[Coral-List] amazing recovery of corals in the Southern Line Islands after bleaching mortality

Thu Nov 17 21:52:22 UTC 2022

Doug and all,

The coral populations of Kiritimati Atoll suffered as badly as those on
Jarvis. Of course Kiritimati atoll is much larger.  Overall, it suffered
100% mortality in the lagoon, 100% mortality on the reef flats I surveyed,
and 95% to 98% mortality elsewhere on the outer reefs surveyed, estimated
from my trip in June 2016, but confirmed by the Baum Lab at UBC. I was able
to return to the island multiple times until March 2020, when the pandemic
hit, and with Fisheries we created a small recovery nursery for some
Acropora species.

What is encouraging is that some Acropora corals which looked 100% dead on
the reef flats resurrected themselves, with tiny colonies appearing on the
edges of some former large colonies by 2017, and two species of finely
branched corymbose Acropora and some A.globiceps recruiting from larvae in
patches.  However parrotfish predation has since eliminated recruits in
waters deeper than 1-2 M, and parrotfish predation appears to be keeping
them confined to the extreme shallows and reef flats.  The field report is
at my Research Gate page *https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Austin
<https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Austin> Bowden-Kerby
<https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Austin_Bowden-Kerby>*   A modified
version is also in the book Active Coral Restoration
*https://www.jrosspub.com/science/environmental-science/active-coral-restoration.html
<https://www.jrosspub.com/science/environmental-science/active-coral-restoration.html>*

I recently watched Diving films posted on Youtube from 2015 which show the
coral populations before the 2015-16 mass bleaching hit. Some Acropora was
still present at depths. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loxy2-YxcR4&t=419s
and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82j4wrAqsrA   However, based on the
recent beach deposits, I believe that the coral population had already
changed from one dominated by Acropora, to one dominated by Pocillopora and
other species by 2015.  Does anyone have any data of any sort pre 1987, as
Kiritimati Atoll had the worst bleaching ever recorded in 1987, when the
open ocean got as high as 32C?

What is certain is that all three island groups of Kiribati are on the
leading edge of coral reef collapse due to its geographic position in
relation to hot El Nino ocean currents, plus cyclones can not form near the
equator to cool the waters off.  Secondly, these islands also make it
crystal clear that no degree of pristine water quality nor a lack of
fishing give any sort of resilience in the face of months and months of
condition two bleaching.  A third lesson is that the collapse of
coral reefs on the leading edge of climate change is clearly occurring as a
series of species phase shifts, from high diversity to low diversity, so
when various researchers proclaim "recovery!", it indicates to me that
there is a general lack of understanding. An alternative steady state is
not something we should proclaim as recovery, nor something we should
celebrate.

The general trend as I see it is that Acropora is replaced by Pocillopora,
and then Pocillopora is in time replaced by Porites or Montipora.  If this
is a valid observation, then others will eventually begin to see it in
their data.  Understanding such species phase shifts is basic to
understanding the impacts of climate change on coral reefs, which in turn
is essential to understanding what interventions might prevent the process
and reverse what is happening.

Seeing the dead and standing thickets of staghorn Acropora in the
Kiritimati lagoon on reef after reef impacted me deeply.  At that moment, I
realized that we had lost some amazing heat adapted corals, which likely
survived at temperatures >36C.  I also realized that heat adapted corals
from within similar hot pockets all over the planet are now jeopardized.
So if I had only gotten to Kiritimati earlier with that realization, I
could have moved multiple genotypes of each species out to the cooler reef
flats and to near the pass areas or on the outer reefs. The temperatures of
the open ocean during the mass bleaching got to 35-36C based on NOAA data,
similar to what the lagoon corals were already adapted to. But the Acropora
species which dominated the lagoon are now extinct on the atoll.  I
discussed that in my recent talk, given at ICRS. This is a more detailed
22-minute version of the talk:https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk   We plan to
launch this first coral-focused climate change adaptation strategy as
'Reefs of Hope", not as an NGO, but as a collaborative project, so that all
who want to join in can.  Please send me a letter if you or your
institution is interested in collaborating.

