[Coral-List] what does this new analysis tell us???
Douglas Fenner
douglasfennertassi at gmail.com
Wed Feb 9 04:04:16 UTC 2022
Well said, Austin, I agree!! The analogy is good. What I've been saying is
the global coral ship has been doing better on the sea than we thought.
BUT we have all this info on the iceberg up ahead, we have been
procrastinating for decades. I recently watched a Youtube video of Carl
Sagan testifying in front of US Congress in 1985 about climate change,
explaining it in calm, easy to understand language, based on the info that
is now so familiar, the basics were known way back then, before many on
this were even born perhaps. Clear warning. And what did we do?? It was
made into a political football and deniers basically were successful at
keeping us from doing anything. Plus it was going to cost big bucks.
Never mind that inaction will cost vastly more, and now we barely have time
to keep ourselves alive. I read that in Kuwait, birds that can't find
shade are dying on roof tops from the heat, stray cats are near death. And
clearly if the power goes off the air conditioning stops and humans there
are hours or less from misery and perhaps days from death.
As you correctly say, this is unprecedented, and the past is no guide
to the future, we are in entirely new territory, and for coral reefs it is
terrifying indeed.
Reefs provide huge benefits to humans, billions of dollars of
benefits, food for hundreds of millions of people. If someone has a
million dollar investment, and they have to spend something to save it,
would they only be willing to pay $100 to save a million???? Not if they
know what they're doing, that's peanuts. Peanuts is what the world society
has been willing to invest in saving reefs worth many billions of dollars
and even more importantly, at least a hundred million lives. That's just
plain stupid, shooting yourself in the foot. Mind you, at the moment we
have a few crises like the pandemic under way. But with a little bit of
luck that won't last much longer on the broader scale of things. And COP
26, whatever else it did, got the world's attention. Now we hold their
feet to the fire and get action. Greta Tundburg was right, action counts,
talk doesn't. National commitments are still inadequate, widely
acknowledged, countries have not been fulfilling their commitments, and
time is running short, the iceberg is just ahead.
Carl Sagan testifying: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI&t=82s
Cheers, Doug
On Tue, Feb 8, 2022 at 3:44 PM Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
wrote:
> Doug and also Gene, Alina, Phillip, and Steve (in a related thread),
> Interesting discussions and also very interesting and weighty publications
> you have shared.
>
> As far as the big picture, I think that most, or all of us agree- coral
> reefs and hundreds of coral species are threatened with extinction due to
> climate change. However, the difference is in perceived urgency- if coral
> reefs do have more time, then we have more time to act. But what if the
> more dire reports and predictions are the correct ones? And certainly time
> has already run out for some areas.
>
> This discussion and these conflicting published reports sound a bit like
> scientists on the deck of the Titanic- and with the iceberg in full view,
> they are focusing on differing calculations regarding the estimated time of
> impact of the ship, but the the impact is inevitable- and no discussions
> will stop it, even though it may make people feel that something is being
> done- while in fact nothing is! These discussions all amount to how much
> time we have before impact. Isn't it best to assume the worst-case scenario
> as the most precautionary approach, for those on deck to skip lunch and
> their customary afternoon nap, and to get busy building life rafts - even
> if out of the deck chairs and floor boards? For the coral reefs, does 30,
> 100, or even 300 years make any difference at all to the ultimate fate of
> the corals, when extinction is forever, and when 2.4C may well be our new
> scenario? Some reefs have already hit the climate berg- they have
> collapsed and are not recovering and they appear to be mostly forgotten,
> not being part of the Reef Check database (Glibert Islands, Phoenix
> Islands, Line Islands, Chagos, etc). This is the front line of what is
> expected by all published reports to become a widespread planetary
> collapse- and so these frontline reefs contain vital information that we
> need in order to defeat the enemy.
>
> As long as connectivity exists and some healthy coral populations continue
> to reproduce, coral recovery can and will happen, and that will keep
> the coral reefs alive. Wonderful for now, but what will happen in future
> scenarios, when major heat waves become an annual occurrence or even
> semi-permanent, like what has happened in Kiribati, or when upcurrent
> larval sources are non-existent, like in Guam and the Marianas and much of
> Kiribati as well? Certainly some recovery may happen, but will it be at
> the expense of Acropora and favoring Pocillopora and Porites? A cascading
> phase shift in coral species dominance seems to be in progress, but this
> phase shift is not recorded in the GCRMN reports because they do not
> distinguish between genera. This phase shift is instead reported as an
> increase in coral cover = a good thing, rather than such "recovery" being a
> descent into an alternative steady state system, where less diverse and
> poor habitat forming coral species occupy settlement surfaces that will
> keep the former species out, should their reproduction be restored.
