[Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest recorded sea surface temperature

Sun Jul 30 16:17:54 UTC 2023

Hi Doug,

Events unfolding in Florida appear to be a game changer.

The magnitude of the bleaching is going to make it all but impossible for anyone involved in any way with coral reefs to continue to downplay the role of warming oceans. I’m already seeing and hearing long-overdue narratives emerging from sources who have up until now been contorting themselves in every way possible in an effort to avoid taking a firm public stance on climate change. Suddenly, “#action on climate change” is gaining traction and legitimacy in both the scuba diving and restoration worlds. Perhaps this will be the silver lining in these otherwise disheartening times. While many of us resist Austin’s call for radical action to be taken to control butterflyfish, his overall approach to revising restoration goals should ring true to everyone involved. Desperate times really do call for desperate measures.

Regards,

Steve

Sent from EarthLink Mobile mail

On 7/28/23, 8:26 PM, Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

The reports say that 100% of the corals at Sombrero Reef in the

Florida Keys have died of bleaching from the hot water. In the past, some

of the worst mass bleaching events have killed up to 90% of the corals at

various locations, but I don't remember any reports of 100% of some

reef killed. Have any killed 100% before? Two species of fire coral in

the Eastern Pacific were driven to regional extinction by mass coral

bleaching events in the past (Glynn). One coral at Chagos (*Diploastrea

heliopora*) was driven to local extinction in the Chagos archipelago by

mass coral bleaching and another coral (*Ctenella chagius*) was driven very

near to global extinction (Sheppard et al). Pillar coral in the western

Atlantic is teetering on the brink of global extinction, mostly from

disease, but could bleaching push it over the edge? El Nino is currently

just getting started. By the time it gets going closer to full blast, it

will be the southern hemisphere's turn to have summer, and it could be

worse than what is happening now in Florida, couldn't it???

So, is this the beginning of the end of coral reefs as we know them,

which will be replaced by algae gardens with fewer fish and many other

organisms missing?? Will reefs with 100% coral death from high

temperatures become the rule instead of the exception? How many corals

will go functionally extinct or even globally extinct? How would we

recover from that??

I notice reports that some restoration projects are quickly moving

the corals in their gardens into aquaria that can be kept below bleaching

temperatures. That's smart. That suggests that project people are not

confident that their corals would survive these current conditions. So all

this is going to happen more frequently in the future, and the temperatures

will get even higher, because of global warming, won't it?? I'm reminded

of some institutions in temperate climates that have palm trees in large

pots. They have a device that lets them wheel them inside buildings when

the temperatures get too cold for them. Then move them back out when it

warms up. Are we going to move nursery corals indoors in every heat wave,

then back out after? That's better than letting them cook to death. Maybe

we could move the natural corals on the reefs indoors too. No, there are

too many of them, not possible, plus you'd have to break every one off the

reef, that would take way too long. Not possible.

I think all this means that Austin was exactly right, move as many

resilient corals as you can into water that won't get so hot, that would

greatly increase their survival chances. That is, if you have any such

place.

So if heat waves like this kill near 100% of the natural corals many

places, over and over again, can restoration recover the natural reefs as

fast as global warming can kill them?? Hundreds of thousands of square

miles of coral reef in the world? And those corals that are planted out to

restore reefs, in the next heat wave get killed, then the corals in the

aquaria are put out into nurseries and when large enough are planted on the

reef. And then another heat wave kills them and the whole thing happens

all over again, over and over again. Is all that effort and expense worth

it? Do you see some other future for natural reefs?? I don't, much as I

would love to. Coral restoration may become like the ancient Greek legend

of Sysiphus, who has to push a large rock up a mountain, and then it rolls

down, and he has to do it again for eternity.

And I wonder about those "super corals" that are being selected for

the ability to withstand higher than normal temperatures. Are they able to

survive in the current temperatures that Florida has??? I now envision a

lengthy race between increasing water temperatures on reefs in heat waves,

and efforts to breed ever greater ability to withstand heat, trying to

breed coral tolerance faster than the temperatures of heat waves increase.

Who is going to win that race? Do we want to bet the survival of coral

reefs on the outcome? (do we have any choice???)

One scientist in one of the stories said that we need to prepare

for the future. Yes. And just how are we going to do that?? Take a hand

fan out over a reef and sit in a boat waving the fan over the water to cool

it? Snorkel on the surface over the coral to shade them? There are much

better ways to cool reefs, like piping up cold, deep water. I don't know

anyone who is trying that. Wouldn't be a trivial thing to try to

do, certainly would be impossible for more than just tiny patches of high

value reef. Austin says that shades can be put over coral nurseries to

shade them and he is surely right and it is a good idea. But what about

the natural corals, the hundreds of thousands of square kilometers and

miles of reefs? Can we shade or cool them? No way currently I know of.

Bottom line, I don't see a feasible way of saving corals short of

quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or very close to it.

And we, as a species, are a LONG way from doing that. We haven't even

BEGUN to slow the rate of increase in CO2 in the atmosphere yet.

And it looks like we don't have any time left, the coral reef

armageddon appears to have begun. Kiss your favorite reef goodbye??

Cheers, Doug

On Tue, Jul 25, 2023 at 7:17 PM Douglas Fenner

wrote:

> Hottest sea surface temperature recorded anywhere in the world, ever.

> 101.1F

>

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-just-had-the-hottest-recorded-ocean-temperature-heres-what-that-means-for-the-environment-215110797.html

>

> 100% coral mortality at Sombrero Reef in the Keys. Also most of the

> corals in the Looe Key nursery have died.

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/hot-tub-water-temperatures-off-183657140.html

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/water-tip-florida-hits-hot-000913172.html

>

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-ocean-temperatures-rise-above-213944171.html

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/extreme-heat-wipes-coral-reef-195403237.html

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/101-1-degrees-water-temperatures-214600885.html

>

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/ocean-temperatures-around-south-florida-223041666.html

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-lab-races-save-203112888.html

>

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-everglades-water-temperatures-reach-170400166.html

>

> Mass coral bleaching predicted:

>

>

> https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/hot-florida-sea-surface-temperatures-coral-bleaching-event

>

> Cheers, Doug

>

> --

> Douglas Fenner

> Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor

> NOAA Fisheries Service

> Pacific Islands Regional Office

> Honolulu

> and:

> Coral Reef Consulting

> PO Box 997390

> Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298 USA

>

> One recent study estimates over 61,000 people died from heat during

> Europe's record-breaking summer last year.

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-breaking-heat-bakes-us-014459083.html

>

> 1 million Florida buildings will be overrun by sea-level rise, new study

> shows, at a cost of $261-624 BILLION

>

>

> https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-million-florida-buildings-overrun-091203340.html

>

> Scientists size up human predatory footprint

> Humans are the ultimate predators, trapping, hunting, or otherwise

> exploiting 15,000 species of vertebrates—300 times more species than

> jaguars and 113 times more than great white sharks.

>

> https://www.science.org/content/article/news-glance-muscular-dystrophy-therapy-lab-grown-chicken-and-humans-toll-wildlife

>

>

_______________________________________________

Coral-List mailing list

Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov

https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list