[Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human population trends

Fri Mar 17 22:12:08 UTC 2023

Hi Austin:

The Earth is a patchwork of different ecosystem types, different levels of human and natural impact, and different lifestyles and sources of livelihood. By your own description, the Pacific Is you describe are overpopulated because there are more people living on them than the land mass they live on and surrounding fishing grounds can sustain - without importing resources from outside their islands (which they don’t have the $ for or goods to trade for money to buy non-local goods). That is exactly the definition of exceeding their island’s carrying capacity. The condition of their local coral reefs may be degraded because of bleaching but you also listed overfishing as a cause. Non-overfished reefs tend to have more climate resilience than fished reefs (stories told to be by Chuck Birkeland decades ago).

There are many other places on Earth where human communities can only persist if there is import of food and goods from outside (e.g. Collapse by Jared Diamond was all about this), and these are also places that are above carrying capacity. Many of the Caribbean island have populations too large for their land masses to support and only survive because ships and airplanes bring resources to them (including tourists with their $$$). In ‘Collapse’ Diamond recounts what happened in early Greenland days when human populations grew more that what could be supported by the land and sea, and then died out because they had no trade with Iceland or Europe. So this is nothing new. There are many other examples in the book about humans outgrowing their resources and their populations collapsing (hench the title of the book) and they are mostly pre-industrial.

Do I feel really bad for the people living on these Pacific islands right now? Of course I do, but that doesn’t mean that I think that everyone should start sending them more and more food so that their populations increase further and they trend further into calorie debt.

Carrying capacity is integral to the concept of overpopulation… in fact by definition! Whether it be people or lemmings or wolves and deer. In today’s world, people decry that one part of the world is not saving another part of the world from hunger or whatever, and colonialism is blamed for the state of affairs of these poor nations, because they were taken advantage of by European colonial powers over the past few centuries. But internal corruption and poor self-governance  is usually the biggest problem most poor countries face NOW, and it’s almost impossible to fix these issues from outside. Take the sad case of Haiti where billions have been spent to try to fix what is basically a failed state with thugs overrunning the country. Venezuela is another example and this one is not a poor country just a corrupt one and you can’t blame Spain for this one. Mexico is headed that way even though it has highly educated people who could try to turn the country around.

I just watched an interesting (but too violent for me) movie titled The Woman King about the Kingdom of Dahomey back in the 18th and 19th centuries, when African nations were quite complicit in the slave trade because their kings were making lots of money helping European slave traders capture (in fact they did the capturing for the Europeans) people from competing tribes, a type of symbiosis if you will.

Humans for the most part (as a species) are nasty animals and have always been since we evolved from whichever hominid preceded us.

To end my missive, yes globalization is impacting all corners of the Earth and much to the detriment of some places and their inhabitants more than other and often not because of anything dramatic they are doing (e.g. low C footprint). The current ‘woke’ tendency is to try to blame all these global woes on a small number (ca. 2,750 people worldwide) of super billionaires for all the ills of the world. However, all the rest of us 8 billion people share the blame every day we live and breathe.

Alina

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Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
CISME Instruments LLC
210 Braxlo Lane,
Wilmington NC 28409 USA
AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
cell: 910-200-3913<tel:(910)%20200-3913>
EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com>

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From: Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2023 3:49 PM
To: Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
Cc: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>; coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human population trends