>
> From the perspective of questioning the future of individual coral species
> and their extinction risk, I believe that the Caribbean shows us a window
> into the future of the IndoPacific. For Acropora cervicornis at least, even
> though the major decline in abundance was disease-related, it showed us
> that when a formerly abundant coral species becomes highly fragmented, and
> when surviving patches were mostly of a single genet, that the species can
> become reproductively extinct, with coral larvae no longer being produced
> in enough abundance to counteract predation rates, so the species slides
> into oblivion, unless assisted by active restoration.
>
> Am I just another person sitting on the deck watching the approaching
> iceberg discussing what to do? Never mind estimating more precisely how
> much time we might have- I can hear the engine revving up, as the people
> who control the engine are speeding the ship up, not slowing it down! Over
> half the man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been produced since
> 1992!, and it is being belched out even faster with each passing year! Not
> a single treaty has slowed its production, we have been duped- we celebrate
> a slowing in the RATE of acceleration, but the acceleration still
> increases. And with this acceleration, how can anything based on past data
> of recovery and resilience at much lower stress levels be our primary guide
> to what is coming? We have entered entirely new waters! So, like with
> cyclone preparations, we must assume the worst case scenario, and act from
> that perspective, because this is indeed a deadly super cyclone heading
> right for our precious home and our loved ones!
>
> Back to the Titanic.... can we focus on agreeing that the ship is going to
> hit full on, and that we must get very busy right NOW? Some of us have
> started assembling lifeboats out of whatever we can scrounge, and we hope
> that others will join us, or at least help by passing over some of the
> extensive resources that they are holding? The lifeboats are strategies
> designed to save the corals as the ship hits the climate berg. This is not
> the time to retire to our cabins to take a nap, no matter how sweet that
> would be, the planet needs us- can we please get all hands on deck?
>
> The problem is that there are, for the most part, no strategic plans, no
> generals and no boot camps, so an all hands on deck plea might at this
> point result in mostly confusion. For starters, maybe each of us can rally
> around whatever efforts are near or dear to us personally- anything is
> better than nothing, support what we find seems most hopeful: financially,
> scientifically/academically, administratively, as a volunteer, etc. And
> then, with vastly more support, any effort that is not very effective will
> quickly become apparent, and the more effective strategies will begin to
> shine, develop, and evolve.
>
> Here are some suggested objectives and strategies that Corals for
> Conservation is using to launch our own battles on climate driven coral
> reef collapse, that others might also become involved with.
> 1. Work to keep coral species from going locally extinct in the wild, and
> in a genetically diverse state over at least the next 50+ years.
> 2. Work to better understand the process of bleaching-driven coral reef
> collapse on the front line non recovering reefs, with the aim of reversing
> the situation and restoring these lost reefs.
> 3. Work to increase the bleaching resistance and disease resistance of
> corals through translocation of corals locally from nearshore stressed
> reefs where temperatures are expected to get too hot for their long term
> survival, to cooler outer reefs, where temperatures are expected to remain
> under the higher bleaching threshold of the translocated corals for the
> next several decades at least.
> 4. Focus restoration and translocation efforts on the creation of sexually
> reproductive coral populations that are viable and diverse in key
> up-current areas, producing coral larvae to help stimulate the recovery of
> the wider reef system.
> 5. Include the above efforts and more within no-take and cleaner reef
> areas where possible, and use the strategies to enhance existing MPA
> management based strategies.
> 6. Etc...
>
> Multiple strategies might be developed for each objective, and teams of
> scientists and volunteers should work together between regions and nations,
> conducting experimental trials designed to ask and answer key questions,
> and thereby coming up with new solutions and new strategies. Most of the
> proposed strategies are based on seat of the pants logic and therefore lack
> much scientific data, so they could make important points for research by
> graduates students.
>
> Limited funding, national boundaries, and intellectual protectionism must
> not continue to be primary limiting factors. And of course, we must also
> work to deprive the enemy of its weapons: carbon and methane.
>
> Any strategy along the lines of the above could in time transform into a
> war- with generals and sergeants, troops, battle plans, weapons, and
> ammunition that are effective at beating the enemy and preventing the
> collapse of coral reefs due to climate change. We can win this war, but
> only if we come together to wage that war! If you have read this far, it
> might be time for a nap- LOL!
>
> All hands on deck!
