make any difference to the survival of coral species, nor will just about
every approach presently being taken.  The depth of the crisis is that it
is not confined to an environmental crisis driven by corporate greed... it
is much worse:  ineffective and divisive partisan politics, deep political
corruption, an unjust economic order and extremes of wealth and poverty
driving deforestation and biodiversity collapse even without climate
change, all set within a deeply unjust and racist/ sexist world where those
in power prevent the required positive changes.

The firestorm is heading our way, and we need to change our approach from
creating national parks and banning hunting, as well as planting seedlings
and reforestation of damaged areas.  The time has arrived for evacuating
seedlings and creating seed banks, to secure as much of the diversity as
possible. No more random outplanting in the face of the approaching
firestorm without consideration of bleaching resistance or future
temperature regimes.  So, I have thrown my former beliefs about restoration
out the window, because nearly all of the present work is making the same
mistakes that I did, and so when the mass bleaching events grow stronger,
and the diseases more virulent, most of the progress made may be swept
away.  What looks great now I fear will mostly die.  I hint at this, even
to the point of rudeness, but few really get it - that unless there is a
concerted effort to get behind coral focused coral adaptation, such as
translocation of inner reef, bleaching resistant corals out to cooler
waters, that most of our most heat adapted genets/symbionts will perish as
the water heats up to levels that they can not cope with in the nearshore.

It is urgent that we change some of our mental paradigms based on the
reality presented to us in the IPCC report- 3.2C, more than double the 1.5
pipedream, where 10% of the coral reefs might have been saved.  None of the
presently accepted and widely implemented approaches will save the reefs at
that temperature- NONE.  But that does not mean that there are no options,
and this is what we have been focused on since 2016.   The best option that
I see now is  identification of the bleaching resistant corals, followed by
local translocation from hotter reefs to colder reefs, where future
temperatures will be sublethal.

Kind regards,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands

https://www.corals4conservation.org
https://www.facebook.com/C4Conservation
TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>

Teitei Livelihoods Centre
Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
(679) 938-6437
http:/www.
<http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji>
teiteifiji.org
http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/

On Fri, Apr 22, 2022 at 3:29 AM Christine Ward-Paige <christine at eoceans.co>
wrote:

> Hi Austin,
>
> Thanks for this important dialogue. I believe I may have some unique
> perspective on the investment/innovation/conservation side of things.
>
> I'm a marine scientist turned tech founder/entrepreneur. With a PhD and
> 20+ years experience in marine conservation research, I'm often the only
> ecologically trained person in most ocean/blue incubator/investor spaces
> that I'm in. I have seen first hand how these decisions that you've
> described play out. While I am excited to see the swell of well-intentioned
> investment, a lot of the interest focuses on companies/solutions that make
> little ecological sense, or are even detrimental. Without the background
> knowledge, it is easy to be misinformed by persuasive founders who are also
> usually well-intentioned. I can't tell you how many times I've heard
> business leaders say "we need to pick the brains of ocean scientists to
> develop new innovations for the ocean" and my response is always "the ocean
> is super complex compared to business, in my opinion it makes way more
> sense to give marine scientists business tools".
>
> Regarding the value of restoration efforts and investment: I see it as a
> problem-solution-business-location problem. For example, (and as you
> mentioned) artificial reef/habitat solutions receive a lot of buy-in from
> the public, government, investors, etc., including in Canada where we do
> not have shallow coral reefs. In my experience, outside of the very narrow
> conditions where actual coral reefs grow, artificial reef/habitat solutions
> are often sold/used in habitat offsetting when damage has been done
> elsewhere, like an infill or a pier, and the proponent needs to 'replace'
> the biodiversity/biomass that was lost. The buyer is the
> business/organization that did the damage (they have the problem) and the
> artificial reef/habitat company has the solution. The government
> accepts/endorses the artificial habitat as a suitable offset. The
> artificial reef/habitat is then plunked down somewhere, often on a specific
> hardbottom habitat type that can support the weight of it, and then stuff
> grows on it. That's the value, something grows and therefore can quickly
> offset biodiversity/biomass loss from the development (the key is 'quickly'
> so the proponent doesn't get fined for not 'replacing' what was lost).
> Ecologically speaking, many of these sites could be likened to putting a
> landfill in a wetland, where the new habitat attracts new species and
> therefore increases biodiversity/biomass compared to the natural
> diversity/biomass and therefore is "successful" (even though it replaced
> the natural habitat). Painting this type of quick-fix restoration and
> well-designed conservation/restoration with the same brush may not make
> much sense to you or others in this community.
>
> I've been working to try to better define and track success in the
> blue/ocean space, so that activities are accountable and placed on a
> continuum of bad to good that is informed by ecological (and social)
> principles. I believe this will be a prudent way to help investors,
> decision makers, and businesses make informed decisions in the future.
>
> Regarding calling out people/orgs/biz's by name: I don't recommend this. I
> met a scientist that was being sued by an artificial reef/habitat company
> because they published a study that provided evidence that did not support
> their product. Tread carefully.
>
> I'm super keen to see more marine scientists lead the blue/ocean economy
> sectors, so please feel free to reach out to discuss.
>
> Cheers,
> Christine.
>
> On Wed, Apr 20, 2022 at 9:37 AM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> Thanks Steve,
>>
>> I read your post again and sorry, I did not catch the points of agreement
>> you were actually giving.  Thanks- I do appreciate your sentiments.
>>
>> I realized this long ago:  A burned man becomes sensitive, even to the
>> light of the sun!
>>
>> What burns me up the most is Australia and the crazy and bizarre things
>> that are getting extremely very well funded to 'save" the reefs there.
>> Coral planting robots, COTS killing robots, 3-D printed corals to replace
>> those dead, giant fans to cool the reef, cloud brightening, etc. What a
>> big
>> waste and distraction.  Noone wants to mention these white elephants- not
>> even me, so I suppose that I am the real coward.  I also applied to those
>> funds and I was turned down because my ideas were not innovative enough!
>> It looks like the real purpose of these crazy schemes is to distract away
>> from the real issues. I have heard that the fossil fuel industry is firmly
>> attached to the GBR Foundation.
>>
>> https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/great-barrier-reef-foundation-grant-funding-fossil-fuels/
>>
>>
>> I am dismayed by the many restoration practitioners which continue to
>> plant
>> corals in the face of the approaching heat waves- as if the corals were
>> invincible- much like planting trees in the face of an approaching massive
>> firestorm.  I no longer think that this is the time for restoration,
>> rather
>> it is the time to rescue as much biodiversity as possible and secure it in
>> the field where the heat will be less severe.  So we focus on local
>> translocation, knowing that the bleaching resistant corals we are moving
>> into cooler waters have a higher chance of surviving.  Better than
>> watching
>> the corals cook on the hottest nearshore reefs.  It is time to act on this
>> now as it is time sensitive.
>>
>> Vinaka,
>>
>> Austin
>>
>>
>>
>> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> Corals for Conservation
>> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>>
>>
>> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>> https://www.facebook.com/C4Conservation
>> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> <
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> >
>>
>>
>> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>> (679) 938-6437
>> http:/www.
>> <
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >
>> teiteifiji.org
>>
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Apr 20, 2022 at 1:19 AM Steve Mussman <sealab at earthlink.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> > Hi Austin,
