[Coral-List] coral bleaching

[Austin Bowden-Kerby]

Hi again Gene,

In this day and age a skeptical mind is good to have, and we are trained to
be skeptical as scientists, using the often mentioned ''precautionary
principle of science''.
This would normally operate in simple terms as "innocent until proven
guilty'', preliminary data, not good enough, which is eventually replaced
by good hard data and shown to be replicable before drawing any hard
conclusions.   However, with endangered species or an existential threat,
the precautionary principle of science gets turned on its head, ''guilty
until proven innocent", even if the data is incomplete as long as it mostly
points in a particular direction.

However with that said, this data is done and dusted!  The tests you
mention have already been carried out.  The CO2 levels as measured at the
South Pole are given here.
https://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-co2-400-ppm-million-years-20451
The measurements very much agree with the Mount Kilauea measurements.  The
planet has not had 400ppm levels this high for over four million years.

It is pretty amazing how much data is available on the internet!  Will
wonders never cease!
If I can change my mental models, anyone can... well I am still a kid
compared to you I suppose - 67 years young!

Regards,

Austin


Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
https://www.corals4conservation.org
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>



On Fri, Apr 22, 2022 at 10:03 AM Eugene Shinn via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Hi Austin, Thank you for being so polite. I examined the NOAA site
>
> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide
> <
> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide>
>
> that you posted and found some problems. The figure showing 800,000
> years of temperature data based on CO2 in bubbles in ice cores has been
> around for a few years. What always catches my eye is the even spacing
> of the temperature spikes beginning with the one that starts at 400,000
> in the graph. The even spacing appears the same as the one still forming
> today. If the first four are caused by wiggles in Earth’s orbit as
> stated in the website then the present one was also caused by wiggles in
> the orbit. That makes sense because it begins more than 10,000 years ago
> long before there were automobiles, power plants etc etc. Also, its peak
> is about the same as the preceding four peaks. The 412.5 ppm at end of
> dashed red line is not from CO2 in bubbles but from the air above the
> Hawaiian volcanic peak where measurements have been made since 1958. If
> I did not know, I might wonder if there was a similar CO2 high above the
> other four temperature peaks. (We have no way of knowing) I have long
> wondered why no one has taken a short 1 or 2-ft long core from the
> surface where the deep cores are taken to see if the CO2 in the bubbles
> near the surface do in fact match the CO2 level in the air above the
> snow/ice? It would be a good test to see if the data from bubbles in the
> deep cores do actually reflect atmospheric CO2 levels. It would be a
> simple thing to do. It would help determine if the data from the bubbles
> are actually correct. I think the figure as it is would be very
> misleading to the average non scientist person/tax payer. I might also
> mention that most of the cores we have taken in the Florida Keys contain
> a redish-brown soil stone/caliche layer capping each of the four peaks
> in the ice core record. There is also an identical layer capping the
> surface throughout the Florida Keys which demonstrates how the layers in
> the subsurface were likely formed. Carbon 14 age dating has shown the
> surface layer in the Keys is still forming. The redish/brown color is
> caused by iron and clay minerals deposited from the atmosphere/African
> dust.
>
> The photos of two Pterapod aragonitic shells also caught my attention.
> The one on the left does in fact show the effect of CO2 dissolution
> which can happen when the shell sinks into deep cold water that contain
> more CO2 than warm surface water. There have also been lab experiments
> in which Pterapod shells were placed in water artificially acidified by
> adding CO2. The one shown here was likely created that way. (Google:
> Pteropod shell experiment). My suspicion is that this website was
> prepared for members of congress and or the average citizen to show the
> potential dangers of elevated CO2 levels that might occur in the future.
> Thanks for bringing this to my attention. Gene
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