>
> Kind regards,
>
> Austin
>
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> <https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 9, 2022 at 9:14 AM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> Forgot the reference: Roff, G. and Mumby, P. J. 2012. Global disparity
>> in
>> the resilience of coral reefs. Trends in
>>
>> Ecology and Evolution 27: 404-419.
>>
>>
>> And a reminder of the AIMS monitoring report:
>> https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2020-2021
>> (scroll down to the line graphs of coral cover over time for the north,
>> central, and southern GBR)
>>
>> On Tue, Feb 8, 2022 at 8:53 AM Douglas Fenner <
>> douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> > Yes, but both of these studies are based on the quantitative
>> > results of 10's of thousands of reef monitoring or surveying sites. The
>> > people who did those studies did NOT make that data up. That's one
>> thing
>> > for sure. The data was real. And we can choose to ignore it if it
>> doesn't
>> > fit with our life experiences, or we can try to deal with it. I think
>> we
>> > need to try to deal with it.
>> > One of the things I've thought of sometimes when Gene is telling
>> us
>> > about Florida reefs, is that although I have absolutely NO doubt he's
>> > telling us the truth, and it is good to be reminded, Florida is not the
>> > world, and the reefs there, if anything, in their construction, are
>> unusual
>> > for coral reefs around the world. They're not like an atoll (the world
>> has
>> > about 400 atolls), the living parts are usually called the "Florida Reef
>> > Tract" presumably in part because they don't look like a lot of other
>> > reefs. As far as I know, the areas that have living coral are tiny
>> patch
>> > reefs.
>> > The Caribbean has been the site of probably more research per sq
>> km
>> > of reef than most anywhere else in the world. The western Atlantic has
>> a
>> > set of species that is virtually unique in the world, very few fish
>> species
>> > and no known native reef coral species are in common with the
>> > Indo-Pacific. And now it turns out, it may not be representative of the
>> > rest of the reefs of the world.
>> > Notice that all your memories but one that you quote are from the
>> western
>> > Atlantic, the Caribbean and Florida. Remember Mike Risk pointing to the
>> > paper from Indonesia which reported on a lava flow, which incinerated
>> > anything alive it hit and produced a whole new surface. If I remember,
>> > within 6 years, it had a thriving coral reef ecosystem with lots of
>> coral
>> > cover. I've read people writing that the Coral Triangle is going down
>> hill
>> > steeply. That doesn't fit with my experience in the Philippines at
>> about
>> > 200 dive sites. Granted, I've always thought that people there showed
>> me
>> > the best sites, I do not claim they were randomly chosen or
>> > representative. And I haven't been back for about 15 years or so. But
>> > those sites showed no signs of the degradation that is apparent
>> virtually
>> > everywhere in the Caribbean (Cozumel, Mexico, one of my old haunts, has
>> > probably degraded less than most in the Caribbean, Tom Goreau tells me
>> it
>> > has lost some coral cover which has largely been replaced with
>> sponge). In
>> > the Philippines, one place I saw early on, there was nothing but dead
>> coral
>> > rubble. I asked the resort dive people and they said a typhoon
>> destroyed
>> > it. I came back 11 years later, and couldn't find it, until I realized
>> > that the mass of near 100% glorious, diverse, coral cover in front of my
>> > nose was it. It had completely recovered. The AIMS monitoring results
>> > show the same effect, on a vastly greater scale, and quantitatively.
>> > Please look at those graphs, and see the radical loss of coral cover
>> that
>> > had all of us scared to death. And notice that the coral cover
>> completely
>> > recovered. That is completely unlike any location in the Caribbean.
>> > Discovery Bay, Jamaica, over 40 years after it lost its coral cover,
>> still
>> > hasn't recovered.
>> > A review by Roff and Mumby put their finger on it. The western
>> > Atlantic has far less resilience than the Indo-Pacific. Reference
>> below.
>> > They try to figure out why, and the why may still be an open question.
>> But
>> > the evidence is that the Caribbean and Florida have not recovered, yet
>> in
>> > the Indo-Pacific, often reefs do recover. And there have always been
>> > plenty of natural disturbances, the clearest example being cyclones,
>> > typhoons and hurricanes (basically the same thing except which way they
>> > rotate differs north and south of the equator). These cyclonic storms
>> have
>> > been happening for time immemorial, surely much longer than coral reefs
>> > have existed, probably at least a couple billion years. They can
>> > completely flatten coral reefs, and they do that some reefs somewhere
>> every
>> > year. Yet coral reefs are still here. How can that be?? Coral reefs
>> can
>> > recover from them. Coral reefs are dynamic instead of static, they are
>> > continually in recovery from one thing or another. But most natural
>> > disturbances are brief and allow time for recovery, human disturbance,
>> like
>> > sedimentation, nutrients, overfishing, are continuous, no time for
>> > recovery. Caribbean reefs have lost that ability to recover,
>> Indo-Pacific
>> > reefs have largely not. My impression is that some reefs in the Indian
>> > Ocean have recovered from the 1998 El Nino mass bleaching, but others
>> have
>> > not. So it isn't universal. But the new graphs of world coral cover
>> tell
>> > us that lots of reefs have been able to recover enough that world coral
>> > cover has been roughly steady at about 30% for decades. Surprising,
>> yes.