>> >
>> >
>> > I am opposed to calling anyone out on list. I’ve done it before, but no
>> > longer believe it is an effective way to affect change. Better to raise
>> > questions about specific policies than to resort to what could be
>> viewed as
>> > an ad hominem attack. To set the record straight, I was actually trying
>> to
>> > be careful not to cast doubt on the entire coral restoration field.
>> Please
>> > read my post again. What I wrote (in response to John Ogden’s post) was
>> > that “some of the most prominent and well-funded projects” are missing
>> out
>> > on what John referred to as a “potent political opportunity” to help
>> build
>> > the consensus needed to pressure national governments to deal
>> effectively
>> > with climate change and other major stressors. Perhaps Les’s point
>> reveals
>> > the essence of our discordance (if there still is any). Commenting that
>> > “reef restoration under the terms described by John Ogden can be very
>> > positive, though it carries the risk of engendering complacency. All
>> > solutions divorced from root causes do”.  For I don’t view restoration
>> as
>> > a solution, but as a tool - and I don’t understand why any restoration
>> > project would choose to divorce or distance itself from root causation.
>> >
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> >
>> > Steve
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On 4/17/22, 10:04 PM, Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > Dear Bill and Steve,
>> >
>> >
>> > Please name the restoration efforts being promoted as quick fix
>> solutions-
>> > if you know of any please point them out!  Here and now- please!  Don't
>> be
>> > shy, or polite- if any org or institution is misleading people by saying
>> > that they have a quick fix solution to coral reef decline that makes
>> > climate action less urgent, single them out, but please don't cast
>> doubt on
>> > the entire coral restoration field.  Even if not intentioned and with
>> your
>> > disclaimers, we have been burned so many times in the past that any
>> heat at
>> > all is excruciating!
>> >
>> >
>> > I have on this list recently called out at least three publications for
>> > reporting on the decimated reefs of Kiribati with a positive twist!
>> They
>> > all celebrated a so-called recovery and/or evidence of adaptation in the
>> > titles, while glossing over the horrific reality of the local
>> extinction of
>> > >200 coral species, and a total community shift on the one 'recovering'
>> > atoll- from Acopora dominated before the 30 months of bleaching over 5
>> > years, to a coral community dominated by Porites rus.  Total species
>> > shift, low biodiversity, and mass extinction of species, and they
>> glossed
>> > it all over!  This amounts to misleading the world that coral reefs
>> will be
>> > able to cope with climate change just fine!  And so now the government
>> of
>> > Kiribati believes that everything is going to be just fine, and
>> > these officials must think I am an alarmist kook!   The scientific
>> > community has failed Kiribati, in spite of it being the leading edge of
>> the
>> > collapse of coral reefs from mass bleaching, with only 5 atolls out of
>> 33
>> > even visited and sampled since their collapse in 2015-16.
>> >
>> >
>> > I am calling some of you on this list out for perpetuating a continuing
>> > and oppressive negative generalization about restoration, as it
>> negatively
>> > impacts some very good work that is vital for the future survival of
>> coral
>> > species and coral reefs.  Please either be specific about a particular
>> > article you read or a specific project, or stop it!   This general
>> > negativism about restoration continues to impact many good efforts that
>> you
>> > may not be aware of.  One example of coral restoration that has been
>> highly
>> > effective is in the Caribbean, where the small efforts in multiple
>> > countries have turned around the near extinction and the multiple local
>> > extinctions of Acropora corals in the wider Caribbean region.  This
>> work is
>> > responsible for a large portion of coral biomass and restored Acropora
>> > breeding populations in the region, and has been highly successful. It
>> has
>> > not been a quick-fix, and because the decline was mostly due to disease
>> and
>> > hurricanes, it does not solve the impacts of climate change, and no one
>> is
>> > saying that it does!
>> >
>> >
>> > Perhaps this sort of negativity is cultural and simply reflects the
>> > pervasive negativity which has become the dominant culture of academia
>> in
>> > the USA? Or perhaps you are referring to what is happening in Florida
>> and
>> > GBR, and the various flashy high tech solutions being proposed and
>> funded
>> > by millions of dollars there?  Please realize that none of our work in
>> the
>> > developing world is along those lines. We have not seen any big funds
>> > either, perhaps because our potential donors are impacted by your
>> > negativity?
>> >
>> >
>> > From my experience doing this for longer than anyone in both the
>> Caribbean
>> > and South Pacific, most restoration in the developing world nations is
>> very
>> > poorly funded, and it is being carried out by small-scale NGOs working
>> with
>> > communities, and on a shoestring as a service to the world, as acts of
>> love
>> > and points of light in a gloomy and depressing time. The goal of most of
>> > these efforts now is to keep declining coral species alive where they
>> are
>> > dying out, and to maintain these species in a healthy and reproductive
>> > condition, knowing that the struggle has just begun, foreseeing a
>> future of
>> > increasing heat waves, and hopefully working on strategies to get the
>> more
>> > heat adapted corals out of the hottest reef areas and into cooler
>> reefs, as
>> > insurance for their future survival.
>> >
>> >
>> > In the less developed world, there has been essentially no coral focused
>> > action by governments, neither by the scientific community, nor by the
>> big
>> > NGOs, with very few exceptions, to secure coral species from decline.
>> Local
>> > people have grown tired of seeing their reefs decline, and they want to
>> do
>> > something about it and to get involved.  Fragments of Hope in Belize:
>> > https://fragmentsofhope.org/  Corals for Conservation in Fiji:
>> > www.corals4conservation.org and the Coral Gardeners in Moorea:
>> > www.coralgardeners.org and many other coral focused organizations have
>> > formed in this vacuum of inaction, and there has been much success in
>> spite
>> > of opposition from "well meaning but misguided" scientists.
>> >
>> >
>> > If you think that coral species and coral reef restoration efforts need
>> > more science, we agree-, so please come help!  Stop criticizing and
>> start
>> > acting!  All those with a "humble attitude of learning" are welcome- the
>> > culture of academic arrogance that sometimes prevails is not part of our
>> > operational culture in the islands. We can offer housing and boat
>> support
>> > in our Fiji sites for seasoned researchers and grad students who are
>> > serious about focusing on the outcomes of facilitated natural recovery
>> and
>> > coral based restoration work.  We have sites in seven Pacific Island
>> > countries so far, but due to a lack of human resources and funds,
>> minimal
>> > science is being conducted alongside the work. We see some amazing
>> results
>> > and natural synergies, but often with only a few photos to back
>> > observations up.
>> >
>> >
>> > It is strikingly clear now that science will not save the planet- people
>> > will save the planet, and only some of those people will be scientists.
>> > All of the amazing work that coral reef scientists have done and are
>> doing
>> > on coral reefs, all the incredible diverse species and amazing
>> > relationships, now stand gravely threatened, and so all of this
>> collection
>> > of information, should corals and coral reefs become extinct, will
>> become
>> > rather useless paleontology.  We will only know what was lost.  We are
>> on
>> > the leading edge of the planetary collapse and 6th extinction- why do we
>> > pretend that everything is normal?
>> >
>> >
>> > In our coral reef adaptation/ restoration sites, we are operating with
>> > mostly unpublished yet so far highly effective strategies and methods.
>> Now
>> > in partnership with the Coral Gardeners and others for a regional youth
>> > focused strategy, we are refocusing to empower island kids to save coral
>> > species from dying out in their reefs over the next 30-50 years,
>> providing
>> > the strategies, tools, training and hopefully materials and funds that
>> they
>> > need for effectiveness. Translocation of corals from hot to cooler
>> reefs is
>> > just one of five adaptation strategies, which are frankly more
>> adaptation
>> > focused than restoration focused at this critical time in history:
>> > https://reefresilience.org/case-studies/south-pacific-restoration/
>> >
>> >
>> > Thanks for listening,
>> >
>> >
>> > Austin
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> >
>> > Corals for Conservation
>> >
>> > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>> >
>> > https://www.corals4conservation.org
>> >
>> > https://www.facebook.com/C4Conservation
>> >
>> > TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> > <
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>> >
>> > Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>> >
>> > (679) 938-6437
>> >
>> > http:/www.
>> > <
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >
>> > teiteifiji.org
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On Thu, Apr 14, 2022 at 12:30 AM Steve Mussman via Coral-List <
>> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > Bill, you have clearly pointed out an inconvenient aspect of all this
>> that
>> > many here would prefer to avoid.
>> >
>> >
>> > Although there are a number of restoration efforts worthy of praise that
>> > nobly fulfill John’s expectations, some of the most prominent and
>> > well-funded projects have chosen instead to strategically avoid placing
>> due
>> > emphasis on the imperative need to address climate change and other
>> major
>> > stressors. Until this changes, I’m afraid we will continue to miss out
>> on
>> > what could be a “potent political opportunity” to utilize perhaps the
>> most
>> > visible aspect of the coral sciences to bring about much needed change.
>> >
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> >
>> >
>> > Steve
>> >
>> >
>> > On 4/12/22, 7:51 AM, Bill Allison via Coral-List <
>> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > "... reef restoration programs acting in concert provide a potent
>> >
>> >
>> > political opportunity to influence their national governments to support
>> >
>> >
>> > the UN-based global efforts to control greenhouse gases and other
>> factors
>> >
>> >
>> > inimical to the survival of coral reefs."
>> >
>> >
>> > OR
>> >
>> >
>> > "reef restoration programs" masquerading as a solution provide a
>> rationale
>> >
>> >
>> > for kicking the addressing-causes-can down the road.
>> >
>> >
>> > "cheers"
>> >
>> >
>> > Bill
>> >
>> >
>> > On Tue, Apr 12, 2022 at 6:59 AM John Ogden via Coral-List <
>> >
>> >
>> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> > > Dear Friends on Coral-List,
>> >
>> >
>> > >
>> >
>> >
>> > > The good news that Austin Bowden-Kirby highlights in his recent post
>> >
>> >
>> > > concerns the global growth surge in reef restoration schemes and
>> programs
>> >
>> >
>> > > and shows clearly that people care about coral reefs and are
>> unwilling to
>> >
>> >
>> > > wait for government to act and watch them die without trying to do
>> >
>> >
>> > > something to help. This kind of hands-on volunteerism is too rare and
>> >
>> >
>> > > important not to take full advantage of on the political stage. In my
>> >
>> >
>> > > opinion Coral Gardeners and other reef restoration programs acting in
>> >
>> >
>> > > concert provide a potent political opportunity to influence their
>> > national
>> >
>> >
>> > > governments to support the UN-based global efforts to control
>> greenhouse
>> >
>> >
>> > > gases and other factors inimical to the survival of coral reefs.
>> >
>> >
>> > _______________________________________________
>> >
>> > Coral-List mailing list
>> >
>> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >
>> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >
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