Dear Alina, Doug, and Coral List community,

While population pressure is indeed driving so much of the planetary level destruction and climate change, there is a very large disconnect between human population and coral reef decline.  The entire Pacific Islands- all of them, including Hawaii and the island parts of PNG, US and French islands contain about 3 million people.  This is roughly equivalent to the population of Puerto Rico.  While the island of Hispaniola has over 22 million!  Despite the low population to reef ratio of the Pacific Islands, many of the coral reefs are overfished and badly impacted by coral bleaching.  The overfishing is related to the fact that the majority of people in the region participate marginally in the global economy, with most of their food coming from what they can catch in the sea and grow on the land.  Cash is very hard to come by, and saleable or exportable resources are already badly depleted: sea cucumbers, tridacnid clams, lobsters, etc.   The poverty level for a family of 5-7 in Fiji is $3,500. USD per year- but that is used for statistical purposes only, as there is no welfare system.  50% of the population of Fiji live below that level!   In the Solomon Islands, PNG, and Vanuatu, people are even more poor and so they still mostly live in thatched houses and use wood fires for cooking.  If the environment can not feed them, they starve.  Cyclone impacts are horrific and outside aid often comes late and is insufficient. Some remote communities in Vanuatu are right now going hungry due to the two cyclones which hit two weeks ago.  These people are not a burden on the earth's climate, yet they are on the leading edge of climate change impacts.  Climate change and poverty and a lack of alternative food sources is what is driving coral reef decline here and in the undeveloped parts of the world.

I have just yesterday returned from Moturiki Island, where on most reefs over a wide area, 99% of Acropora corals are severely bleached- yet again, the 4th major bleaching for that site.  Many of the corals have started to die, but fortunately due to cloudy and windy weather, and the two cyclones which passed to the West of Fiji, our sites at Malolo, on the western reefs have been spared a mass bleaching, and the open ocean temperature has cooled down from 30C to 29C.  Also in Moturiki, which is supposedly condition one, roughly 50% of Acropora still retains the color of algal symbionts on the shaded underneath parts, so we expect these corals to mostly recover.  Our strategy is to collect as many of the unbleached corals as we can before the recovery of partially bleached corals happens, to create a collection of known bleaching resistant corals.

Because Porites and massive species are doing much better, and as Acropora is the first group to die out due to bleaching stress, Acropora is our primary focus.   Acropora is also essential for planktivorous fish, which the Porites and other massive species simply do not provide.  Pocillopora is second in importance as far as habitat for small fish, but it is considerably more resilient than Acropora, and it tends to increase on bleaching stressed reefs as the Acropora declines.   Measures of coral cover, like that reported by GCRMN, or bleaching reported as percent of all corals bleached- without any differentiation between genera, are failing to record the phase shift in species which is occurring on reefs throughout the Pacific region.  The collapse of coral reefs in the face of climate change is clearly occurring as a series of phase shifts in species composition, but few have connected the dots of information as monitoring data is scant.  My conclusion is backed up in some long term data sets, and comes from first hand observation and interviews with local communities.   Fiji and GBR have fortunately resisted the phase shift quite well, as Acropora larval sources have been retained, with a complete phase shift to Pocillopora dominance seen in the Society Islands, and now the phase shift is happening in Kiribati reefs and the Line Islands, with numerous local Acropora extinctions, and with low diversity reefs dominated by Porites rus or Montipora sp.  I might add that most reefs of the Line Islands have virtually no fishing pressure, and the stress is 100% related to bleaching.

Unfortunately this time around, the Lau island group of islands to the East of Fiji, as well as southern Tonga have been severely impacted by bleaching, and although there are no reports coming in yet, the stress, based on the NOAA data, has been particularly severe.  So I expect a massive die-off of Acropora in both island groups.  The problem is that these reefs are directly upcurrent of the main islands of Fiji during normal weather patterns.  In the past they were likely the source of excellent larval-based recovery after severe bleaching on Fiji's reefs, but now will that high resilience be changed?

On closing, I am happy to report that the village communities just re established their no-take Tabu areas in two sites, and the plan is to use the bleaching resistant corals that we collect, once the cool season arrives, as part of a community-focused project to restore and increase coral cover within the Tabu areas, planting coral fragments onto A-frames which help with survival and rapid growth, while serving as immediate fish habitat.  Multiple genets of each species are planted together to encourage effective spawning once the corals mature.  For those interested, more details on these strategies can be found in my recent paper, link below.

