[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore
Bruce Carlson
exallias2 at gmail.com
Tue Nov 8 17:22:28 UTC 2022
….and not to forget the Great Barrier Reef Living Coral Biobank project:
https://greatbarrierreeflegacy.org/projects/biobank
Bruce Carlson
> On Nov 7, 2022, at 3:47 PM, Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> I forgot to say that in Hawaii, the idea of an "ark" to save coral species
> is alive and well in public aquaria and a state of Hawaii coral growing
> facility. Between them, they have nearly all Hawaiian coral species in
> culture in captivity. Alive and well and protected. Of course, Hawaii
> only has a tiny fraction of the world's coral diversity.
> Cheers, Doug
>
> On Mon, Nov 7, 2022 at 2:52 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> Austin,
>> That sounds very grim- we really are at the "Noah's Ark" point where we
>> need a "coral bank" of cryopreserved gametes/embryos from endangered
>> species/regional populations as a last resort? Although we don't have data
>> as to which species are most at risk and the cryo is not fully worked out
>> for many (any?) coral species yet- but cryo techniques do exist for a very
>> wide range of other groups.
>>
>> Have you considered creating small refuge areas to preserve certain
>> species/populations during the bleaching events? Natural shading provides
>> good bleaching protection across a wide range of species (e.g. Muir et al
>> 2017), so in theory floating covers similar to those used on agricultural
>> and mining dams could be used to shade small (~1 ha) areas of reef just
>> during peak bleaching conditions. Bleaching events are typically very calm,
>> so the covers could be rolled out from dinghies in a semi-protected area of
>> reef for just a couple of weeks during the peak. The covers would need to
>> be anchored at each corner and possibly have an inflated margin
>> (engineering TBD). The fabric is cheap, very tough and light, can be heat
>> welded or sewn and is used by the square km in commercial greenhouses
>> around the world (e.g. SolaWeave). Such a refuge area could mitigate
>> against species extinctions and act as a reseeding area to enable timely
>> recovery of the surrounding reef area. Colonies of the rarest species could
>> be moved into the designated area ahead of time (once the idea is tested!).
>> Seems like an idea worth testing, but to my knowledge despite all the nutty
>> engineering and high tech schemes being funded at huge expense, this one
>> has never been trialed? Way too cheap and unsexy- perhaps if we propose a
>> nanofabric 3D printed under AI control........
>>
>> PAUL MUIR
>> Independent Consultant
>>
>> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 at 10:34 pm, Austin Bowden-Kerby <
>> abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Steve and Paul,
>>>
>>> For Kiribati, the hot pocket "super corals" of the shallow lagoon on
>>> Christmas (Kiritimati) Atoll all died out in the 2015-16 bleaching,
>>> even though they were bleaching resistant, the water apparently got
>>> just too hot. The very few Acropora survivors have all been from
>>> moderately warm reef flat tide pools, and only very few have been
>>> found: just two or three genotypes of only four Acropora species
>>> surviving on Kiritimati Atoll, and another three species on Tabuaeran
>>> Atoll.
>>>
>>> Because of this tragedy in Kiribati, we acutely recognize the
>>> possibility that a severe mass bleaching may one day wipe out our most
>>> heat adapted coral populations in our Fiji sites. So our focus now is
>>> to identify bleaching resistant coral candidates within hot pocket
>>> reefs- reefs that often reach 33, 34, 35 and even as high as 37 in
>>> places during summer. Then we move samples of these corals out and
>>> into cooler nurseries to protect them from possible death, should a
>>> strong bleaching event hit, because they are at their upper limit.
>>> Who knows how hot the reefs will get once the background water
>>> temperature gets too high? We have deployed temperature loggers and
>>> we keep searching for more candidates, as we prepare for the
>>> inevitable.
