[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Paul Muir]

Steve,
Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017, 2021
(1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?

BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here, I had
a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was appalling how
little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
corals around the world. We probably have already lost several species and
don't even know it.

refs
1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353

PAUL MUIR
Independent Private Consultant



On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi <spalumbi at stanford.edu> wrote:

> Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were already
> corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that change the
> tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed the
> adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is there to
> support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you knew they
> were there, what would you do with that information? What would the local
> conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test these
> corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
>
> Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
> resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we have
> the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe it is
> only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save as
> much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100 years to
> grow back from, how do we do this?
>
> Steve
>
> *******************************************
> Stephen Palumbi
> Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
> microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
>
> On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat as a
> function of latitude,  Benthic surface area within the photic zone
> decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes, and the
> areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are mostly
> the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
> suitable as reef substrates.
>
> Bob Buddemeier
>
> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also  have
> very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
> latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to support
> that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
> actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing human
> impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
> species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g. Muir et
> al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016, Frontiers of
> Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little work been
> done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!! There’s
> also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction from
> repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
> little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic bullets:
> drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while the
> basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology seems
> to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
>
> Paul Muir
>
> Refs
> Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> Madin et al 2016
> - Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> 8(1)
> response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> 8(4)
>
>
>
> On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> Hello all,
> I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
> trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
>
> suppose
>
> there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
> gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
>
> telling
>
> the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
>
> conservation
>
> efforts.
>
> But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
> In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
> would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome?
>
> At
>
> what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
>
> expansion
>
> is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
> actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
> happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
> genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and
>
> on
>
> reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
>
> working
>
> authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by
>
> we
>
> I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of
>
> it,
>
> achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
> buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
> (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty
>
> dire
>
> backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless
>
> we
>
> look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
>
> part
>
> we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
> angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
> to do, but an imperative.
> In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> Nicole
>
> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> STEVE:
>
> I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
>
> moment, I
>
> will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
>
> pollution
>
> and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
>
> not
>
> just as important.
>
> If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
>
> realize
>
> that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
>
> will
>
> increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
>
> scenario
>
> it
>
> is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
>
> increasing
>
> impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
>
> addition
>
>
> Denny
>
> On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>
>
> Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
>
> We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
>
> decade
>
> (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
>
> levels
>
> (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
>
> and
>
> 2026
>
> exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
>
> five
>
> year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
>
> (2017-2021)
>
> is
>
> also 93%.
>
> So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
>
> that
>
> 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
>
> science
>
> community react?
>
> This paper (
>
>
>
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
>
> suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
>
> migration
>
> is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
>
> any
>
> debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
>
> to
>
> communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
>
> new
>
> approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
>
> the
>
> truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
>
> far
>
> until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
>
> and
>
> depend on it for our survival”.
>
> Regards,
>
> Steve Mussman
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
>
>
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>
>
>
>
> --
> Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> Oberlin OH 44074
> (440) 935-4014
>
> * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
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>
>
> --
> Nicole L. Crane
> Faculty, Cabrillo College
> Natural and Applied Sciences
> www.cabrillo.edu
>
>
> Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> One People One Reef
> onepeopleonereef.org
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