Kind regards,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
https://www.corals4conservation.org
Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:  https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies  https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/ <https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>

Teitei Livelihoods Centre
Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
(679) 938-6437
http:/www.<http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji>teiteifiji.org<http://teiteifiji.org>
http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/

On Sat, Mar 18, 2023 at 1:36 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>> wrote:
Here is even a better resource for looking at human population trends by country, by age group and many more options. It’s interactive. Lots of fun.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/900

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Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
CISME Instruments LLC
210 Braxlo Lane,
Wilmington NC 28409 USA
AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
cell: 910-200-3913<tel:(910)%20200-3913>
EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com><mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com>>

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From: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com<mailto:douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>>
Sent: Monday, March 13, 2023 11:08 PM
To: Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com>>
Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the Caribbean

I certainly agree that "the more people, the more disturbance" so long as each person does about as much.  Population is very much a problem.  But it is only part of the problem.

Yes, population is a problem, no, there is no chance it will get solved in time for saving reefs, but it is going to resolve itself without much of any intervention, and that is already well underway.  Meantime, you don't mention over-consumption, and few others want to talk about it either.  But then, very very few people want to reduce their consumption, everyone wants the economy to grow as much as possible, get richer, spend more, throw more away.  Economy size and wealth drive some of the environmental damage, like climate change, plastic trash, and other aspects.  Population and consumption multiply each other in producing environmental damage  Technology seems about our only semi-realistic hope.

As for population, birth rates are way down in almost all countries.  The peak birth rate for the world was way back in 1968, it has fallen a lot since then.  They are way below replacement in China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Italy, and several other countries.  Birth rate in the US is now nearly down to 1.7 children per mother on the average, and replacement is 2.1 (population in the US continues to grow, but slowly, due to immigration).  Long been below replacement in most of what was the Soviet Union, if I remember.  Europe is going to lose population.  Now, as it has long been stated for Japan, the countries with very low birth rates are facing mounting problems due to much lower numbers of people of working age, paying to support more people at retirement age.  In developed economies, children are expensive, women want to work, and child care is expensive, so they choose to have fewer children.  It is the "demographic transition" and it is very widespread.

Check it out:   www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8><http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8>

The Great People Shortage is coming — and it's going to cause global economic chaos
https://www.businessinsider.com/great-labor-shortage-looming-population-decline-disaster-global-economy-2022-10

"By the end of this century, the global population will have decreased by 1 billion people from its peak, according to a 2020 analysis by researchers at the Gates Foundation, and in the most extreme scenario, the population could decline by almost 2 billion from where it is today, to just over 6 billion.  The German working population will have declined<https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext> by a third, based on the average scenario from the researchers, and in Italy, Spain, and Greece it will have declined by more than half. Poland, Portugal, Romania, Japan, and China will all lose up to two-thirds of their labor force, according to the projections. The looming population decline is a wake-up call: Instead of the "population bomb" that some have feared for decades, we will face a population drop, and it will have enormous consequences for the world's prosperity."
China will lose half its population by the end of the century — and the ripple effects will be catastrophic
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-shrinking-population-grim-omen-110400765.html

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3203833/chinas-shrinking-working-age-population-send-ripples-through-global-economy           "China’s fertility rate decreased from 2.6 in the late 1980s to just 1.15 last year, well below the 2.1 needed to replace deaths."

There are articles like this popping up all over the web now.

So, in terms of huge population damaging the environment, the future population decreases look encouraging, though it will take too much time to get there to help reefs that are forecast to be hit hard within 2-3 decades.

Cheers, Doug

On Mon, Mar 13, 2023 at 7:46 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov><mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>> wrote:
Thanks Gene for once again weaving the data into a cohesive scenario that starts with:  too many people doing what people do best.... disturbing the natural environment to grow food and other human life necessities. The more people the more disturbance. And this has been going on for millenia.  After all, humanity started in Africa. Most of what you describe has been happening long before the industrial revolution and the rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations responsible for recent global warming.  Anthropogenic climate and environmental change and degradation has been occurring for much longer than the rise of global temperature since the boom in use of fossil fuels. And coral reefs are not the only ecosystems affected by human activity.  If you could ask the Sargassum how they feel about all this, they would tell us they love it! To paraphrase a great line from Encanto ("We don't talk about Bruno"): humanity doesn't want to talk about human overpopulation and the cumulative impact of now 8 billion people going about their daily business. There were only 2 billion people on Earth 100 years ago. Not wonder everything is falling apart! Only 4 % of mammal biomass is made up of mammal wildlife. What happened to all the wildlife? They have been killed off as food or decimated by loss of habitat. Their biomass has been replaced by humans and our food animals (plus a few % of pets).