>>>
>>> This local translocation is under 10km, and serves to secure many
>>> species and genotypes of "super coral candidates" of the most
>>> vulnerable coral genus, Acropora. Now that they are secure, we can
>>> take our time figuring out how resistant the corals actually are. And
>>> because they come from rather yucky nearshore waters, we also suspect
>>> that some are disease resistant as well.
>>>
>>> We are starting up a second site now about 160km distant, as we feel
>>> that the clock is ticking for the hot pocket corals. We hope that
>>> others who work on reefs with strong thermal gradients and with intact
>>> hot pocket coral populations, will consider this strategy. The time
>>> has arrived for proactive hands-on coral focused climate change
>>> adaptation!
>>>
>>> Kind Regards,
>>>
>>> Austin
>>>
>>>
>>> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>>> Corals for Conservation
>>> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>>> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>>> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>>> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>>> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>>>
>>>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 1:35 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List
>>> <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Steve,
>>>> Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
>>>> bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
>>>> species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017,
>> 2021
>>>> (1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?
>>>>
>>>> BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here, I
>>> had
>>>> a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was appalling
>>> how
>>>> little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
>>>> corals around the world. We probably have already lost several species
>>> and
>>>> don't even know it.
>>>>
>>>> refs
>>>> 1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
>>>> 2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353
>>>>
>>>> PAUL MUIR
>>>> Independent Private Consultant
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi <spalumbi at stanford.edu>
>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were
>>> already
>>>>> corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that
>> change
>>> the
>>>>> tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed
>>> the
>>>>> adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is
>>> there to
>>>>> support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you
>> knew
>>> they
>>>>> were there, what would you do with that information? What would the
>>> local
>>>>> conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test
>>> these
>>>>> corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
>>>>>
>>>>> Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
>>>>> resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we
>>> have
>>>>> the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe
>>> it is
>>>>> only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save
>>> as
>>>>> much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100
>>> years to
>>>>> grow back from, how do we do this?
>>>>>
>>>>> Steve
>>>>>
>>>>> *******************************************
>>>>> Stephen Palumbi
>>>>> Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
>>>>> microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
>>>>>
>>>>> On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
>>>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat
>> as
>>> a
>>>>> function of latitude, Benthic surface area within the photic zone
>>>>> decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes,
>>> and the
>>>>> areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are
>>> mostly
>>>>> the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
>>>>> suitable as reef substrates.
>>>>>
>>>>> Bob Buddemeier
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
>>>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also
>>> have
>>>>> very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
>>>>> latitudinally limited by temperature and very little good data to
>>> support
>>>>> that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
>>>>> actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing
>>> human
>>>>> impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
>>>>> species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g.
>>> Muir et
>>>>> al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016,
>>> Frontiers of
>>>>> Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little
>> work
>>> been
>>>>> done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!!
>> There’s
>>>>> also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction
>>> from
>>>>> repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
>>>>> little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic
>>> bullets:
>>>>> drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while
>> the
>>>>> basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology
>>> seems
>>>>> to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
>>>>>
>>>>> Paul Muir
>>>>>
>>>>> Refs
>>>>> Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
>>>>> Madin et al 2016
>>>>> - Frontiers of Biogeography
>>>>> <
>>> https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
>>>
>>>>> 8(1)
>>>>> response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
>>>>> <
>>> https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
>>>
>>>>> 8(4)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
>>>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Hello all,
>>>>> I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that
>>> the
>>>>> trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
>>>>>
>>>>> suppose
>>>>>
>>>>> there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that
>>> somewhat
>>>>> gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
>>>>>
>>>>> telling
>>>>>
>>>>> the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
>>>>>
>>>>> conservation
>>>>>
>>>>> efforts.
>>>>>
>>>>> But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the
>>> north.
>>>>> In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about
>>> what
>>>>> would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific
>> outcome?
