[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

Mon Nov 7 20:47:38 UTC 2022

I forgot to say that in Hawaii, the idea of an "ark" to save coral species
is alive and well in public aquaria and a state of Hawaii coral growing
facility.  Between them, they have nearly all Hawaiian coral species in
culture in captivity.  Alive and well and protected.  Of course, Hawaii
only has a tiny fraction of the world's coral diversity.
Cheers, Doug

On Mon, Nov 7, 2022 at 2:52 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Austin,
> That sounds very grim- we really are at the "Noah's Ark" point where we
> need a "coral bank" of cryopreserved gametes/embryos from endangered
> species/regional populations as a last resort?  Although we don't have data
> as to which species are most at risk and the cryo is not fully worked out
> for many (any?) coral species yet- but cryo techniques do exist for a very
> wide range of other groups.
>
> Have you considered creating small refuge areas to preserve certain
> species/populations during the bleaching events? Natural shading provides
> good bleaching protection across a wide range of species (e.g. Muir et al
> 2017), so in theory floating covers similar to those used on agricultural
> and mining dams could be used to shade small (~1 ha) areas of reef just
> during peak bleaching conditions. Bleaching events are typically very calm,
> so the covers could be rolled out from dinghies in a semi-protected area of
> reef for just a couple of weeks during the peak. The covers would need to
> be anchored at each corner and possibly have an inflated margin
> (engineering TBD). The fabric is cheap, very tough and light, can be heat
> welded or sewn and is used by the square km in commercial greenhouses
> around the world (e.g. SolaWeave). Such a refuge area could mitigate
> against species extinctions and act as a reseeding area to enable timely
> recovery of the surrounding reef area. Colonies of the rarest species could
> be moved into the designated area ahead of time (once the idea is tested!).
> Seems like an idea worth testing, but to my knowledge despite all the nutty
> engineering and high tech schemes being funded at huge expense, this one
> has never been trialed? Way too cheap and unsexy- perhaps if we propose a
> nanofabric 3D printed under AI control........
>
> PAUL MUIR
> Independent Consultant
>
> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 at 10:34 pm, Austin Bowden-Kerby <
> abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Steve and Paul,
> >
> > For Kiribati, the hot pocket "super corals" of the shallow lagoon on
> > Christmas (Kiritimati) Atoll all died out in the 2015-16 bleaching,
> > even though they were bleaching resistant, the water apparently got
> > just too hot.  The very few Acropora survivors have all been from
> > moderately warm reef flat tide pools, and only very few have been
> > found:  just two or three genotypes of only four Acropora species
> > surviving on Kiritimati Atoll, and another three species on Tabuaeran
> > Atoll.
> >
> > Because of this tragedy in Kiribati, we acutely recognize the
> > possibility that a severe mass bleaching may one day wipe out our most
> > heat adapted coral populations in our Fiji sites.  So our focus now is
> > to identify bleaching resistant coral candidates within hot pocket
> > reefs- reefs that often reach 33, 34, 35 and even as high as 37 in
> > places during summer.   Then we move samples of these corals out and
> > into cooler nurseries to protect them from possible death, should a
> > strong bleaching event hit, because they are at their upper limit.
> > Who knows how hot the reefs will get once the background water
> > temperature gets too high?   We have deployed temperature loggers and
> > we keep searching for more candidates, as we prepare for the
> > inevitable.
> >
> > This local translocation is under 10km, and serves to secure many
> > species and genotypes of "super coral candidates" of the most
> > vulnerable coral genus, Acropora.  Now that they are secure, we can
> > take our time figuring out how resistant the corals actually are.  And
> > because they come from rather yucky nearshore waters, we also suspect
> > that some are disease resistant as well.
> >
> > We are starting up a second site now about 160km distant, as we feel
> > that the clock is ticking for the hot pocket corals.  We hope that
> > others who work on reefs with strong thermal gradients and with intact
> > hot pocket coral populations, will consider this strategy.   The time
> > has arrived for proactive hands-on coral focused climate change
> > adaptation!
> >
> > Kind Regards,
> >
> > Austin
> >
> >
> > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> > Corals for Conservation
> > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> > https://www.corals4conservation.org
> > 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
> > https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
> > TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
> >
> >
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 1:35 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List
> > <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > >
> > > Steve,
> > > Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
> > > bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
> > > species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017,
> 2021
> > > (1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?
> > >
> > > BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here, I
> > had
> > > a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was appalling
> > how
> > > little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
> > > corals around the world. We probably have already lost several species
> > and
> > > don't even know it.
> > >
> > > refs
> > > 1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
> > > 2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353
> > >
> > > PAUL MUIR
> > > Independent Private Consultant
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi <spalumbi at stanford.edu>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were
> > already
> > > > corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that
> change
> > the
> > > > tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed
> > the
> > > > adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is
> > there to
> > > > support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you
> knew
> > they
> > > > were there, what would you do with that information? What would the
> > local
> > > > conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test
> > these
> > > > corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
> > > >
> > > > Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
> > > > resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we
> > have
> > > > the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe
> > it is
> > > > only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save
> > as
> > > > much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100
> > years to
> > > > grow back from, how do we do this?
> > > >
> > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > > *******************************************
> > > > Stephen Palumbi
> > > > Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
> > > > microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
> > > >
> > > > On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat
> as
> > a
> > > > function of latitude,  Benthic surface area within the photic zone
> > > > decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes,