Can't save coral reefs if we have a bigger structural problem to deal with. And yes, social inequality and inequity is a contributing factor but not the main one.

Dr. Alina M. Szmant,  CEO
CISME Instruments LLC

-------- Original message --------
From: Eugene Shinn via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov><mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>>
Date: 3/13/23 1:19 PM (GMT-05:00)
To: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov><mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>
Subject: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the Caribbean

    As a geologist/biologist diving the Fla Keys and much of the
Caribbean long before the coral-list, Brian LaPointe, and Marine
Sanctuaries existed, I have watched corals diseases develop and other
crises come and go. HoweverI do not recall a time when Sargassum growth
exploded such as it has in the past 2 decades. Of course there were no
satellites for observing the explosive growth back then, nevertheless we
would have experienced abundant floating seaweed accumulating on beaches
such as it has in the past 2 decades.During these recent decades  the
explosive growth has been building year after year. Now the newest area
of weed forms a belt stretching from West Africa to the Caribbean and
beyond and it keeps enlarging. The Amazon and other rivers have often
been blamed in the past even though it seems difficult for those waters
to reach West Africa. Let’s see, can we blame ballast water and/or
cruise ships? Climate Change? Upwelling? Cosmic Rays? There must be
something out there that affects that region on a yearly basis. Whatever
it is satellite images indicate it is coming from Africa, especially
during our summer months. I once read some technical papers that stated
the Amazon Rain Forrest receives its essential nutrients mainly during
our winter months. It seems there is a this red/brown powder that
accumulates on limbs and leaves high up in Amazon forest trees. Because
of it some limbs even sprout rThat powder has been shown to contain
essential nutrients. What is it? During our summer months that belt of
powder moves northward and forms a thin soil over the prevailing
limestone of Caribbean Islands. Some even reach the Florida Keys and
Bermuda. It forms a thin hard laminated red/brown crust in the Florida
Keys that has been forming for several thousand years. That crust
contains clay minerals not native to the Keys, or Bermuda. We even have
an agricultural area west of Miami called the Red-lands. I wonder what
it is and how did it get there?

Of course long-time readers of the list know exactly what I am writing
about. Just suppose that stuff gets sprinkled on the water forming a
belt that spans the Atlantic Ocean. I wonder if it might stimulate the
growth of a floating plant held afloat by small gas filled floats?

Why had it not affected the seaweed, and the corals, or caused red tides
in the past?  Dr. Joe Prospero, now retired from the U. of Miami Marine
Lab  monitored
African dust flux at Barbados starting in 1965. That  monitoring is
on-going. There was little dust in the past when there was far less
people/agriculture in the Schell desert of North Africa and less
pesticides used to control Locusts outbreaks and mosquitoes. There was
also a hundred-mile-wide lake Chad  there in 1960 that has evaporated
down to only a few miles wide. It’s exposed lake bed, and whatever had
accumulated in it, is now blowing across the Atlantic. Need I say more?

After all these years I keep wondering why some organization has not
studied the situation? We at the USGS monitored and cultured live
bacteria in the dust and noted the presence of numerous viruses in the
late 1990s. While the military followed our work, because of bioterror
implications, there was little interest within our organization. Only
the US Academy of Environmental medicine appreciated the work because of
the clear evidence of medical effects on humans, especially on Caribbean
Islands. Trying to understand why there was so little interest in the
projectI keep coming back to the fact that no one is  going to make
money determining if that dust is the cause of coral, and medical
effects. Who benefits if you can’t stop it? Of course the many thousands
with respiratory diseases in the Caribbean and Eastern Bahamas might
benefit but does that put any money in anyone's pocket? And what can be
done to stop it?  Oh Well, I will continue to watch and wait. I thank
Doug Fenner for pointing out this latest explosion of Sargassium and
will wait for his short  reply. Gene
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