>> > Live and learn.
>> > The world in some ways is now a small place, humans are now well
>> > into the process of destroying SO much of it, not only on land but in
>> the
>> > oceans and even the atmosphere. That is undeniable. But this new
>> evidence
>> > may (may) indicate less corals have been lost that we often think. What
>> > the original coral cover was like, IMHO (in my humble opinion) is not
>> > really well established, there was far too few early studies. Fact is,
>> if
>> > you go diving and collect data, you can only cover a tiny area. There
>> are
>> > loads of reefs in the oceans out there that have received little or no
>> > research, and almost all of those are in the Indo-Pacific, because it is
>> > gigantic, even though coral reefs are a tiny proportion of the world
>> > oceans. No one person has seen a majority of the world's coral reefs,
>> and
>> > only a few have seen a large number of them, my guess is people like
>> Jack
>> > Randall and Charlie Veron may have seen the most, I'm certainly not
>> among
>> > them, though I've seen some. So the rest of us have necessarily seen a
>> > very unrepresentative sample of the world's coral reefs.
>> > More powerful that the graphs of the world's coral reefs I think,
>> > are the AIMS monitoring records of the Great Barrier Reef, itself not a
>> > small place. And those records clearly show that huge loss of cover
>> > followed by its recovery. It does not document any changes or
>> stability in
>> > community composition, no one claims that. But it shows that the
>> reports
>> > of the GBR being half dead, are from a past snapshot in time, and no
>> longer
>> > true. It has come back, Phoenix-like, from half dead (not by individual
>> > corals coming back to life but the birth and growth of new individual
>> > corals). That is the reality, I don't know anyone who disputes it.
>> Nobody
>> > has better data on the course over time of the corals on the GBR, as
>> far as
>> > I know, and it is plain for all to see.
>> > That appears to be the reality, and I think we need to reflect
>> > that. Which means we need to do a better job of making what we say
>> reflect
>> > reality. I think. Yes it is disconcerting to have our world view
>> > challenged. So goes science and life. Mountains of data challenge the
>> > views of those who said there was no global warming. Mountains of data
>> > challenge the views of those who say there is no evolution, that God
>> made
>> > earth and the life on it exactly as it is today. Mountains of data
>> > challenge the view the earth is flat. Maybe, just maybe, one of our
>> more
>> > cherished views, will need revision. The Great Barrier Reef and the
>> > Indo-Pacific corals are not dead.
>> > What happens in the future to coral reefs is quite disconnected
>> to
>> > what has already happened. But the Caribbean and Florida are surely a
>> > window into what the future for the rest of the world's reefs are going
>> to
>> > experience in the next 20-30 years, by all accounts. The fact that not
>> all
>> > the reefs are already dead does not prove that corals will be just fine
>> in
>> > the future. And all the many observations and measurements documenting
>> the
>> > demise of reefs are real. Though some like those on the Great Barrier
>> > Reef, may turn out to be followed by at least temporary recovery. Our
>> > problem is that the places we have personally seen, and the places we
>> have
>> > studied most, are not either representative or a random sample of the
>> > world's reefs, and so the very real info we have about the decline of
>> > individual reefs is not totally representative of the world's reefs.
>> The
>> > data from the GBR appears to me to prove that, the world data now
>> suggests
>> > it.
>> > So we live and learn. Cheers, Doug
>> >
>> > On Tue, Feb 8, 2022 at 7:04 AM Phillip Dustan via Coral-List <
>> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Dear Listers,
>> >> Coral monitoring began using transects that we first used to
>> understand
>> >> the distribution of corals on reefs. Scientists found that corals grow
>> in
>> >> patches dictated by the prevailing environmental conditions. These
>> patches
>> >> were frequently expressed as long bands or groves dominated by a few
>> >> species that ran parallel to the shoreline or perpendicular to the
>> >> prevailing seas. Tom Goreau's Ecology of West Indian Coral Reefs 1:
>> >> Species Composition and Zonation as well as Pacific accounts by the
>> likes
>> >> of John Wells and others pointed this out beautifully. Coral cover in
>> >> some
>> >> zones was, and still may be, very high approaching 100% but it depends
>> on
>> >> the methodology. Does one count the intercolony spaces between Acropora
>> >> palmata branches or foliose Agaricia plates? This was the great
>> debate of
>> >> the 1970-80's, "How best to measure coral cover"- lines, points,
>> chains,
>> >> photos, quadrats,........the quest was on for the ultimate measure.