> > and the
> > > > areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are
> > mostly
> > > > the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
> > > > suitable as reef substrates.
> > > >
> > > > Bob Buddemeier
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also
> > have
> > > > very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
> > > > latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to
> > support
> > > > that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
> > > > actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing
> > human
> > > > impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
> > > > species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g.
> > Muir et
> > > > al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016,
> > Frontiers of
> > > > Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little
> work
> > been
> > > > done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!!
> There’s
> > > > also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction
> > from
> > > > repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
> > > > little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic
> > bullets:
> > > > drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while
> the
> > > > basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology
> > seems
> > > > to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
> > > >
> > > > Paul Muir
> > > >
> > > > Refs
> > > > Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> > > > Madin et al 2016
> > > > - Frontiers of Biogeography
> > > > <
> > https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
> >
> > > > 8(1)
> > > > response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> > > > <
> > https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
> >
> > > > 8(4)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hello all,
> > > > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that
> > the
> > > > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
> > > >
> > > > suppose
> > > >
> > > > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that
> > somewhat
> > > > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
> > > >
> > > > telling
> > > >
> > > > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
> > > >
> > > > conservation
> > > >
> > > > efforts.
> > > >
> > > > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the
> > north.
> > > > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about
> > what
> > > > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific
> outcome?
> > > >
> > > > At
> > > >
> > > > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
> > > >
> > > > expansion
> > > >
> > > > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community
> > is
> > > > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local
> adaptation
> > > > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’
> > through
> > > > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab
> and
> > > >
> > > > on
> > > >
> > > > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
> > > >
> > > > working
> > > >
> > > > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and
> > by
> > > >
> > > > we
> > > >
> > > > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most
> of
> > > >
> > > > it,
> > > >
> > > > achieve important advances. One might be better local management that
> > can
> > > > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation
> process
> > > > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> > > > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a
> pretty
> > > >
> > > > dire
> > > >
> > > > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> > > > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating
> > (unless
> > > >
> > > > we
> > > >
> > > > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
> > > >
> > > > part
> > > >
> > > > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those
> > many
> > > > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right
> > thing
> > > > to do, but an imperative.
> > > > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> > > > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> > > > Nicole
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > STEVE:
> > > >
> > > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> > > >
> > > > moment, I
> > > >
> > > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> > > >
> > > > pollution
> > > >
> > > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they
> are
> > > >
> > > > not
> > > >
> > > > just as important.
> > > >
> > > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are
> more
> > > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
> > > >
> > > > realize
> > > >
> > > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as
> transplant
> > > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
> > > >
> > > > will
> > > >
> > > > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and
> increasing
> > > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if
> warmer
> > > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point,
> the
> > > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
> > > >
> > > > scenario
> > > >
> > > > it
> > > >
> > > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> > > >
> > > > increasing
> > > >
> > > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
> > > >
> > > > addition
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Denny
> > > >
> > > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > > >
> > > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > > >
> > > > decade
> > > >
> > > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
> > > >
> > > > levels
> > > >
> > > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
> > > >
> > > > and
> > > >
> > > > 2026
> > > >
> > > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > > >
> > > > five
> > > >
> > > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
> > > >
> > > > (2017-2021)
> > > >
> > > > is
> > > >
> > > > also 93%.
> > > >
> > > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
> > > >
> > > > that
> > > >
> > > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
> > > >
> > > > science
> > > >
> > > > community react?
> > > >
> > > > This paper (
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > >
> > > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > > >
> > > > migration
> > > >
> > > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
> > > >
> > > > any
> > > >
> > > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
> > > >
> > > > to
> > > >
> > > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> > > >
> > > > new
> > > >
> > > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> > > >
> > > > the
> > > >
> > > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
> > > >
> > > > far
> > > >
> > > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> > > >
> > > > and
> > > >
> > > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Steve Mussman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > > > Oberlin OH 44074
> > > > (440) 935-4014
> > > >
> > > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> > > > Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Nicole L. Crane
> > > > Faculty, Cabrillo College
> > > > Natural and Applied Sciences
> > > > www.cabrillo.edu
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> > > > One People One Reef
> > > > onepeopleonereef.org
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> _______________________________________________
> Coral-List mailing list
> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list