>>>>>
>>>>> At
>>>>>
>>>>> what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
>>>>>
>>>>> expansion
>>>>>
>>>>> is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community
>>> is
>>>>> actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local
>> adaptation
>>>>> happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’
>>> through
>>>>> genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab
>> and
>>>>>
>>>>> on
>>>>>
>>>>> reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
>>>>>
>>>>> working
>>>>>
>>>>> authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and
>>> by
>>>>>
>>>>> we
>>>>>
>>>>> I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most
>> of
>>>>>
>>>>> it,
>>>>>
>>>>> achieve important advances. One might be better local management that
>>> can
>>>>> buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation
>> process
>>>>> (which does seem to be happening in some places).
>>>>> So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a
>> pretty
>>>>>
>>>>> dire
>>>>>
>>>>> backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
>>>>> stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating
>>> (unless
>>>>>
>>>>> we
>>>>>
>>>>> look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
>>>>>
>>>>> part
>>>>>
>>>>> we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those
>>> many
>>>>> angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right
>>> thing
>>>>> to do, but an imperative.
>>>>> In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
>>>>> persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
>>>>> Nicole
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
>>>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> STEVE:
>>>>>
>>>>> I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
>>>>>
>>>>> moment, I
>>>>>
>>>>> will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
>>>>>
>>>>> pollution
>>>>>
>>>>> and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they
>> are
>>>>>
>>>>> not
>>>>>
>>>>> just as important.
>>>>>
>>>>> If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
>>>>> transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are
>> more
>>>>> akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
>>>>>
>>>>> realize
>>>>>
>>>>> that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as
>> transplant
>>>>> sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
>>>>>
>>>>> will
>>>>>
>>>>> increasingly limit options.Because of the larger rivers and
>> increasing
>>>>> tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
>>>>> Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
>>>>> fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if
>> warmer
>>>>> climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point,
>> the
>>>>> effects of sediment stress will increasingly dominate. In this
>>>>>
>>>>> scenario
>>>>>
>>>>> it
>>>>>
>>>>> is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
>>>>> sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
>>>>> implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
>>>>>
>>>>> increasing
>>>>>
>>>>> impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
>>>>>
>>>>> addition
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Denny
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
>>>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
>>>>>
>>>>> We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
>>>>>
>>>>> decade
>>>>>
>>>>> (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
>>>>> annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
>>>>> predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
>>>>>
>>>>> levels
>>>>>
>>>>> (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
>>>>>
>>>>> and
>>>>>
>>>>> 2026
>>>>>
>>>>> exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
>>>>>
>>>>> five
>>>>>
>>>>> year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
>>>>>
>>>>> (2017-2021)
>>>>>
>>>>> is
>>>>>
>>>>> also 93%.
>>>>>
>>>>> So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
>>>>> Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
>>>>>
>>>>> that
>>>>>
>>>>> 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
>>>>>
>>>>> science
>>>>>
>>>>> community react?
>>>>>
>>>>> This paper (
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
>>>>>
>>>>> suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
>>>>>
>>>>> migration
>>>>>
>>>>> is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
>>>>>
>>>>> any
>>>>>
>>>>> debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
>>>>>
>>>>> to
>>>>>
>>>>> communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
>>>>>
>>>>> new
>>>>>
>>>>> approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
>>>>>
>>>>> the
>>>>>
>>>>> truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
>>>>>
>>>>> far
>>>>>
>>>>> until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
>>>>>
>>>>> and
>>>>>
>>>>> depend on it for our survival”.
>>>>>
>>>>> Regards,
>>>>>
>>>>> Steve Mussman
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Coral-List mailing list
>>>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>>>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
>>>>> Oberlin OH 44074
>>>>> (440) 935-4014
>>>>>
>>>>> * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
>>>>> Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Coral-List mailing list
>>>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>>>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Nicole L. Crane
>>>>> Faculty, Cabrillo College
>>>>> Natural and Applied Sciences
>>>>> www.cabrillo.edu
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
>>>>> One People One Reef
>>>>> onepeopleonereef.org
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Coral-List mailing list
>>>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>>>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Coral-List mailing list
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>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
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