>> Some
>> >> of us revisited out old study sites to look for change out of
>> curiosity.
>> >> Then, reefs began to die and coral monitoring became the mantra-
>> Monitor
>> >> reefs for conservation. Reef monitoring EXPLODED! In some places it
>> >> became institutionalized. Fixed vs "random" sampling was the new
>> dilemma;
>> >> How many transects, photos, points- the search was on again for the
>> >> "ultimate" measure.
>> >> All the while reefs were winking out episodically. A rash of
>> disease, or
>> >> mass bleaching event would strike and coral cover would drop
>> accordingly.
>> >> Corals would regrow is the interval between acute stress was long
>> enough.
>> >> All the while though, oter factors continued to "eat away" are live
>> >> corals.
>> >> In places where I have remeasured the same reef, I have witnessed
>> losses
>> >> of
>> >> over 90% in the Florida Keys where the zones were richly covered. On
>> >> Dancing Lady Reef in Discovery Bay, Jamaica, the cover of Orbicella
>> spp
>> >> on
>> >> the fore reef slope dropped from over 50% to less than 10 and from
>> +25% to
>> >> near 0% on the fore reef terrace (
>> >> https://biospherefoundation.org/project/coral-reef-change/). This was
>> >> just
>> >> a single species and the reef was heavily covered with other species.
>> My
>> >> studies in NW Bali, Indonesia revealed a 44% loss from a single
>> bleaching
>> >> event as measured with repeat transects. The Bahamas yielded similar
>> >> results due to bleaching combined with hurricanes. OVerall, the Florida
>> >> Keys has lost over 38% cover since 1996 using repeated marked video
>> >> transects.. My point is that these studies are all with repeated
>> measure
>> >> methods and they all reveal the same ecological slide into loss of
>> >> ecological integrity. Detecting change is not the same as tabulating
>> >> coral
>> >> cover.
>> >> A number of years ago I asked Listers if there were any healthy
>> reefs
>> >> in the Caribbean. It generated a raft of replies, but none positive.
>> Maybe
>> >> a few were missed and there are whole expeditions roaming the seas
>> looking
>> >> for healthy reefs now so they can be "protected". And liveaboard dive
>> >> boats
>> >> roam ply the tropics promising pristine adventures on ever increasingly
>> >> more remote reefs (which are running out). Coral reefs are tough.
>> They
>> >> used to be hard to kill by natural means, but humans are a different
>> >> story.
>> >> Until we deal with how humanity integrates itself into the Biosphere,
>> no
>> >> reef or any other natural habitat for that matter, will be safe from
>> >> humanity's global reach of destruction.
>> >> We may be making a few tenuous steps in the right direction but you
>> just
>> >> can't put a happy face on any of this......
>> >> Phil
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 7:00 PM Eugene Shinn via Coral-List <
>> >> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> > I agree with Alina Szmant's comments. I began diving in the Florida
>> Keys
>> >> > in the 1950s. Also visited many Caribbean reefs in the 1980s and
>> 1990s.
>> >> > All I saw was reefs going down hill after 1983 including those at San
>> >> > Salvador which is located well east of the Main Bahama banks reefs.
>> See
>> >> > a portion of the dying Florida reefs
>> >> > here:<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnIzLTi0HGs
>> >> > <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnIzLTi0HGs>> Eugene Shinn
>> >> >
>> >> > _______________________________________________
>> >> > Coral-List mailing list
>> >> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> --
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Phillip Dustan PhD
>> >> Charleston SC 29424
>> >> 843-953-8086 office
>> >> 843-224-3321 (mobile)
>> >>
>> >> "When we try to pick out anything by itself
>> >> we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
>> >> that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
>> >> * John Muir 1869*
>> >>
>> >> *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
>> >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
>> >> *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
>> >>
>> >>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
>> >> *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
>> >>
>> >> *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
>> >> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
>> >> TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
>> >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
>> >> Google Scholar Citations:
>> >> https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
>> >> _______________________________________________
>> >> Coral-List mailing list
>> >> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >>
>> >
>> _______________________________________________
>> Coral-List mailing list
>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>
>
More information about the Coral-List
mailing list