Kind Regards,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
https://www.corals4conservation.org
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>

On Fri, Nov 18, 2022 at 6:45 AM Phillip Dustan via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Dear Listers,
> Here is another paper on the bleaching that occurred in 2004 after the
> NatGeo article was published earlier that year.
>    Phil
>
> ATOLL RESEARCH BULLETIN
> NO. 551
> CATASTROPHIC CORAL MORTALITY IN THE REMOTE CENTRAL
> PACIFIC OCEAN: KIRABATI PHOENIX ISLANDS
> BY
> ABIGAIL ALLING, ORLA DOHERTY, HEATHER LOGAN,
> LINDSEY FELDMAN, AND PHILLIP DUSTAN
> ISSUED BY
> NATIONAL MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY
> SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION
> WASHINGTON, D.C. U.S.A.
> DECEMBER
>
> On Thu, Nov 17, 2022 at 10:11 AM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > There are also now papers documenting what happened during the last
> > bleaching events at Jarvis Island in the Line Is.  Jarvis is a tiny US
> > island that is quite close to the equator, and if you remember maps of
> sea
> > surface temperature during El Ninos, typically there is a narrow tongue
> of
> > hot water that extends westward from South America, right on the equator.
> > The first paper documents over 98% coral mortality on Jarvis from those
> El
> > Nino events.  The second documents succession during the first 3 years
> > after bleaching, with the abundance of new recruits increasing by the end
> > of three years.  But the formerly dominant Pocillopora and Montipora
> > abundances remain low so far.
> >
> > In the Southern Line Islands featured in the video, those islands are
> well
> > south of Jarvis and so likely were not in that hot water tongue and had
> > much less heat stress, and had "only" about 50% mortality.  One would
> guess
> > that recovery from 98% mortality might take longer than from 50%
> > mortality.  But we also might worry that the long-term effects might be
> > greater, and it might even not regain its former coral cover, let alone
> > composition.  I wonder if Jarvis's 98% mortality might be the highest
> > mortality yet reported from a bleaching event?
> >
> > https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-019-01838-0
> >
> > https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-022-02246-7
> >
> > Not open-access.  If you become a member of the International Coral Reef
> > society, you gain access to all issues of this journal, Coral Reefs, at a
> > bargain price.  If not, check for the corresponding author's email
> address.
> >
> > Cheers, Doug
> >
> >
> > On Mon, Oct 31, 2022 at 2:15 PM Douglas Fenner <
> > douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > Once devastated, these Pacific reefs have seen an amazing rebirth
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/once-devastated-these-pacific-reefs-have-seen-an-amazing-rebirth-feature
> > >
> > > Cheers, Doug
> > >
> > > --
> > > Douglas Fenner
> > > Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> > > NOAA Fisheries Service
> > > Pacific Islands Regional Office
> > > Honolulu
> > > and:
> > > Coral Reef Consulting
> > > PO Box 997390
> > > Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
> > >
> > > Switching to renewable energy could save trillions-up to $12 TRILLION
> by
> > > 2050.
> > > https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62892013
> > >
> > > 1 in 6 deaths worldwide can be attributed to pollution, new review
> shows
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/1-in-6-deaths-worldwide-can-be-attributed-to-pollution-new-review-shows/ar-AAXozQh
> > >
> > > UN: World on fast track to disaster, but we can avert it
> > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xBVD8r0aHQ
> > >
> > >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> Phillip Dustan PhD
> Charleston SC  29424
> 843-953-8086 office
> 843-224-3321 (mobile)
>
> "When we try to pick out anything by itself
> we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
> that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
> *                                         John Muir 1869*
>
> *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
> *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
> *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
>
> *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
> TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
> Google Scholar Citations:
> https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
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