[Coral-List] coral reefs record-breaking year; new tipping points report section on coral reefs

Sun Jan 7 02:58:14 UTC 2024

Alina,
     Thank you for pointing this out, good point!
     I used the report's "search" facility for the word "overpopulation"
but nothing was found, and although many instances of the word "population"
occur in the document, none of them that I could find talked
about overpopulation.  So you are correct that it was omitted, and I agree
with you that that is a major omission and if nobody talks about the causes
of the degradation of the environment, it can't be fixed.  I contend that
there is vigorous discussion of the ultimate causes.  A minor point is that
a photo of a destroyed forest only demonstrates some of the damage humans
do, not that overpopulation was the cause.  Humans have been destroying
forests (such as slash and burn) for thousands of
years before overpopulation even started.  Humans are the most destructive
species on this planet, and overpopulation certainly greatly multiplies the
damage we do, no question.
      However, this is a document about "tipping points" and not the root
causes of all environmental damage by humans.  And MANY other documents and
fora discuss that problem at length.  Further, you, as usual, mention only
one of the three main root causes, overpopulation, and don't mention the
other two, overconsumption and technology, although in the past you've
agreed they have a role as well.
       As I've said over and over, overpopulation is not something that any
living human can end soon enough to save coral reefs, and the world
population growth rate peaked in 1965, and it is on course to be solved by
the demographic transition.  China, long the largest population country, is
already down to only 1.1 children per mother (way, way below replacement at
2.1), its population will be drastically diminishing in the coming decades
and is projected to decrease by 500 million by 2100.  Many other countries
are also on a course to have decreasing populations and India is already
down to 2.1 children per mother, replacement (but their population will
continue to grow for some time due to the large number of young people
having children.  Population has enormous inertia.  India is developing
rapidly and likely will follow China in having births continue to shift to
lower levels well below replacement, and then their population will start
to decrease like China's.).  For the few countries that continue to have
rapidly growing populations the best solution is development which
drastically reduces population growth, and the best thing we can do is to
provide free, voluntary family planning for everyone on the planet who
wants it and cannot afford it, prioritizing those countries that need it
most.  Rich countries need to make a MUCH larger effort to do that, it will
cost peanuts and yield great dividends for humanity and so many individuals.
       Our best hope of reducing the ultimate causes of the devastation
that humans are causing to nature including coral reefs is to reduce
overconsumption and use technology to reduce all sorts of impacts.  We need
to stop pursuing endless economic growth in countries that are already
wealthy (Constanza et al, 2023).  Wealthy countries don't need further
economic growth, but they need to help those in their country at the bottom
out of poverty, as well the world needs to help those countries at
the bottom grow out of poverty.

        But thank you for pointing out this omission in this report.  I
just sent a message to the authors of the tipping point report recommending
that they add a short summary of the ultimate causes, but recognizing that
is not what their report is focussed on.
        Cheers, Doug

Costanza, R. 2023. To build a better world, stop chasing economic growth.
Nature 624: 519-521.

The year 2024 must be a turning point for shifting policies away from gross
domestic product and towards sustainable well-being. Here’s why and how.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04029-8

Fenner, D. 2022. What are the ultimate causes of coral reef decline, and
what can we do about them? Reef Encounter 37(2): 15-22.

On Sat, Jan 6, 2024 at 5:22 AM Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
wrote:

> Sadly, there is not even one reference to the role that human
> overpopulation plays in this 'story', even though photos show clear
> evidence of it, such as photo of clear cutting of forests. When the root
> cause of a problem is not clearly identified and addressed, then there is
> no hope of any meaningful action to reverse the course of history. Humanity
> has it's proverbial head buried in the sand, and we are doomed. Very
> depressing and tragic that we are bringing down other species and
> ecosystems along with our own human-based enterprise.
>
>
> *************************************************************************
> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
> CISME Instruments LLC
> 210 Braxlo Lane,
> Wilmington NC 28409 USA
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> EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com
>
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>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> On Behalf Of
> Douglas Fenner via Coral-List
> Sent: Thursday, December 14, 2023 9:57 PM
> To: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> Subject: [Coral-List] coral reefs record-breaking year; new tipping points
> report section on coral reefs
>
> Coral reefs in peril in a record-breaking year
>
> https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4532
>
> ---------------------------
>
> Short Nature article pointing to the tipping points report
>
> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03849-y
>
> Global Tipping Points report
>
> https://global-tipping-points.org/
>
> In Section 1, "Earth system tipping points"
>
> https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/
>
> In "Tipping points in the biosphere"
>
>
> https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/1-3-tipping-points-in-the-biosphere/
>
> Warm-water coral reefs  section
>
>
> https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/1-3-tipping-points-in-the-biosphere/1-3-2-current-state-of-knowledge-on-tipping-points-in-the-biosphere/1-3-2-7-coastal-ecosystems/
>
> The article is not long but is concentrated.  It is followed on the same
> page with a section on mangroves and seagrasses.
>
> The section is supported with an abundance of references to the original
> literature.  Just click on a reference to have a link to the paper open in
> a separate window.
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
> --
> Douglas Fenner
> Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> NOAA Fisheries Service
> Pacific Islands Regional Office
> Honolulu
> and:
> Coral Reef Consulting
> PO Box 997390
> Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
>
> World's richest 1% emit as much as 5 billion people
> https://makerichpolluterspay.org/climate-equality-report/
>
> Huge expansion of fossil fuels planned, will be very destructive
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report
>
> "without policy changes, the world will heat up enough by the end of the
> century that more than 2 billion people will live in life-threatening hot
> climates"         Will you be in that area???
>
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-sounding-alarm-dangerous-problem-123000792.html
>
> World subsidies for fossil fuels reached an all-time high of over $1
> TRILLION in 2022, the last year for which data is available.  The subsidies
> MUST end.
>
>
> https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/
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